Another fake mailbag ball bags. As always these are fake questions from real people. Leggo!
- With Kluber and DJ Lemehiu signed are the Yanks done?- Brian C from the Bronx
Brian that’s a great question and the answer is no. There are two factors here- roster construction and roster subtraction. Let’s start with the latter.
As Lindsey Adler of the Athletic pointed out the Yankees will have to subtract two players before adding Kluber and DJ Lemehiu. Which means a move or two are coming. We’ll get to that in a moment.
Let’s all agree DJ wasn’t going anywhere despite the long wait. The surprising, and frankly brilliant, part was that the deal was for 6 years which allowed the Yankees to bring the AAV down. As was pointed out multiple times, the average value of the deal is what’s counted for payroll purposes when staring down the luxury tax. So getting DJ for $15M a year is a bargain….for the next 4 years where he can play almost every infield position. I’m not going to argue about the Yankees signing him through his 39th birthday since DJ’s main skill is his ability to hit and hit for average which every Yankee fan will tell you was what was missing for the last few years.
It was also not surprising the Yankees signed Corey Kluber who was rehabbing in the Cressey Sports Performance Training Center. That center is run by Eric Cressey who the Yankees hired a year ago to oversee their training and strength/conditioning departments. Cressey still works at his center and trains other players like Noah Syndegaard (interesting for Mets fans I’m sure) and Max Scherzer among others which I’m not sure how that isn’t a conflict of interest but hey what do I know.*. So it wasn’t surprising that Kluber would want to sign a one year deal with the Yankees. But Yankees slotting Kluber in ink as the #2 starter behind Cole is hopeful rather than realistic.
*= yes that is my Mets self esteem issues still around from the Pre-Wilpon days. I’m still working through them.
Kluber threw one inning in his last comeback attempt with the Rangers last year, but the Yankees felt comfortable outbidding others for his services. They signed all of their arbitration eligible players and now GM Brian Cashman knows he has ~$4M to spend on starting pitching depth, and another OF.
With some subtractions required to fit the two acquisitions on to the 40-man roster, some have already begun fitting current-Reds starter Luis Castillo into pinstripes. There are a number of enticing young players on the Yankees roster that could work but here’s another way- the Yankees could flex their big city muscle like their counterparts in Flushing have begun to do so and take on some of the heftier contracts in return for a lighter prospect load. So instead of Clint Frazier, Clarke Schmidt AND another top Yankee prospect, the Yankees could send only Frazier and Schmidt and perhaps trade a lesser prospect for Castillo and either Mike Moustakas or someone I think would be better- Nick Castellanos.
This is only if the Yankees are prepared to go past the luxury tax this season. Castellanos can play 3B and LF and he’s going to be 29 this year and he’s tied through his age 34 season. He’s rough defensively at both positions but again can be a useful offensive bat if it means the Yankees hold on to their better prospects and allows them to acquire Luis Castillo who played the role of Ace #2 behind NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. Castillo is in the first year of arbitration entering the 2021 season, so he’s cost controlled for the next 3 years and would provide the Yankees or any team attempting to trade for him the kind of ace level production anyone would love to have. This option also means they go past the luxury tax which many have predicted they want to stay under for this year.
What we don’t know is whether Cashman has the stomach to make this kind of trade. The Reds are said to be asking for a ransom in return for Castillo and even if you added a bloated contract this move will likely cost them Frazier and Schmidt at minimum. Cashman has hesitated in dealing prospects the last few years but may view this as one of those special circumstances where the cost is warranted. There are other trades to be made but Castillo has reportedly been shopped and it would be criminal if Cash didn’t make an attempt to shore up a rotation that other than Gerrit Cole, has 800 career innings pitched behind him (note this means Clarke Schmidt and his 6 career innings, Luis Severino who is coming back from Tommy John, Deivi Garcia and his 30 IP and Jordan Montgomery). I’m not including Domingo German who as of now still has a job but it will be interesting to see how the Yankees tightrope his suspension and a return if at all.
Adding Castillo would instantly put the Yankees rotation on par with the top 5 rotations in all of baseball. Montgomery isn’t flashy but he’s solid as a 5th starter. I like Deivi Garcia alot. I think he has the stuff to be really good in two to three years. But until then he would be a good four in this rotation. Kluber would slot in as a three which is a necessity since Severino wouldn’t be expected to be back until June at the earliest and the Yankees would want to bring him in slowly. The Yankees would be giving up Clarke Schmidt in this deal for Castillo.
The Yankees have Michael King, Albert Abreu, and Luis Medina as options as well. Now, what that means for them this season is something else altogether.
To me the line up is stacked but the Yankees have been linked to Michael Brantley as well. If they added Brantley at LF, while trading for Castillo how can anyone pick against this team come October? Or even Marcell Ozuna for that matter. There are a number of reasons to believe Trevor Bauer won’t be wearing a Yankee hat outside of his free agent Youtube videos. There’s that thing with Gerrit Cole which may or may not have been squashed and Trevor’s penchant for stirring up the interwebs with his outspoken antics which for the straight laced, clean shaven Yankees may be too much. Plus he’s just too expensive.
Do they go after Joc Pederson who can play every OF spot defensively? Want a cheaper SP option? What about Taijuan Walker or Jake Odorizzi who are at the top of most peoples lists for back end depth options. You can argue both are probably a tinker or two away from becoming good pitchers and incredible value. The Yankees don’t have exciting options outside of the Castillo trade and given their 40 man situation, where this roster is currently, a Castillo trade makes a ton of sense for the Yankees to pursue. Get it done Cash.
Why would the Mets sign everyone but hold the line for JD Davis and what does that mean for what the Mets do next – JD from Flushing
Most people don’t understand why the Mets want to go through arbitration hearings when all that separates both sides is $400K but a deeper look could tell you where the Mets are looking at upgrading. Alot of people think the Mets next buy is Brad Hand to help the Mets bullpen. The Mets keep talking about using money to upgrade since the Mets don’t have the kind of prospect depth to swing the kind of trade they need. So CF will likely need to be a FA acquisition but Alderson has said multiple times that in lieu of a DH in the national league he doesn’t want to see Dom Smith or JD Davis play LF.
The reality is getting a true CF, whether its Springer or Jackie Bradley Jr or Albert Almora Jr helps the OF situation by moving Nimmo to left and you either learn to live with Davis at 3b or you work him in a platoon with Luis Guillorme. His value is tied to how that situation plays out. If Davis is a platoon guy then paying more than they want to for Davis makes little sense even for a team that is actively spending like the Mets.
The fans are all over about what the next priority should be as long as they close Brad Hand. They’ve been linked to Kris Bryant although you can’t envision them trading for and giving him an extension unless the cost to acquire him came down. The Mets have around $21M now that all the arbitration numbers are in. Some have argued that going the Lemiehu route on Springer (signing him for a longer contract to bring the AAV down) makes sense but the Mets will likely be negotiating with both Lindor and Conforto on long term extensions at the same time.
In my previous mailbag I predicted the value on Lindor and Conforto extensions. The Mets are locked in at $68M in commitments. Fitting a Springer at a lower AAV could be done but the question is whether the Mets want to do that over the other options. Much of that won’t be answered until we know whether Lindor and Conforto can be signed long term. That’s why I think the Springer offer is a take it or leave it offer until the Mets know where the other two are in terms of contracts. So my prediction is Springer could wait this out to keep the Mets in it to try adn get the Mets the most money possible.
My prediction: Davis opens the season as their 3B but the Mets could look to trade for Bryant at the midpoint of next season when the ask would be lower. This is a make or break season for Davis and his future on this franchise given the line the Mets decided to draw in the sand in arbitration. Davis would be the fourth Met in the last 28 years to go to arbitration.
Is anyone going to take the BlueJays money? Mark S from Toronto
You have to believe someone will. The Blue Jays have an enviable $116M in in luxury tax space this year and don’t have more than $33M in commitments next year with Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio still in pre-arb years and Vlad Jr entering his first arb year next year. Theoretically the Blue Jays could meet Bauer’s price and Realmuto’s price and Springer’s price IF they chose to do so but the bet here is that only one will take their money.
The recent news that Springer would like to play close to his Connecticut home is half negotiating tactic aimed at keeping the Mets involved, and half truth. We will know soon if Springer is just trying to extract additional monies from the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays offered a higher AAV for Lemeihu with their reported 4 year $78M offer but they weren’t willing to extend beyond that number to rob Lemiehu from the Yankees, if that was even something DJ was considering.
At some point the Blue Jays will have to make an aggressive offer for somebody. So it makes sense for Springer to stay in for as long as possible. Im wondering if the Blue Jays who so far haven’t been linked too close to Bauer or Realmuto shift energy into signing both.
Jayson Stark of the Athletic reported the Phillies made a 5 year offer for $100M recently. Would the Blue Jays be motivated to go big for Realmuto? They have Danny Jansen at the position now, and don’t have a prospect within 3 years of making the big league club so there’s an opportunity to massively upgrade the position and then spend big on shoring up the rotation and bullpen.
To me Bauer is a fit since Ross Atkins their current GM and and President of Baseball Operations Mark Shapiro both were in Cleveland when they traded for Bauer. They know what they are getting but do they want to sink $30M+ on a pitcher who just turned 30? Tough to know.
If I had to predict one would sign I’m guessing its Springer. The Mets priorities will be to re-sign Lindor and Conforto and at the minimum engage Syndegaard on a contract extension as well. Until they know what they are working with for the next few years its hard to figure on Springer. You get the sense that the Blue Jays will want to have one big contract expense to point to when discussing their offseason so its not a total failure even if it means overpaying for one of the guys.
Are we still going to start baseball on time? Rob M from NYC
No Rob. No we won’t. There isn’t any evidence that we are at the stage of vaccine deployment where enough of the population will get it so that we can get back to some amount of fans at all ballparks this year to begin the year.
My prediction is that we start Spring training in mid March with May being a scheduled start so we can have a 140 game schedule. I also predict many of the rules that existed last year will be in effect next year including expanded playoffs, 7 innings for double headers, runners at 2nd for extra inning games and most importantly the DH in the NL.
Why is Thibs continually going to Elfrid Payton over Immanuel Quickley? Immanuel Q from Midtown
Finally a basketball question!
I couldn’t tell you other than Thibs wants to ease Quickley into the expanded role that he should be playing. He’s a rookie and looks like the future at backcourt for the Knicks.
There isn’t a basketball reason for keeping Payton in at PG and playing him meaningful minutes. There’s an energy, skill and IQ (pardon the pun) uptick as soon as Quickley comes into the ballgame. Thibs isn’t dumb and has to manage this team through its first rough stretch. They’ve lost their last 5 games and are now playing the Celtics which will most likely be their sixth loss removing most of the optimism from their 5-3 start.
I said most because its clear that some good things have happened. Quickley is proving to be a steal. Obi hasn’t played and will be a boon with his ability and athleticism. Randle is playing at a 3rd team All NBA level which could result in what will surely be a healthy should we or shouldn’t we trade Randle for assets discussion among Knicks fans.
Most importnatly Kevin Knox, the guy who was on the outs in most Knicks fans eyes has begun to see life. He’s hitting 44% from deep, attempting the same amount while seeing his highest PER in his young career. Speaking of developments, it turns out putting the ball as much as possible in RJ Barret’s hands is a good decision.
Barrett is making the type of statistical leap in year two that most players are making although the wins aren’t adding up. Barrett’s 3P shooting aside (he’s at 20.7% for the year), his PER is up and so is his confidence. He’s the guy on this team and entrusting him in those situations can only help as the year goes on and for his development. If we are trashing the Knicks for faulty draft pick decisions we have to atleast see them in extended periods to make a true judgement and incremental improvements in most areas show that Barrett could be on the cusp. The threes will start to fall and as a ballhandler once the defense doesn’t sag off him from beyond the arc, his opportunities to drive and set up teammates or himself will increase and he’s a natural ball handler for a guy his size.
Quickley’s emergence can help both players. Knox doesn’t have to justify his draft slot and can be the hustle guy who drains the occasional three. Barrett has options with the ball in his hands, since Quick is a natural catch and shoot guy and as a guy who can set up Barrett from deep. But its incumbent that both players can take advantage of the opportunities. When the Knicks had their four game win streak all three were playing well along with Randle. They will need that again if the Knicks plan on being the fun team again.
Is James Harden the final piece to the puzzle or the beginning of the end of this current Brooklyn Nets run? Sean M from Brooklyn
My answer to the Harden trade is you trade for the talent, and worry about the fit later. Harden is a top 5 player in the NBA. Those players don’t come along often and he and KD get along. The Brooklyn fit with Kyrie is everyone’s big question mark but the pick and roll with Bruce Brown that Harden ran is terrifying if they can run that with Kyrie and KD on both ends and Joe Harris in another corner. This team will have to outscore every other team but the good news is that outside of Anthony Davis and Lebron James they have two of the most unstoppable offensive weapons in the game in Harden and KD and Kyrie who when mentally in, offers a luxury that no other team outside of the 2017 Warriors could match.
Of course there’s concern that this could blow up in their face but kudos to Sean Marks for making this trade. This is why you stockpile assets. Think about where this franchise came up from to now. This is NOT the Paul Pierce/KG trade where you are trading for washed up players well past their prime. KD is playing like like he never left. Harden posted a triple double in his first game with the Nets and we haven’t even seen Kyrie yet play with them.
Defense is a concern of course but not many teams can offer the offensive firepower the Nets do. Now its on Steve Nash to earn his keep as a coach. Much of Steve Kerr’s value in 2015 was unlocking the style of play the Warriors played that took them from a playoff team to a world champion and then in 2016 to the greatest regular season team ever. But he also excelled in the intangible part of coaching which was coaxing the most out of the team. Having guys like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson who are not the reported headcases that Kyrie and Harden are help but many pointed to Nash’s excellent reputation as a communicator as the reason why they moved on from Kenny Atkinson who oversaw the development of the Nets pre-KD and Kyrie acquisitions.
Now we will know if Nash has hte chops to be a head coach. Can we manage these personalities? Marks is doubling down on his Nash bet by giving him the kind of combustible team that could either win spectacularly or flame out spectacularly but they will for sure take up plenty of national coverage real estate. The talent is too great to ignore so I think its a great idea to trade for one of the top 3 best offensive players of his generation, but also a risk that much of what makes him great could erode the trust the franchise/team have.
All three superstars have the option to jump ship after next year. All three are not going to just shut up and play for the sake of it. Lesson here Knicks- this is why you spend time developing young players and the team. This is why you don’t trade away valuable commodities like first round picks for guys who don’t fit or semi-stars. Sean Marks turned no first round picks and a crappy cap situation into Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden.
You can see why the Rockets chose the Nets offer. Forget the rumor that Tillman Fertita ordered the Rockets front office not to discuss a trade with Daryl Morey and the Sixers who would have reportedly discussed Ben Simmons. If this doesn’t work out the Rockets will have extremely valuable assets moving forward into 2027. Assets, if used right and it flames out, they could use to build the next great team in Houston.
Of course stranger things have happened. I mean judging by pictures Harden lost nearly 40 pounds in the last week. This Nets team could win the next 3 titles and put KD up their with Lebron and MJ in the GOAT discussion. Their success could force teams like the Celtics to make the usually frenetic Danny Ainge to consider taking drastic steps to open a title window by swinging for a big move. Will this Nets team success challenge the Greek Freak’s loyalty?
Remember, the Warriors title teams made Daryl Morey trade for CP3 and then Russell Westbrook which eventually forced its own destruction. It made Lebron face his own mortality and plan the team up with Davis in LA. The Celtics probably figured they could wait the Warriors run out with their young studs Tatum and Brown. How patient can they afford to be if this new big 3 plays well?
There’s a lot riding on this trio. EIther it flames out or teams begin to reconsider whether their roster is good enough to compete in the short term. It could make for interesting subplots leaguewide. There could be more trades. Bradley Beal will be traded. There are only a few teams that can take him on knowing they have a legit chance of beating the Nets if everything falls into place.
You do this trade everytime and figure it out later.
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