Moving forward for the Mets

If you haven’t read my last piece about the the Lindor/Cookie trade read it here.

I had some more thoughts about it so I thought I’d just answer those questions with a fake mailbag so let’s go

Steve from Great Neck writes:
What are our options for signing him and what do you think it will take to get it done?

Steve, thanks for the question. There are a few things to consider and I’ll do my best to lay out all of the important factors here:

A. Do the Mets HAVE to sign him before the season? No. But as Sandy alluded to in the press conference they made the trade with the understanding that he’s on a one year deal (negating the value of prospect return) but with optimism that when team brass reach out to his agents they can work something out long term.

And they should be confident. They have the richest owner in baseball and a man who made a ton of money in 2020 while all of us were making Tik Toks. They can be as aggressive as they want and the assumption is that they will work something out prior to Spring Training because its in the best interest of the team to know where they stand with him contractually and be certain of the price tag moving forward because they have a few other extensions with homegrown players like Noah Syndegaard and Michael Conforto to work out as well.

B. Is it in the best interest of both parties to sign him before the season? Yes. Lindor and his agents understand the current financial economy of baseball. Covid has for sure taken some bite out of the financial pie and it will be interesting to see how they use that in the CBA talks coming up after the conclusion of the 2021 season. Lindor knows the Mets and Steve Cohen want to make a splash and he can use that excitement to negotiate in good faith.

Since Lindor has come into the league he has been one of the most charismatic and best two players in the game. The notion that he would have to prove he can play in NY is silly. Besides, the Mets aren’t paying for past production for a 27 year old, they are paying for the player he will be, a superstar two way shortstop who can hit in 3 hole and produce like few can entering his prime. This is his time to get the $30M+ extension for sure.

For the Mets its easy to see why its in their best interest. There’s cost certainty moving forward so they can move on to extensions for Thor and Conforto but there’s also the need to go all the way with Cohen’s first splash. Not completing an extension would make this deal feel incomplete and would remove some of the excitement and put Mets fans right back into the air of despair they constantly seem to be in.

But now there are rumors that the Padres are moving towards extending Tatis Jr. If that’s true it would set the market for Lindor and the other shortstops in the 2021 class. The Mets have done a good job until now of keeping their cards close to their vest, so one has to wonder if the Mets who denied having a period to negotiate a long term contract in trade talks, will try to engage Lindor’s agent sooner than a few weeks.

As for what will get it done? My prediction is that it will be an 8 year $256M deal with an opt out after year 4 so he can try and cash out again. That gives him a better annual per year salary than Machado and would allow him to re-enter the free agent market when presumably the sport of baseball and the economy will have recovered from CoVid.

George from Connecticut writes: What are the chances that the Mets go after Springer? His two way defense/offense will push this team over the hump as favorites in the NL East at the minimum right?

George, thanks for the question and there’s no doubt Springer is a proven commodity not only in the regular season but most importantly in the postseason which the Mets and its fanbase have to be dreaming about with the recent moves they’ve made. But the financial part of this is where it gets dicey.

The Mets and especially Cohen, have made it clear they are hesitant to pay big money for guys who are 30+ because as history tells us those contracts end up biting the team in the butt. So its hard to see the Mets paying Springer’s reported asking price of $150M.

But one of Jared Porter’s key talking points from Thursday’s press conference to announce the deal for Lindor was that they will be creative and wait out the market. It has to be tough for Springer’s agents to hear because it likely meant that any offer the Mets may have made the Mets won’t likely go above that number so Springer has to be wary. He’s 31, so taking a one year deal is risky as owners are likely to cry poor again next year since its reasonable to assume that a portion of this season will be played without any fans in most states.

So Porter and the Mets will wait Springer out and can afford to do so with this trade. The Mets don’t desperately need to add more offense to a team that was 13th last year in runs per game and that was with the team being dead last in all of baseball with runners left in scoring position. To that lineup you just added one of the best run producers in baseball. The Mets have regained leverage to allow Springer to walk and there may be some good to spread the wealth to add another starter to the mix to round out the rotation or add elsewhere.

If I had to guess I’m guessing despite it all Springer will be a Toronto Blue Jay and that it will be announced next week.

Kris from Chicago writes: Is 3B a real priority for the Mets that it makes a Kris Bryant trade something they should actually pursue?

Kris! Great question and curious you spell your name that way too! Run scoring and run prevention is high on the list of priorities for the Mets. Their 3b options are Jeff McNeil, JD Davis and Luis Guillorme. Let’s remove Jeff McNiel who will likely play 2b full time with Guillorme coming in to spell him at times. So right now its either JD Davis or Luis Guillorme. Davis is a bat first guy and Sandy and Jared made it a point to talk up the fact that they need to work on Davis to make him a better defender and the we have a guy by the name of Luis Guillorme” wasn’t a full on stamp of approval for Luis either so its fair to say that 3b is an area of concern defensively for the Mets.

So it makes sense that the Mets are in the market for a 3B. There was talk about the Mets engaging Seattle about Kyle Seager and defensively that makes sense as he was 3rd in UZR ( 6.9) in all of baseball in 2019 before taking a slip to 11th with a -0.4 rating in 2020. But Jerry DiPoto hung up when he realized he wasn’t talking to Brodie.

The Mets were reportedly talking to the Cubs re: Bryant but per Andy Martino of SNY those talks ended weeks ago and per the timeline the Mets moved on to Lindor. Bryant is also entering his walk year and due to make $19M. Per Mike Puma the Cubs were interested in Francisco Alvarez but if the Mets were unwilling to include him in a deal for Lindor, it seems highly unlikely they would offer him up for an inferior player. My prediction is that the Nats make a run at him but watch for the Braves who if the DH doesn’t come to the NL could view Bryant as their offensive spark plug they pay on a one year deal. They have the deep prospect capital to get it done.

There’s pie in the sky re: Arenado but that would be overly indulgent and make no sense since its not a secret that should the Dodgers not trade for Arenado, he will exercise his opt out and try to work out a deal with them next year which is why the Dodgers are playing hardball with their current 3B Justin Turner who wants a 4 year deal.

So where do the Mets turn to for 3B defense? Its clear the Mets want Davis’ bat in the line up but they are concerned what happens to them defensively when he does play there as they made it clear they don’t want him or Dom to see LF extensively next year. My guess is that they keep Davis and Guillorme and resist temptation to trade more prospects for short term help.

Jared from Flushing writes do the Mets go bullpen or get more starter depth?

Excellent question Jared. Honestly? I think they go both. I can see them going after a Collin McHugh over a Corey Kluber or James Paxton since it would cost less because I think they will go after a Hand/Hendriks to overhaul the bullpen. In the end I think the Mets get Hand as they were open about their interest in him since Sandy’s initial press conference. He’s a lefty and has had incredible numbers and would be an incredible weapon. I can also see them reuniting with Justin Wilson if Hand doesn’t pan out as Wilson had some great numbers with the Mets.

Porter and Sandy talked about depth and the need for more pitching. So it makes sense that they would be proactive on that market but again the benefit of the Lindor/Carrasco trade is that they don’t have to be desperate about it. They can sit back and let the market flesh itself out. Even better news for Mets fans is that they are the market. Every agent will try to engage the Mets or remain in their orbit hoping the Mets outbid other teams for their clients services. With the Mets looking like a contender on paper, don’t underestimate guys like Kluber or Paxton signing on for less to ride the wave but both would sign on for one year coming off injury.

Noah and Michael from Midtown, NY ask what’s the latest on a Conforto and Syndegaard extension?

Right now mum is the word but so was word last week this time before the new Mets unleashed the Lindor trade on the world. Things can escalate quickly but the date to look at for both is February 1. That’s the arbitration hearing deadline and while the Mets did agree with Thor on a $9.7M salary for 2021 (which on a pro-rated salary was the same as his 2020 salary) the Mets may want to see how Thor comes back in 2021 before signing him to an extension.

But you have to believe Conforto is the likelier candidate to see a contract worked out before Spring Training.

Cohen and Sandy talked about the need to lock up homegrown talent and it must have been music to Scott Boras’ ears. Boras is notorious for taking his clients to free agency, dropping the personalized to player binder on team’s tables and negotiating off that to get the very best deal for his clients. But Conforto’s comments from this MLB.com article suggest that he would be open to extension talks before entering free agency especially if he felt like the Mets offer something reasonable:

“Everyone always says that Scott is a big free-agency guy and he’s a big fan of that, but Scott … is obviously going to give me the best advice that he feels he has for me as a player and for my career,” Conforto said in February. “Ultimately, it’s my decision. I think it’s somewhat of a misconception about Scott and his clients. He wants what’s best for us. He’s going to give us his best advice. But at the end of the day, he’ll tell you, ‘It’s my client’s decision.’”

Conforto plays corner OF and last year made some refinements to his approach to really open up his game. He’s good for 25+ HR’s and 80 RBI’s with a .260 average every year and if you believe his production from last year was no fluke then he’s likely entering hte prime of his career having made the adjustments that will see his numbers jump. Especially hitting in this lineup with Lindor in it you would assume Conforto gets more opportunities to produce runs which would only make Boras’ binder thicker and ask larger.

My prediction? The Mets get Conforto to sign for 5 years with an option for a 6th year based on qualifiers for a $21M year average.

Joel from Westchester writes what happens to the Mets long term if they just sign everybody?

Joel, you must be referring to this article Joel Sherman of the Post wrote re: contracts not being done in a vacuum for the Mets. Its true. The Lindor and Conforto extensions will draw a line in teh sand on future salary commitments especially if the Mets don’t have enough reinforcements in the pipeline to refill the roster at minimal expense.

Cohen spoke about building a team like the Dodgers. They are undoubtedly the best team in baseball and have a top 10 farm system. The Yankees are like that too. That’s the end goal for Cohen.

But Joel raises some important concerns regarding future roster construction issues that can come with handing out multi-year extensions for all of these players. But that’s where Porter and Zack Scott come into play. They were brought in for their abilities to identify players that could play at minimal expense to the payroll. Its easy to identify Lindor as someone to acquire.

This is why the call to build depth isn’t just GM talk from Jared Porter. While the $210M competitive tax isn’t a line the Mets can’t cross, it would have to be justified especially in year one of the Cohen experience.

I did a less than scientific payroll experiment for 2022. Per Spotrac, the Mets have $68M committed for 2022. Let’s say we sign Lindor and Conforto to the extensions I suggested above, that means $32M for Lindor and $21M for Conforto that means $53M. Let’s assume some generous raises (note I’m not an expert so this is a likely bad estimate) for arbitration and pre arbitration candidates and that means another $45M in salary commitments.

So that means our payroll is now at $166M. If the competitive tax remains at $210M that means we have $44M to get to the competitive tax and that’s assuming Mets don’t cross the tax this year. So they may have even more to spend. Not a bad spot to be in but will require some forward thinking trades to get depth and some below market deals. This is where Zack Scott and Jared Porter will be judged. While there’s plenty of work to be done, especially on the SP depth, there’s reason to believe that if the top 6 prospects take steps forward the Mets can be really dangerous.

Thanks for all the fake mail and let’s keep it coming. The Mets have a pretty awesome future and let’s take this in before the team takes the field for 2021 that this season will be exciting!