Lebron Sweepstakes

By the time this post shows up, it will be 123 days and change before the Lebron Sweepstakes really start.  Let’s be clear about a few things:

This is not JUST about Lebron.

This will NOT be resolved on July 1st as much as both Knick and Cavalier fan bases would want it to be.

This will have some kind of negative impact.

Let me begin by reiterating how big this decision will be for basketball as a whole.  Depending on where he goes, Lebron will be viewed as the savior/hometown hero or villain/traitor.  That’s just fanbase wise.  His economic impact will be felt.  Either he jilts the world’s number one market or destroys basketball in yet another small town that is desperate to root for a winner.

As a passionate Knick fan, you know what I think Lebron should do.  He should forget all that mushy stuff about hometown hero makes good stuff and take over the world by being a star on Broadway.  But like I said this Lebron sweepstakes isn’t just about him and his decision.  Its about more than that.

Most sports fans know that the NFL is headed towards a year in which it will play without a salary cap due to owners and the players association not being able to come together on a resolution for a new collective bargaining agreement.  But David Stern dropped a bombshell on everyone during All Star weekend when he released the info that the NBA will be losing $400 million this year and for the past 3 years have been averaging $200 million.  The numbers there tell you how absolutely important it is, for the NBA to readjust its CBA which also comes due in 2011 the same year we may see an NFL lock out.  We can all blame it on the bad economy and all that but there are plenty of reasons why the NBA is in its current state and it has a lot to do with what Bill Simmons, ESPN writer, wrote about in his latest column in which competitively many teams find reason to quit on seasons midway through yet unfairly do so after having collected a season ticket holder’s commitment to buy a season.  That’s one of the problems.

But David Stern knows what he has at stake here.  No player of Lebron James magnitude at the apex of his abilities has ever entered free agency with a legitimate chance at leaving to another team.  But Stern’s hands are tied.  Lebron’s decision will play itself out in many forms.  Let’s consider for a moment that many things will happen as a result of Lebron’s decision.  His decision will effect where D-Wade goes.  His decision will affect Chris Bosh’s next home.  His decision will play into where Chris Paul may want to play in 2011.  Where Carmello stands also that year.  What if Carlos Boozer opts out this year from the Jazz?  Deron Williams openly questioned Jazz management after friend Ronnie Brewer was traded.  So many people will sit and wait out King James.

Let’s first consider what Lebron is looking for.  I’m going to simplify it with just a few credentials because I believe Lebron on any team is at best (meaning a really bad team) a guaranteed 20 game improvement.  Seriously.  He’s that good with his teammates, takes pressure off everyone else, developing that killer instinct, getting calls from refs, and makes your home arena a sell out each night.  The great thing about Lebron is this, he understood the responsibility that came with being a super star and all the hype surrounding him and he made good on the promise and potential everyone saw in him.  He’s great, and an all time player and we’re just aching for the chance to crown him the best ever.*                                             *= kind of like Peyton Manning when he won his first title.  People were just so overjoyed that he finally won one and was beginning to justify all the “greatest ever” talk that they quickly labeled him.

So what’s he looking for?  Complementary pieces and legacy.  Money will not be the deciding factor.  He will have fame.  He will have everything else you can imagine.  What is his legacy going to be?  That’s the more important question that he will answer with this.

So who are the 7 and what are their chances?

NEVER GONNA HAPPEN:

Minnesota and Sacramento: 1,000,000 to 1:  Sure, they have pieces, but if he leaves Cleveland he won’t be going to even smaller cities and markets just for the sake of going.  That would be the dumbest move and I have too much respect for Lebron’s intelligence to say that its even an option.

New Jersey Nets: 50,000 to 1–  A year ago some Nets fans I know were making this big deal about a pending deal to move to Brooklyn, signed off by Jigga man, and using that business partnership to woo Lebron over to the Nets.  Well, since then the Nets have gone an abysmal 5-52, are on pace to average about 17 people per game and are about to be bought out by Russian Mark Cuban which I think is a wild card.  We don’t know what this guy’s capable of.  He could say “screw the salary cap, I will give Lebron whatever he wants, damned be the luxury tax”, but I have a feeling he still has no idea that he owns the Nets.

MAYBE BUT THERE’S TOO MUCH WORKING AGAINST US!

Miami Heat: 100 to 1- No state tax, sunny weather, big market.  All major pluses.  But if the Heat sign Wade which is their first priority, Lebron would have to take a pay cut and neither guy will be willing to do that.  If Lebron comes to the Heat he would be winning on Wade’s team.  Make no mistake, the rumors are just that, these two will NOT sign together.  No way, no how.**                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 **= I’m hoping that I said it enough times that the reverse jinx will work and they both come to NY.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS: 100 to 1–  What are the chances that Donald Sterling will turn his back on years and years of being stingy and frugal and somehow come to the realization that he could have as much a share of L.A. with Lebron as Kobe with the Lakers?  The Paper Clips have the pieces yet the biggest screw missing is the one in Sterling’s head that refuses to make the Clipper fan believe that salvation is headed there anytime soon.***                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ***= In truth this makes a lot of sense for Lebron.  The market, the supporting cast all make this a worthwile venture and its a market that Nike would be ok with and support.  But neither me, nor any other basketball or Paper Clip fan has any confidence in Sterling’s ability to asses the situation rationally and there fore can’t see a situation where Sterling will see the easy deal and make it.  He’d rather sign Joe Johnson to a max contract.  Which still isn’t bad but the fact that I’m confident they won’t make a push for Lebron is saddening for any fan of any decrepit franchise with a sliver of hope.

THE DARK HORSE WITH A SCARY AND LEGITEMATE SHOT:

CHICAGO BULLS: 10 to 1- He has Derrick Rose, and Joakim Noah to run with on a team that could have a sustained run of excellence for the next 10 years.  I mean excellence.  The Bulls have it all the sizable market, the complementary pieces and also a star already there.  But why aren’t they considered a better player for Lebron’s services?  Well, I’d like to re-enter the topic of legacy.  For Lebron its important.  Its crucial and its what’s driving his decision.  He wants to be the greatest.  Ever.  No one else to compare himself to.  Unfortunately there was this guy who came and became the best player ever, in Chicago.  “Michael Jordan, ever heard of him?”****                                                                                                                                         ****= Why the quotation marks?  Because I just said that in the Andy Bernard voice.  By the way, how crazy is it that I remember more of Andy’s lines from the last few episodes than Dwight in the Office?  Has there ever been a shift in popularity of one character to another?  Andy is getting very close to Dwight’s in terms of funny quotes and awesome moments.  That episode where he thought he was gay was priceless.

Lebron cares too much about carving out his own that he won’t do that.  Its not a place Lebron should go but a place that Wade should seriously consider and should be thinking of as his number one destination.

ALWAYS THE BRIDEGROOM NEVER THE BRIDE:

New York Knicks odds 5 to 1- Before Knick fans start gathering outside of my house please note that this is merely the chances of him landing there.  Like I said Lebron himself doesn’t know what he will do but just know the ball is in his court and no one outside of Lebron knows what he will do.  Know this, the Knicks can offer him the most of any team in terms of overall salary.  Yes, I’m talking about Nike and other under the table deals that would take place if he signed here.  I can’t put into perspective what Lebron does to any crowd.  Bill Simmons wrote it as presence.  Yes, he has a presence, everyone stands to notice him and acknowledge he is there.  What you haven’t talked about is what a stadium like MSG does for Lebron.  No other stadium can offer him that.  The chills, the excitement.  There aren’t better and more knowledgeable basketball fans than the ones that live here in NYC.  The playgrounds are like places of worship where gods are born, honing their craft to use their skills to bring people together.  Rucker Park is that underground place that even the best know and speak highly of.  The city of New York would be in a state of delirium if Lebron were to come here.

Let’s face it, they deserve it.  They’ve been screwed with mismanagement and terrible ownership.  Their best player in the last ten years was Latrell Sprewell.  Go ahead, let that sink in.  We’re stuck convincing ourselves that David Lee is amazing.  Of course he’s amazing, anyone can be on a bad team like the Knicks.  But also a guy like Lebron can immediately change that around.  He can draw attention away and create opportunities for guys that just were never there.  Donnie Walsh went all in when he traded picks and Jared Jeffries for the right to let the expiring T-Mac contract play itself out on their cap.  If he doesn’t get Lebron, Knick fans will feel shafted no matter how they end up acquiring.

This deal is important to the NBA because its their franchise leader going to the number one market in the world and becoming a star there for the next 10 years.  Its important because if this deal doesn’t go through this will murder all the hope for Knick fans and you may see a lot of them disappear or pick up curling.  The NBA needs desperately to put a winner on its grandest stage at MSG.  Lebron understands, but not in its fullness, how unbelievable it would be if he won a title in New York.  He would not only own this city but this country and the world by extension.*****                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 *****=  Out of towners might look at it as some New Yorker blowing the importance of his city out of proportion but let’s be real, its cause their jealous.

Knick fans have been waiting for this moment like the second coming but they see Jesus before they see Lebron because:

THE FAVORITE:

Cleveland Cavaliers 3 to 1 odds- I won’t lie to you.  This is my unbiased opinion.  This is the favorite.  They have everything.  They have teammates who adore him and worship the ground he walks on and a fan base that does the same.  An ownership team that has made it clear that they are willing to part the Red Sea to make sure he signs there.  More than all that, this is home.  Not just because he plays there but because he’s from Ohio.  Born and brought up.******                                                                                                                                                           ******= Which of course kills me everytime.  No one plays up the theory that Cleveland was a barren wasteland, in comes this kid from Akron who could possibly lift a franchise from out of the doldrums and they just happen to get the first pick in the draft that year.  Nothing fishy about that scenario?  Wasn’t like they were the worst team in the NBA.  Ok, moving on.

His community ties are still very much in tact.  He understands that they will live and die with this decision.  Are they appreciating every moment like its their last to see him in their beloved uniform?  Yes.  Are they going to give him carte blanche to do whatever he wants and defend him to the death?  Yes. *******                                                                                                        *******= Even if he killed a guy, left DNA evidence at the murder scene if the trial ever took place in Cleveland, how hard would it be to fathom that he would get off? (yes that was a veiled OJ reference.).  Or for more perspective, if there was sufficient evidence that Lebron raped a woman in a spa in I don’t know let’s pick-a-random-city-and-state-in-the-U.S., oh I got one, Eagle, Colorado and he bought his wife a yeah-I-messed-up-here’s-my-apology disguised as a multi million dollar ring, would Cavs fans irrationally defend Lebron and say that the woman was this sick perverse woman who had it coming.  Yeah.  That’s perspective for you.

But if he leaves will Lebron need secret service protection whenever the Knicks play the Cavs?  Yes.  Will there be rioting in the streets?  No, but maybe in chat rooms.  Those things could get fierce.  Will fans get irrational there and subsequently destroy Cleveland sports for a long time?  Yes.  No doubt about it.  He’s a once in a life time athlete.  He’s the hometown kid.  His window is wide open and his best days are still in front of him which is scary.  In someways he knows he owes it to Cleveland to see his development to the end.

SO WHAT WILL HAPPEN?

I won’t venture a guess as to where he will end up.  I am not convinced that Lebron knows where he’ll go either.  I will say this.  I’m pretty convinced one thing will happen, whether he signs with the Knicks or resigns with Cleveland, he will sign a max deal but with an opt out after 3 years.  None of these guys will leave dollars on the negotiating table but he will ask for and get the clause installed.  He’s smart enough to understand that if the Cavs don’t win this year and depending on how they lose, he will have to evaluate whether this roster as presently constructed has what it takes.  No matter how you slice it, this year’s playoffs will play a huge role in whether he resigns or he leaves.  If they lose Lebron will have to question whether they are ever going to win and its a legitimate question.

To leave, to go to the Knicks he would have to be convinced that the Cavs don’t have it.  Obviously he’d have to justify it somehow and it will be interesting to see what transpires in the playoffs.  No matter what he will negotiate some kind of option to leave after 3 years because he understands that he can’t stay in one location for 7 seasons.  At some point he will leave Cleveland to go to New York.  I truly believe that.  Whether its 2010-2011, or 3 years later, he will somehow find his way to New York because after all his eye is on the prize.  His ability to elevate New York to championship status will be something he will take as a challenge.

So did I answer the question?  No.  But if it were posed to Lebron, could he make a decision right now?  No.   He realizes his reputation, his legacy and the NBA are at stake.  No pressure Lebron.  No pressure at all.