Tag Archives: Mets

April 7, 2022 · 10:29 pm

MLB Power Rankings- Opening Week Edition

With the Major league season (Finally!) a week away I thought I should put together a tier-based power rankings.

It may not make sense and there’s a good chance I’ll look foolish but hey this is about putting this upcoming season in perspective. If the mood strikes I may do this repeatedly throughout the season (who knows?). Lets get into it.

WE ARENT TRYING

30. Pittsburgh Pirates- Look, this team isn’t trying and we offer you exhibit A and exhibit B. Bob Nutting- the owner of the Pirates- is a billionaire and he’s trying to have a payroll barely above $30M. I know fans are going to complain that the new CBA doesn’t include salary floor language but the reality is that would’ve been the entree for owners to put a salary cap in baseball. I’m not saying that it wouldn’t have been mutually beneficial but as a fan of a (finally!) big market team after years of not acting like one- it would’ve sucked. This is an example of a team that will only go as far as the owner is willing to spend a buck.

29. Arizona Diamondbacks- This is another team that’s trying to convince their fanbase that better times are ahead which when you look at their farm system they are correct. They have a consensus top 10 farm in baseball depending on who’s ranking. They just re-signed their best position player to coincide with the arrival of a number of their better prospects. There’s a scenario that this team is a fun team to watch for prospect nerds by July with a few pieces (Zac Gallen) to trade in July that could make this system even deeper.

28. Oakland Athletics- They aren’t 30 because they haven’t traded everyone away and judging by the haul they got for Olson and Bassit (a player in his walk year) they won’t rush to trade two of the better pitchers (Montas/Manea) unless they get EXACTLY what they want. It sucks that owners do this to fanbases but the Oakland fanbase has been through this rodeo so many times they don’t need anyone to console them. This is their purgatory until they figure out where they could play and they just got some very bad news two weeks ago. Oakland could lose two iconic franchises within a 5 year span and its tough to argue. Most municipalities don’t see the economic reasons for building a sports stadium because they don’t see the return no matter what executives in suits try to tell them. As baseball fans it will be weird to see the Nashville A’s or the Vegas A’s but fans should prepare themselves for that reality. What isn’t clear is whether this will prompt the owner to start spending.

27. Baltimore Orioles- It may be harsh to put them in this tier but they aren’t interested in this year. They are another team that has a bunch of prospects that likely won’t make an impact for another year. This is another year where they will be the deciding factor in who wins the division only this time it won’t just be the AL East. With the new balanced schedules, more teams will get to play the teams in this tier and the teams that beat up on these teams with regularity will decide a bunch of divisional races. The Orioles have the #1 prospect in baseball and its likely he will come up in June and justify his standing. But Baltimore has had a highly touted catching prospect come up and not deliver on the goods but folks can’t stop raving about the all around make up of Adley Rutschmann. We shall see.

26. Washington Nationals- This is the team who’s offseason plan made some kind of sense. They recognize they aren’t trying this year. So they signed a bunch of guys to one year deals who they plan on trading midseason to build up depth in their minors. I love that idea and I wish other teams would be realistic enough to do it. But this season is especially important for two reasons- 1. Will the nationals make a legitimate offer to Soto’s camp on a long term deal? and 2. What is left on the arm of Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals former number one overall pick literally sacrificed his right arm for a world series title and a huge extension and he’s set to come back this year. What can we realistically expect? They are a team that the Mets are facing in the final weekend of the year and I fear could play spoiler.

25. Cincinnati Reds- We can talk about Bob Nutting all day but the Reds are another team that made confounding decisions. Traded away a few pieces and likely to trade more after signing guys to some horrendous contracts just two years ago. What doesn’t appear clear is what the timeline for the next great Reds team is. Forget Luis Castillo who’s dealing with some shoulder issue, would the Reds consider trading Joey Votto this year? He’s owed $45M over the next two years total and he just had his best power year in 4 years last year. He changed his approach but was still an OBP machine like he’s always been. I wonder if they would trade him this July to get the best possible return. It would suck for the franchise’s fans who had to watch Winkler put on another uniform but this could possibly be the best solution for the long term health of the franchise.

They Could Be Interesting This Year IF Things Break Right For Them.

24. Texas Rangers- They made over half a billion dollar investment in their middle infield but they have Jon Gray as their defacto ace and a bunch of 5th starters. They aren’t going to be pretty records wise, but this is another team that could point to their team starting to be assembled with ace Jack Leiter needing another year of marination to begin getting some big league time. They have plenty of money to spend in the coming years and will be eyeing the big aces that come free. They may even make a trade or two at the deadline that may not make sense for pitching even if they aren’t seen as a contender. This team could be interesting sooner than we all think.

23. Colorado Rockies- Probably the most shocking signing of the offseason was Kris Bryant getting the bag thrown at him by the Rockies who famously paid the Cardinals $50M to take a perennial gold glover off their hands. This franchise’s front office upheaval is going to make a crazy Athletic article in a few months. Remember how the Dodgers couldn’t win the NL West despite winning 106 games? They can look at their 13-6 record vs the Rockies as opposed to the 107 win Giants having a 15-4 record in 2021. Yes, the Dodgers ultimately made the NLCS which would make it 5 out of the last 6 seasons but these are the teams in this division that are now open season for a bunch of other division races. The Rockies have a legitemate ace in German Marquez and have a stealthily deep farm system and could surprise folks on offense. This is another team that’s going to win a few games they have no business winning early and late and lose a ton in between.

22. Miami Marlins- Derek Jeter quit this offseason and to make Derek Jeter quit something is no small feat. While the reason may be a matter of discussion this is a team that has a TON of pitching. No seriously a TON. During the lockout shortened season they surprised a bunch of folks by making the playoffs but the bones of this team will be their pitching. They locked up their ace Sandy Alcantara to a long term extension and should aim to do so with Pablo Lopez but i’m wondering what their long term plan is to address the other areas of their teams because their top 3 is as good a top 3 as there is in baseball and that’s without counting Sixto Sanchez, or Max Meyer or Edward Cabrera all who flash plus velocity/movement. Do they trade from this depth to get hitting? This is a team that could swing a trade and still have a top 3 rotation for the next half decade. If only they could hit or develop positional talent like they do pitching.

21. Los Angeles Angels- I was wrestling between this and the former tier but i landed here because how do you put them as a team that doesn’t care when you have Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani on your team? They are starting to assemble a roster around them but nothing is more important than what they get from their starting rotation. Joe Maddon said there are no inning limits for Noah Syndegaard but he’s pitching sub 5 innings in the last two years. He’s signed for a year but let’s be real its with the intent of trading him midseason and advertising him as an elite reliever to net the best return. Its not inconcievable that the Angels FO has sold Ohtani and Trout on this idea to make them stomach yet another year where this won’t be a team that sniffs contention despite having two perennial MVP’s on the team. I can’t even conceive how poorly constructed a team has to be to not be able to build a winner around them but here we are. Bigger development would be Jo Adell being the guy the Angels thought and every prospect hugger thought when he came up.

20. Chicago Cubs- It was legitimately funny to hear the Cubs POBO Jed Hoyer’s “ya’ll should’ve taken the deal when we offered it” spin to reporters when discussing the deals that the former Cubs Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez signed this offseason as opposed to the pre-free agency deals the teams offered. They are a ways away from that 2016 team that broke a 100+ year curse but they are making the moves to that next team. Let’s see how it looks in a year and how they manage to keep trading for high end prospects in deals.

19. Cleveland Guardians- You start team previews believing one thing and it gets to the beginning of the season and something can change everything up. Like locking up Jose Ramirez to a 5 year deal (essentially 7). To put it bluntly this was a 70 win team without Ramirez and a low 80’s team with him. What will change the trajectory of the franchise is whether their hitters will take a step forward or not. Its hard to not view this division as the White Sox, Twins and everyone else showing off their shiny new rookies but the Guardians are in a weird space where they have an abundance of pitching and could use some of that excess depth to trade for an impact bat but are not sure they can afford to make that move until their ownership situation figures itself out (will Dolans stay or will they go?)

COME WATCH THE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR PLAY

18. Detroit Tigers- The Tigers are one of four teams coming into the season that could lay claim to having the best rookie in baseball on their team. Adley Rutschmann on the Orioles. The Tigers will have two of their excellent rookies playing a full season- Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson who got a great welcome to the bigs moment from Miguel Cabrera of all people. The Tigers started investing into their team already- adding Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez at the top. Riley Greene had an unfortunate injury that has dampened the mood but the Tigers should start seeing signs of rebirth with their core coming on this year and next.

17. Kansas City Royals- Bobby Witt hits like Mike Trout. That’s my scouting take. My toxic hot take is that Mike Trout’s value has been inflated by hollow stats that have lead to absolutely nothing for the Angels franchise. Witt has to hope his team is better assembled than Trout’s. The Royals will feature a young- not great rotation with Royals alumni Zack Greinke at the top and a host of young prospects coming up this year (MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Asa Lacy). Let’s see how the young’ns will react to the show.

16. Seattle Mariners- Full disclosure, I think the Mariners make the playoffs. But Swithin, that means they should be higher than 16 in your opening poll. Let me make clear that the season opening polls don’t reflect how I think the season will go, but how the teams open up this year. I like the Mariners. I love that they promoted Julio Rodriguez like the Royals did with Witt, and the Tigers did with Torkelson. The league is overflowing with under 25 STARS that it will be exciting to watch so many young guys develop over the year but Rodriguez is the guy to watch. I think he will be the AL ROY and it won’t be close because as soon as he figures it out, I give the league until May to destroy his confidence, and then watch out. He’s a dude. Those of a certain age know what I mean when I say that. He’s just bigger than most guys and the sound off his bat is what really turns your head. The Astros run of dominance could end as early as next year if they keep letting the talent walk out.

15. Minnesota Twins- Adding Carlos Correa was a legit jaw dropping move. Good for the Twins for doing something that many didn’t expect from them but then again they signed Byron Buxton to a long term contract which many didn’t think was possible either. Either way the Twins will have a guy with a lifetime .413/.443/1.205 line at Target Field play for them for a full year. That’s the highest mark playing at any park minimum 15 games. The Twins and Correa built opt outs that will let both recover if things go south. They still don’t have great pitching despite jus trading for Chris Paddack. But the Twins should have a better offense and they have a great defense so that could mean wins that perhaps weren’t there last year. The Gary Sanchez/Gio Urshela for Josh Donaldson/Ben Rortvedt served both teams well. The Yankees were able to get out from under Gary while getting a better bat in Donaldson and a better defensive backup catcher. Let’s see how this season unfolds but the Twins could be a monster offense.

WE HAVE HOPES AND DREAMS

14. Philadelphia Phillies- Another team I have making the playoffs but inexplicably outside of the top 12. Yes, this is a team that will struggle to defend but you put an offense with Realmuto, Harper, Schwarber, and Hoskins, it will win some ugly games. This is a deep lineup and health permitting they will win alot more games than folks want to admit. The questions for the rotation are thusly: what’s with Zack Wheeler’s arm? They aren’t starting him opening day because he experienced some discomfort earlier this year. Will that lingering arm injury cost him some games this year? If so will Aaron Nola reclaim his former luster as a really good pitcher? Is Ranger Suarez that missing piece of the rotation? Eflin and Gibson are who they are but if Suarez can provide quality innings you have to like the Phillies chances. The hope is that Phillies fans aren’t looking for hope in the bullpen late in a close game.

13. St Louis Cardinals- I really thought the Cardinals would go after Trevor Story. If they did I would feel better about them but with Jack Flaherty’s injury, and their pitching depth down to tiny thread that holds Steven Matz’ self confidence you have to wonder if the Cardinals will truly be a good team. Last year they snuck into the playoffs playing an insane stretch of baseball late in teh season which ok sure- good luck replicating that. The Cardinals have this voodoo magic that the Yankees have. Yes bringing back Pujols was legitemately a cool moment albeit shortlived after he stupidly announced his divorce from his wife days after she had an operation to remove a brain tumor. For the record I agree that divorces don’t “just happen overnight” like he said in his statement but the idea that he would publicly announce something that is NOBODY’s F’ng BUSINESS but their family’s was bizarre. Invoking God’s plan (and no not the Drake song) was even dumber. I can’t imagine God would want you to abandon your wife and mother to your children while she’s still recovering from a major operation. But hey i’ve written too much about it. My point is nothing lasts and neither can the Cardinals devil magic. The decline will start this year.

12. Milwaukee Brewers- I love their pitching. I love their bullpen. Even if they traded Hader, they may still be left with the best closer in the national league- Devin Williams. He’s that good. His change up is basically witch craft and the movement can’t be explained and good luck even hitting it. Their lineup is basically one big question mark around Christian Yelich. The Brewers play great defense and have great pitching- that’s how they will win their division and overtake the Cardinals. They will make moves that seem small and insignificant that will play large roles. They are managed well and built well. More on the Mets future in a second.

11. Boston RedSox- The vibes have not been immaculate in Boston. Devers shot down a contract offer from the club as it was “lower than he is willing to consider.” So good news there. Honestly? The Sawx don’t have the pitching IMO to keep up in the AL East. Alex Cora will have to work his magic even better this year. He has done an amazing job as manager but this division will be an absolute blood bath. Even Cora’ charm won’t be enough.

10. San Diego Padres- I’ve openly complained about how they are able to trade all of their prospects not in the top 5 for really good returns and continue to underperform. Tatis reckless behavior has to be troubling especially coming off the 14 year commitment they made to him. But this is a pretty deep team and they just hired a really good manager that I hoped would come to the Mets before they settled on Buck- Bob Melvin. Melvin’s calming influence will be good and I hope he’s a guy who will let the boys be boys. I just don’t think they will win enough games to reach the playoffs this year especially knowing Tatis will miss half the season.

CONTENDERS

9. New York Mets- I’ll admit that I like this team. Sure. I’ll even admit that I’m higher on them than most. Im more optimistic than most. That can all come crumbling down very quickly. But this is as deep a lineup as the Mets have had ever. I really believe Dom Smith will have 450-500 AB’s. We have a manager who knows what he’s doing and this team will go on a run once deGrom returns that will make folks believe. I still think they are a pitcher short but we will see how aggressive Billy Eppler is at the trade deadline but this is a team that should win a ton of games with a steadier hand leading the team.

8. New York Yankees- The Yankees are a deeper team than they were. They have plenty of offense to win a bunch of games but their defense will be suspect imo and their starting pitching hinges alot on guys who don’t have that kind of track record. The Yankees hope they can sign Judge long term, and they have to secure their price now because who knows what happens. The Giants are a big market team ready to drop a bag on a kid from the Bay Area. The Yankees have to know that they risk alienating their fanbase even more if they let the face of their franchise just walk. If the Yankees don’t sign Judge in the next 24 hours, he’s as good as gone in my opinion. Or the Yankees will have their arm twisted into 1-2 more years than they would’ve liked at a few million more than they would’ve liked. Let’s see how badly Judge wants to stay a Yankee.

7. San Francisco Giants- Can they win 100+ games again? Farhan Zaidi is as smart a GM as they come. They make smart decisions and they are a team that thinks outside the box when it comes to every facet of their organization which has enabled them to beat projection systems almost every year. This team could win 88 games or win 104 games. The reality is they got deeper at pitching and their scientists, i mean coaches will get thier hands on Rodon and somehow helped Cobb add 3-4 MPH on a fastball that was already mid 90’s. Sure. Completely normal. I am not betting against them.

6. Chicago White Sox- They signed Johnny Cueto to a minor league contract so that should tell you where they are in terms of their pitching depth. But the White Sox have the kind of lineup that Tony LaRussa wishes he could manage. Wait, he’s A MANAGER? Either way the Sox will be a really fun entertaining team. They have a solid pitching staff- but that trade for Craig Kimbrell looks even dumber now that they traded him for AJ Pollock who should be a platoon player. I think the WhiteSox will be a one and done team in the postseason but because their division is atrocious they will win it.

5. Houston Astros- Every year they let another guy go and every year they win the West. The Jeff Luhnow tenure left a lot of bodies but it churned out a consistent winner that has leaned on analytics to win divisions and pennants. Every year we assume there’s a downturn and every year they win 95-100 games. At some point losing stars will hurt. This year it was Correa who signed for a deal that a few teams are probably smacking themselves for not offering. But the Astros really really believe in Jeremy Pena and so does my fantasy team. They still have a ton of hitting and a good enough amount of pitching to get thru an AL West that will have 1 teams actively plotting to lose games and shed players, and 3 other teams trying to convince the league they are ready to replace the Astros. I’ll believe it when I see it but it won’t be this year.

4. Tampa Bay Rays- I want to put them in the next group but the reality is there’s a host of outcomes that could rear its head. Will the team be a pennant contender? Sure. Will they win a ton of games because they may have the game’s best young shortstop? Yes. Will they defy convention over the course of a season because they have to in order to survive? Yes. But these are the good times for an organization who shippped off a 30 hr corner outfield bat because they had to make room for a rookie 30 hr corner outfield bat who can defend. They are a factory. A machine created by an algorithm that knows not emotion but cold calculus of wins and losses. Its a tough business but I would’ve loved ANY executive off this team to poach as a Mets fan and I will be a fan of theirs always.

THE FAVORITES:

3. Toronto Blue Jays- They will have definite advantages because they have a great young team with a conglomerate backing them as their ownership. One of those advantages could come as a result of a country ordinance that prevents any player from participating without having received the vaccine. The fact that this game had grown men 20 years ago injecting steroids into their hind parts and has now morphed to grown men scared of a life saving vaccine has me asking this very simple question- where have all the real men gone? The Jays have a stacked lineup and the fact that they were making a concerted effort to pry Jose Ramirez from the Guardians days before the regular season while having already traded for Matt Chapman one of the best defensive 3b in the league show you where this team is in terms of knowing when their moment is. The moment is now. This is a team ready for the here and now.

2. Atlanta Braves- There is no rule that states that I HAVE to put Atlanta at 1 because they won the world series last year. But last year was my worst nightmare because this is a really good team and they didn’t let the emotion of a title sweep them up into making a bad long term investment in Freddie Freeman. Seriously that was probably the scariest part of this organization. It got younger with a minimal drop off in talent and probably better vibes if an Acuna interview is to be believed. Olson is as good if not better defensively, probably going to emerge as a better power hitter if their 2021 season trend lines indicate anything. They have more prospects, and enough pitching to make them great and they won a title without Ronald Acuna. Just let that sink in.

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers– They are a behemoth. A galaxy destroying death star that if fully operational should have enough to trade for anybody in baseball while still trotting out a middle of the order that reads like an All Star team. If this team doesn’t win this year alot of injuries happened and the Giants and Padres were a lot better than we thought or maybe injuries overtook them and they lost in the world series. This is the ONLY TEAM in baseball that should take not winning a world series as a legitimate stain on their season. They are the best team in baseball and will likely stay up here unless something horrible happens.

ENJOY!

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March 20, 2022 · 1:23 pm

State of the Mets 3.20.22

I thought it would be an appropriate time to comment on the state of the NY Mets heading into the 2022 baseball season. Our biggest nightmare has been realized- the Braves are great. Not good. Great. Despite the pull of societal pressure to re-sign a fan favorite at age 33 to a 6 year deal, the Braves decided to use their resources to trade for a younger version, heading into his prime, Matt Olson, from the Athletics to open a new window. They have both their star position players Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies signed through 2027 with Acuna having a club option in 2028 that unless something goes horrifyingly wrong will be picked up.

They have young pitching in the majors that won’t be FA’s until 2025 and young pitching in the minors ready to step in if necessary. They just added one of the best closers from a league rival that shocked the industry and they are more than just kicking tires on Carlos Correa. Alex Anthopolous has built the monster he wanted to build while in Toronto. Worse? He has a conglomerate behind him.

The Phillies are going to spend and that’s the nicest thing I can say about them. They signed Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos likely only watching highlights of them hitting. They join Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola and a bullpen that Mets fans will find has an awfully FAMILIA-r look to it.

The Marlins are rebuilding or something. Since they pulled the wool over everyone’s eyes twice in the span of a near decade and won two World Series, they have been in the desert looking for an oasis. Presumably the last 19 years since is the price you pay when you make a deal with the devil for two world series. Derek Jeter walked away when he realized the Marlins were just there for the check and not to win.

The Nationals are deferring the next few seasons so they can scrounge up enough scratch to convince Juan Soto to take their 10 year $500M offer with about $400M of it deferred. They have some prospects coming and traded away two of their most respected stars for an upgrade to their minor league system. I would’ve said shot in the arm but you know its a sore subject to folks in DC.

Which brings us to the beloved Mets. With Steve Cohen running things, the Mets have made zero doubts about whether they are in financially committed to the cause of winning. They more than likely will sport the league’s highest payroll- Freddie Freeman contracts be damned! With that comes the scorn of the industry who just tried to cry poo in dealings with the players association. Even naming a top luxury tax tier did nothing to phase Steve Cohen from his mission.

So where exactly are the Mets? Good question.

Pre-owner driven lockout (I’m saying it with my chest)- the Mets signed Max Scherzer to the richest contract ever for a pitcher. They then went and got wish versions for elite OF play in Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. This is not to demean them but their contracts and price point suggest they are there to keep the seat warm for some youngsters on the way. They also hired an experienced manager in Buck Showalter and GM Billy Eppler. Both have experience winning in NY coming from the glory days of the Yankees.

Joel Sherman wrote a piece detailing how baseball is always better when it has a villain that they can actively root for. Nevermind that Joel doesn’t hide his pinstriped pom poms and has the Mets disappointed everybody article in his drafts at all times, however on this we agree.

What Steve Cohen has done for baseball and to the Mets is set them up for what most hope is their commeuppance. Mets fans won’t be surprised by anything that happens this season. In fact most already have complained that they haven’t done enough in light of the other teams in the division- notably the defending World Series champion Braves- doing stuff. But this season more than anything is the litmus test for Mets fans.

The owner has spent. We are on the clock for that window he wanted to win in. Pressure busts pipes but it can also create diamonds. In hopes of altering the makeup of this team the investment Cohen put into Showalter and Scherzer were also to recalibrate this team’s toughness and grit. Those two words we hear so much about but can’t quantify but we always point to the 90’s Yankees. Those teams didn’t have superstars- they just had guys who knew how to win and play the right way.

Every guy, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha included, were brought here with the specific intent to improve upon the clubhouse dynamic that led to clubhouse fights, thumbs down gimmics, and made up hitting coaches. There won’t be any of those shenanigans with Showalter in the clubhouse. But more than that, this core that Mets fans hold so dearly- they were put on notice. From now on, you either are part of the winning or youre the reason we’re losing. The decisions didn’t mince the intent.

This team is all-in on payroll with a chance to go up. This is not just about reaching the playoffs- its about winning in October. Trading for Chris Bassit on a one year deal is about right now. This team can and should think that they can compete with the Braves. They won a World Series on the hot bats of Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario after losing the best player on the team Ronald Acuna. That’s a talented team that decided they aren’t ready for the fun times to end.

The Mets hope is that alot of their players won’t suffer the same fate as last year. Dominic Smith, JD Davis and Jeff McNeil had years they wish they didn’t. It was learned earlier this week thanks to Pat Ragazzo of SI that Dom played the year with a torn labrum. He’s already hit two homers in live AB vs a working up to starting Max Scherzer and one in their first Spring Training game. So the results so far have been encouraging. JD Davis is penciled in at 3B and DH and shouldn’t touch a glove for all that is holy and my blood pressure.

Jeff McNeil has positional versatility at both 2b and 3b but its his relationship with Lindor that many will have their eyes on. No matter how much they did their lubby dubby PR Press tour, everybody could tell those smiles were faker than laughing at an awful joke because you were told by your parents to get along with that person. I expect McNeil to have a bounceback year because that guy can hit and Showalter has already done him a huge service by announcing that he will get the bulk of time at 2b. Sometimes its all it takes.

But nobody has more on his shoulders than the $341M man Francisco Lindor. A year ago the Mets traded for then signed him to a big extension- a sign to Mets fans that Steve Cohen meant business. His first year was filled with more downs than ups but there’s reason for hope that after returning from an oblique strain that Lindor has a greater handle on playing in NY than he did when he accepted the trade. Us Mets fans can simply look at Carlos Beltran as an example of what can happen when a superstar finally feels comfortable. His 2006 season may be the greatest season put together by a Mets position player in the club’s history. It just so happened that it was also his second season in NY.

We keep telling you out of towners- NY isn’t for everybody and we mean it.

Will Pete Alonso having endured a car crash that he walked away from be able to put that trauma behind him to hit 40+ homers? Brandon Nimmo is in his walk year and how will this front office value what he does? Will Jake DeGrom last a full season after suggesting he thinks he can continue throwing as hard as he did last year? What will we get from Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco? What even are we going to see from the bullpen this year? What are we even thinking we will get from Cano?

Can the Mets do it? In my opinion yes. But a 162 game season means some randomness can happen but the season will shake out the truth. That whether this grand experiment will work or not. Because if it doesn’t this team will look dramatically different. To me this is a 90+ win team. How many wins over 90 will be told by what happens. Buckle up.

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January 17, 2021 · 7:25 pm

Sunday Morning mailbag January 17, 2021

Another fake mailbag ball bags. As always these are fake questions from real people. Leggo!

  1. With Kluber and DJ Lemehiu signed are the Yanks done?- Brian C from the Bronx

Brian that’s a great question and the answer is no. There are two factors here- roster construction and roster subtraction. Let’s start with the latter.

As Lindsey Adler of the Athletic pointed out the Yankees will have to subtract two players before adding Kluber and DJ Lemehiu. Which means a move or two are coming. We’ll get to that in a moment.

Let’s all agree DJ wasn’t going anywhere despite the long wait. The surprising, and frankly brilliant, part was that the deal was for 6 years which allowed the Yankees to bring the AAV down. As was pointed out multiple times, the average value of the deal is what’s counted for payroll purposes when staring down the luxury tax. So getting DJ for $15M a year is a bargain….for the next 4 years where he can play almost every infield position. I’m not going to argue about the Yankees signing him through his 39th birthday since DJ’s main skill is his ability to hit and hit for average which every Yankee fan will tell you was what was missing for the last few years.

It was also not surprising the Yankees signed Corey Kluber who was rehabbing in the Cressey Sports Performance Training Center. That center is run by Eric Cressey who the Yankees hired a year ago to oversee their training and strength/conditioning departments. Cressey still works at his center and trains other players like Noah Syndegaard (interesting for Mets fans I’m sure) and Max Scherzer among others which I’m not sure how that isn’t a conflict of interest but hey what do I know.*. So it wasn’t surprising that Kluber would want to sign a one year deal with the Yankees. But Yankees slotting Kluber in ink as the #2 starter behind Cole is hopeful rather than realistic.

*= yes that is my Mets self esteem issues still around from the Pre-Wilpon days. I’m still working through them.

Kluber threw one inning in his last comeback attempt with the Rangers last year, but the Yankees felt comfortable outbidding others for his services. They signed all of their arbitration eligible players and now GM Brian Cashman knows he has ~$4M to spend on starting pitching depth, and another OF.

With some subtractions required to fit the two acquisitions on to the 40-man roster, some have already begun fitting current-Reds starter Luis Castillo into pinstripes. There are a number of enticing young players on the Yankees roster that could work but here’s another way- the Yankees could flex their big city muscle like their counterparts in Flushing have begun to do so and take on some of the heftier contracts in return for a lighter prospect load. So instead of Clint Frazier, Clarke Schmidt AND another top Yankee prospect, the Yankees could send only Frazier and Schmidt and perhaps trade a lesser prospect for Castillo and either Mike Moustakas or someone I think would be better- Nick Castellanos.

This is only if the Yankees are prepared to go past the luxury tax this season. Castellanos can play 3B and LF and he’s going to be 29 this year and he’s tied through his age 34 season. He’s rough defensively at both positions but again can be a useful offensive bat if it means the Yankees hold on to their better prospects and allows them to acquire Luis Castillo who played the role of Ace #2 behind NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. Castillo is in the first year of arbitration entering the 2021 season, so he’s cost controlled for the next 3 years and would provide the Yankees or any team attempting to trade for him the kind of ace level production anyone would love to have. This option also means they go past the luxury tax which many have predicted they want to stay under for this year.

What we don’t know is whether Cashman has the stomach to make this kind of trade. The Reds are said to be asking for a ransom in return for Castillo and even if you added a bloated contract this move will likely cost them Frazier and Schmidt at minimum. Cashman has hesitated in dealing prospects the last few years but may view this as one of those special circumstances where the cost is warranted. There are other trades to be made but Castillo has reportedly been shopped and it would be criminal if Cash didn’t make an attempt to shore up a rotation that other than Gerrit Cole, has 800 career innings pitched behind him (note this means Clarke Schmidt and his 6 career innings, Luis Severino who is coming back from Tommy John, Deivi Garcia and his 30 IP and Jordan Montgomery). I’m not including Domingo German who as of now still has a job but it will be interesting to see how the Yankees tightrope his suspension and a return if at all.

Adding Castillo would instantly put the Yankees rotation on par with the top 5 rotations in all of baseball. Montgomery isn’t flashy but he’s solid as a 5th starter. I like Deivi Garcia alot. I think he has the stuff to be really good in two to three years. But until then he would be a good four in this rotation. Kluber would slot in as a three which is a necessity since Severino wouldn’t be expected to be back until June at the earliest and the Yankees would want to bring him in slowly. The Yankees would be giving up Clarke Schmidt in this deal for Castillo.

The Yankees have Michael King, Albert Abreu, and Luis Medina as options as well. Now, what that means for them this season is something else altogether.

To me the line up is stacked but the Yankees have been linked to Michael Brantley as well. If they added Brantley at LF, while trading for Castillo how can anyone pick against this team come October? Or even Marcell Ozuna for that matter. There are a number of reasons to believe Trevor Bauer won’t be wearing a Yankee hat outside of his free agent Youtube videos. There’s that thing with Gerrit Cole which may or may not have been squashed and Trevor’s penchant for stirring up the interwebs with his outspoken antics which for the straight laced, clean shaven Yankees may be too much. Plus he’s just too expensive.

Do they go after Joc Pederson who can play every OF spot defensively? Want a cheaper SP option? What about Taijuan Walker or Jake Odorizzi who are at the top of most peoples lists for back end depth options. You can argue both are probably a tinker or two away from becoming good pitchers and incredible value. The Yankees don’t have exciting options outside of the Castillo trade and given their 40 man situation, where this roster is currently, a Castillo trade makes a ton of sense for the Yankees to pursue. Get it done Cash.

Why would the Mets sign everyone but hold the line for JD Davis and what does that mean for what the Mets do next – JD from Flushing

Most people don’t understand why the Mets want to go through arbitration hearings when all that separates both sides is $400K but a deeper look could tell you where the Mets are looking at upgrading. Alot of people think the Mets next buy is Brad Hand to help the Mets bullpen. The Mets keep talking about using money to upgrade since the Mets don’t have the kind of prospect depth to swing the kind of trade they need. So CF will likely need to be a FA acquisition but Alderson has said multiple times that in lieu of a DH in the national league he doesn’t want to see Dom Smith or JD Davis play LF.

The reality is getting a true CF, whether its Springer or Jackie Bradley Jr or Albert Almora Jr helps the OF situation by moving Nimmo to left and you either learn to live with Davis at 3b or you work him in a platoon with Luis Guillorme. His value is tied to how that situation plays out. If Davis is a platoon guy then paying more than they want to for Davis makes little sense even for a team that is actively spending like the Mets.

The fans are all over about what the next priority should be as long as they close Brad Hand. They’ve been linked to Kris Bryant although you can’t envision them trading for and giving him an extension unless the cost to acquire him came down. The Mets have around $21M now that all the arbitration numbers are in. Some have argued that going the Lemiehu route on Springer (signing him for a longer contract to bring the AAV down) makes sense but the Mets will likely be negotiating with both Lindor and Conforto on long term extensions at the same time.

In my previous mailbag I predicted the value on Lindor and Conforto extensions. The Mets are locked in at $68M in commitments. Fitting a Springer at a lower AAV could be done but the question is whether the Mets want to do that over the other options. Much of that won’t be answered until we know whether Lindor and Conforto can be signed long term. That’s why I think the Springer offer is a take it or leave it offer until the Mets know where the other two are in terms of contracts. So my prediction is Springer could wait this out to keep the Mets in it to try adn get the Mets the most money possible.

My prediction: Davis opens the season as their 3B but the Mets could look to trade for Bryant at the midpoint of next season when the ask would be lower. This is a make or break season for Davis and his future on this franchise given the line the Mets decided to draw in the sand in arbitration. Davis would be the fourth Met in the last 28 years to go to arbitration.

Is anyone going to take the BlueJays money? Mark S from Toronto 

You have to believe someone will. The Blue Jays have an enviable $116M in in luxury tax space this year and don’t have more than $33M in commitments next year with Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio still in pre-arb years and Vlad Jr entering his first arb year next year. Theoretically the Blue Jays could meet Bauer’s price and Realmuto’s price and Springer’s price IF they chose to do so but the bet here is that only one will take their money.

The recent news that Springer would like to play close to his Connecticut home is half negotiating tactic aimed at keeping the Mets involved, and half truth. We will know soon if Springer is just trying to extract additional monies from the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays offered a higher AAV for Lemeihu with their reported 4 year $78M offer but they weren’t willing to extend beyond that number to rob Lemiehu from the Yankees, if that was even something DJ was considering.

At some point the Blue Jays will have to make an aggressive offer for somebody. So it makes sense for Springer to stay in for as long as possible. Im wondering if the Blue Jays who so far haven’t been linked too close to Bauer or Realmuto shift energy into signing both.

Jayson Stark of the Athletic reported the Phillies made a 5 year offer for $100M recently. Would the Blue Jays be motivated to go big for Realmuto? They have Danny Jansen at the position now, and don’t have a prospect within 3 years of making the big league club so there’s an opportunity to massively upgrade the position and then spend big on shoring up the rotation and bullpen.

To me Bauer is a fit since Ross Atkins their current GM and and President of Baseball Operations Mark Shapiro both were in Cleveland when they traded for Bauer. They know what they are getting but do they want to sink $30M+ on a pitcher who just turned 30? Tough to know.

If I had to predict one would sign I’m guessing its Springer. The Mets priorities will be to re-sign Lindor and Conforto and at the minimum engage Syndegaard on a contract extension as well. Until they know what they are working with for the next few years its hard to figure on Springer. You get the sense that the Blue Jays will want to have one big contract expense to point to when discussing their offseason so its not a total failure even if it means overpaying for one of the guys.

Are we still going to start baseball on time? Rob M from NYC

No Rob. No we won’t. There isn’t any evidence that we are at the stage of vaccine deployment where enough of the population will get it so that we can get back to some amount of fans at all ballparks this year to begin the year.

My prediction is that we start Spring training in mid March with May being a scheduled start so we can have a 140 game schedule. I also predict many of the rules that existed last year will be in effect next year including expanded playoffs, 7 innings for double headers, runners at 2nd for extra inning games and most importantly the DH in the NL.

Why is Thibs continually going to Elfrid Payton over Immanuel Quickley? Immanuel Q from Midtown

Finally a basketball question!

I couldn’t tell you other than Thibs wants to ease Quickley into the expanded role that he should be playing. He’s a rookie and looks like the future at backcourt for the Knicks.

https://twitter.com/ThomasCDee/status/1350496597336010754

 There isn’t a basketball reason for keeping Payton in at PG and playing him meaningful minutes. There’s an energy, skill and IQ (pardon the pun) uptick as soon as Quickley comes into the ballgame. Thibs isn’t dumb and has to manage this team through its first rough stretch. They’ve lost their last 5 games and are now playing the Celtics which will most likely be their sixth loss removing most of the optimism from their 5-3 start.

I said most because its clear that some good things have happened. Quickley is proving to be a steal. Obi hasn’t played and will be a boon with his ability and athleticism. Randle is playing at a 3rd team All NBA level which could result in what will surely be a healthy should we or shouldn’t we trade Randle for assets discussion among Knicks fans.

Most importnatly Kevin Knox, the guy who was on the outs in most Knicks fans eyes has begun to see life. He’s hitting 44% from deep, attempting the same amount while seeing his highest PER in his young career. Speaking of developments, it turns out putting the ball as much as possible in RJ Barret’s hands is a good decision.

Barrett is making the type of statistical leap in year two that most players are making although the wins aren’t adding up. Barrett’s 3P shooting aside (he’s at 20.7% for the year), his PER is up and so is his confidence. He’s the guy on this team and entrusting him in those situations can only help as the year goes on and for his development. If we are trashing the Knicks for faulty draft pick decisions we have to atleast see them in extended periods to make a true judgement and incremental improvements in most areas show that Barrett could be on the cusp. The threes will start to fall and as a ballhandler once the defense doesn’t sag off him from beyond the arc, his opportunities to drive and set up teammates or himself will increase and he’s a natural ball handler for a guy his size.

Quickley’s emergence can help both players. Knox doesn’t have to justify his draft slot and can be the hustle guy who drains the occasional three. Barrett has options with the ball in his hands, since Quick is a natural catch and shoot guy and as a guy who can set up Barrett from deep. But its incumbent that both players can take advantage of the opportunities. When the Knicks had their four game win streak all three were playing well along with Randle. They will need that again if the Knicks plan on being the fun team again.

Is James Harden the final piece to the puzzle or the beginning of the end of this current Brooklyn Nets run? Sean M from Brooklyn 

My answer to the Harden trade is you trade for the talent, and worry about the fit later. Harden is a top 5 player in the NBA. Those players don’t come along often and he and KD get along. The Brooklyn fit with Kyrie is everyone’s big question mark but the pick and roll with Bruce Brown that Harden ran is terrifying if they can run that with Kyrie and KD on both ends and Joe Harris in another corner. This team will have to outscore every other team but the good news is that outside of Anthony Davis and Lebron James they have two of the most unstoppable offensive weapons in the game in Harden and KD and Kyrie who when mentally in, offers a luxury that no other team outside of the 2017 Warriors could match.

Of course there’s concern that this could blow up in their face but kudos to Sean Marks for making this trade. This is why you stockpile assets. Think about where this franchise came up from to now. This is NOT the Paul Pierce/KG trade where you are trading for washed up players well past their prime. KD is playing like like he never left. Harden posted a triple double in his first game with the Nets and we haven’t even seen Kyrie yet play with them.

Defense is a concern of course but not many teams can offer the offensive firepower the Nets do. Now its on Steve Nash to earn his keep as a coach. Much of Steve Kerr’s value in 2015 was unlocking the style of play the Warriors played that took them from a playoff team to a world champion and then in 2016 to the greatest regular season team ever. But he also excelled in the intangible part of coaching which was coaxing the most out of the team. Having guys like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson who are not the reported headcases that Kyrie and Harden are help but many pointed to Nash’s excellent reputation as a communicator as the reason why they moved on from Kenny Atkinson who oversaw the development of the Nets pre-KD and Kyrie acquisitions.

Now we will know if Nash has hte chops to be a head coach. Can we manage these personalities? Marks is doubling down on his Nash bet by giving him the kind of combustible team that could either win spectacularly or flame out spectacularly but they will for sure take up plenty of national coverage real estate. The talent is too great to ignore so I think its a great idea to trade for one of the top 3 best offensive players of his generation, but also a risk that much of what makes him great could erode the trust the franchise/team have.

All three superstars have the option to jump ship after next year. All three are not going to just shut up and play for the sake of it. Lesson here Knicks- this is why you spend time developing young players and the team. This is why you don’t trade away valuable commodities like first round picks for guys who don’t fit or semi-stars. Sean Marks turned no first round picks and a crappy cap situation into Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden.

You can see why the Rockets chose the Nets offer. Forget the rumor that Tillman Fertita ordered the Rockets front office not to discuss a trade with Daryl Morey and the Sixers who would have reportedly discussed Ben Simmons. If this doesn’t work out the Rockets will have extremely valuable assets moving forward into 2027. Assets, if used right and it flames out, they could use to build the next great team in Houston.

Of course stranger things have happened. I mean judging by pictures Harden lost nearly 40 pounds in the last week. This Nets team could win the next 3 titles and put KD up their with Lebron and MJ in the GOAT discussion. Their success could force teams like the Celtics to make the usually frenetic Danny Ainge to consider taking drastic steps to open a title window by swinging for a big move. Will this Nets team success challenge the Greek Freak’s loyalty?

Remember, the Warriors title teams made Daryl Morey trade for CP3 and then Russell Westbrook which eventually forced its own destruction. It made Lebron face his own mortality and plan the team up with Davis in LA. The Celtics probably figured they could wait the Warriors run out with their young studs Tatum and Brown. How patient can they afford to be if this new big 3 plays well?

There’s a lot riding on this trio. EIther it flames out or teams begin to reconsider whether their roster is good enough to compete in the short term. It could make for interesting subplots leaguewide. There could be more trades. Bradley Beal will be traded. There are only a few teams that can take him on knowing they have a legit chance of beating the Nets if everything falls into place.

You do this trade everytime and figure it out later.

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January 10, 2021 · 5:16 pm

Moving forward for the Mets

If you haven’t read my last piece about the the Lindor/Cookie trade read it here.

I had some more thoughts about it so I thought I’d just answer those questions with a fake mailbag so let’s go

Steve from Great Neck writes:
What are our options for signing him and what do you think it will take to get it done?

Steve, thanks for the question. There are a few things to consider and I’ll do my best to lay out all of the important factors here:

A. Do the Mets HAVE to sign him before the season? No. But as Sandy alluded to in the press conference they made the trade with the understanding that he’s on a one year deal (negating the value of prospect return) but with optimism that when team brass reach out to his agents they can work something out long term.

And they should be confident. They have the richest owner in baseball and a man who made a ton of money in 2020 while all of us were making Tik Toks. They can be as aggressive as they want and the assumption is that they will work something out prior to Spring Training because its in the best interest of the team to know where they stand with him contractually and be certain of the price tag moving forward because they have a few other extensions with homegrown players like Noah Syndegaard and Michael Conforto to work out as well.

B. Is it in the best interest of both parties to sign him before the season? Yes. Lindor and his agents understand the current financial economy of baseball. Covid has for sure taken some bite out of the financial pie and it will be interesting to see how they use that in the CBA talks coming up after the conclusion of the 2021 season. Lindor knows the Mets and Steve Cohen want to make a splash and he can use that excitement to negotiate in good faith.

Since Lindor has come into the league he has been one of the most charismatic and best two players in the game. The notion that he would have to prove he can play in NY is silly. Besides, the Mets aren’t paying for past production for a 27 year old, they are paying for the player he will be, a superstar two way shortstop who can hit in 3 hole and produce like few can entering his prime. This is his time to get the $30M+ extension for sure.

For the Mets its easy to see why its in their best interest. There’s cost certainty moving forward so they can move on to extensions for Thor and Conforto but there’s also the need to go all the way with Cohen’s first splash. Not completing an extension would make this deal feel incomplete and would remove some of the excitement and put Mets fans right back into the air of despair they constantly seem to be in.

But now there are rumors that the Padres are moving towards extending Tatis Jr. If that’s true it would set the market for Lindor and the other shortstops in the 2021 class. The Mets have done a good job until now of keeping their cards close to their vest, so one has to wonder if the Mets who denied having a period to negotiate a long term contract in trade talks, will try to engage Lindor’s agent sooner than a few weeks.

As for what will get it done? My prediction is that it will be an 8 year $256M deal with an opt out after year 4 so he can try and cash out again. That gives him a better annual per year salary than Machado and would allow him to re-enter the free agent market when presumably the sport of baseball and the economy will have recovered from CoVid.

George from Connecticut writes: What are the chances that the Mets go after Springer? His two way defense/offense will push this team over the hump as favorites in the NL East at the minimum right?

George, thanks for the question and there’s no doubt Springer is a proven commodity not only in the regular season but most importantly in the postseason which the Mets and its fanbase have to be dreaming about with the recent moves they’ve made. But the financial part of this is where it gets dicey.

The Mets and especially Cohen, have made it clear they are hesitant to pay big money for guys who are 30+ because as history tells us those contracts end up biting the team in the butt. So its hard to see the Mets paying Springer’s reported asking price of $150M.

But one of Jared Porter’s key talking points from Thursday’s press conference to announce the deal for Lindor was that they will be creative and wait out the market. It has to be tough for Springer’s agents to hear because it likely meant that any offer the Mets may have made the Mets won’t likely go above that number so Springer has to be wary. He’s 31, so taking a one year deal is risky as owners are likely to cry poor again next year since its reasonable to assume that a portion of this season will be played without any fans in most states.

So Porter and the Mets will wait Springer out and can afford to do so with this trade. The Mets don’t desperately need to add more offense to a team that was 13th last year in runs per game and that was with the team being dead last in all of baseball with runners left in scoring position. To that lineup you just added one of the best run producers in baseball. The Mets have regained leverage to allow Springer to walk and there may be some good to spread the wealth to add another starter to the mix to round out the rotation or add elsewhere.

If I had to guess I’m guessing despite it all Springer will be a Toronto Blue Jay and that it will be announced next week.

Kris from Chicago writes: Is 3B a real priority for the Mets that it makes a Kris Bryant trade something they should actually pursue?

Kris! Great question and curious you spell your name that way too! Run scoring and run prevention is high on the list of priorities for the Mets. Their 3b options are Jeff McNeil, JD Davis and Luis Guillorme. Let’s remove Jeff McNiel who will likely play 2b full time with Guillorme coming in to spell him at times. So right now its either JD Davis or Luis Guillorme. Davis is a bat first guy and Sandy and Jared made it a point to talk up the fact that they need to work on Davis to make him a better defender and the we have a guy by the name of Luis Guillorme” wasn’t a full on stamp of approval for Luis either so its fair to say that 3b is an area of concern defensively for the Mets.

So it makes sense that the Mets are in the market for a 3B. There was talk about the Mets engaging Seattle about Kyle Seager and defensively that makes sense as he was 3rd in UZR ( 6.9) in all of baseball in 2019 before taking a slip to 11th with a -0.4 rating in 2020. But Jerry DiPoto hung up when he realized he wasn’t talking to Brodie.

The Mets were reportedly talking to the Cubs re: Bryant but per Andy Martino of SNY those talks ended weeks ago and per the timeline the Mets moved on to Lindor. Bryant is also entering his walk year and due to make $19M. Per Mike Puma the Cubs were interested in Francisco Alvarez but if the Mets were unwilling to include him in a deal for Lindor, it seems highly unlikely they would offer him up for an inferior player. My prediction is that the Nats make a run at him but watch for the Braves who if the DH doesn’t come to the NL could view Bryant as their offensive spark plug they pay on a one year deal. They have the deep prospect capital to get it done.

There’s pie in the sky re: Arenado but that would be overly indulgent and make no sense since its not a secret that should the Dodgers not trade for Arenado, he will exercise his opt out and try to work out a deal with them next year which is why the Dodgers are playing hardball with their current 3B Justin Turner who wants a 4 year deal.

So where do the Mets turn to for 3B defense? Its clear the Mets want Davis’ bat in the line up but they are concerned what happens to them defensively when he does play there as they made it clear they don’t want him or Dom to see LF extensively next year. My guess is that they keep Davis and Guillorme and resist temptation to trade more prospects for short term help.

Jared from Flushing writes do the Mets go bullpen or get more starter depth?

Excellent question Jared. Honestly? I think they go both. I can see them going after a Collin McHugh over a Corey Kluber or James Paxton since it would cost less because I think they will go after a Hand/Hendriks to overhaul the bullpen. In the end I think the Mets get Hand as they were open about their interest in him since Sandy’s initial press conference. He’s a lefty and has had incredible numbers and would be an incredible weapon. I can also see them reuniting with Justin Wilson if Hand doesn’t pan out as Wilson had some great numbers with the Mets.

Porter and Sandy talked about depth and the need for more pitching. So it makes sense that they would be proactive on that market but again the benefit of the Lindor/Carrasco trade is that they don’t have to be desperate about it. They can sit back and let the market flesh itself out. Even better news for Mets fans is that they are the market. Every agent will try to engage the Mets or remain in their orbit hoping the Mets outbid other teams for their clients services. With the Mets looking like a contender on paper, don’t underestimate guys like Kluber or Paxton signing on for less to ride the wave but both would sign on for one year coming off injury.

Noah and Michael from Midtown, NY ask what’s the latest on a Conforto and Syndegaard extension?

Right now mum is the word but so was word last week this time before the new Mets unleashed the Lindor trade on the world. Things can escalate quickly but the date to look at for both is February 1. That’s the arbitration hearing deadline and while the Mets did agree with Thor on a $9.7M salary for 2021 (which on a pro-rated salary was the same as his 2020 salary) the Mets may want to see how Thor comes back in 2021 before signing him to an extension.

But you have to believe Conforto is the likelier candidate to see a contract worked out before Spring Training.

Cohen and Sandy talked about the need to lock up homegrown talent and it must have been music to Scott Boras’ ears. Boras is notorious for taking his clients to free agency, dropping the personalized to player binder on team’s tables and negotiating off that to get the very best deal for his clients. But Conforto’s comments from this MLB.com article suggest that he would be open to extension talks before entering free agency especially if he felt like the Mets offer something reasonable:

“Everyone always says that Scott is a big free-agency guy and he’s a big fan of that, but Scott … is obviously going to give me the best advice that he feels he has for me as a player and for my career,” Conforto said in February. “Ultimately, it’s my decision. I think it’s somewhat of a misconception about Scott and his clients. He wants what’s best for us. He’s going to give us his best advice. But at the end of the day, he’ll tell you, ‘It’s my client’s decision.’”

Conforto plays corner OF and last year made some refinements to his approach to really open up his game. He’s good for 25+ HR’s and 80 RBI’s with a .260 average every year and if you believe his production from last year was no fluke then he’s likely entering hte prime of his career having made the adjustments that will see his numbers jump. Especially hitting in this lineup with Lindor in it you would assume Conforto gets more opportunities to produce runs which would only make Boras’ binder thicker and ask larger.

My prediction? The Mets get Conforto to sign for 5 years with an option for a 6th year based on qualifiers for a $21M year average.

Joel from Westchester writes what happens to the Mets long term if they just sign everybody?

Joel, you must be referring to this article Joel Sherman of the Post wrote re: contracts not being done in a vacuum for the Mets. Its true. The Lindor and Conforto extensions will draw a line in teh sand on future salary commitments especially if the Mets don’t have enough reinforcements in the pipeline to refill the roster at minimal expense.

Cohen spoke about building a team like the Dodgers. They are undoubtedly the best team in baseball and have a top 10 farm system. The Yankees are like that too. That’s the end goal for Cohen.

But Joel raises some important concerns regarding future roster construction issues that can come with handing out multi-year extensions for all of these players. But that’s where Porter and Zack Scott come into play. They were brought in for their abilities to identify players that could play at minimal expense to the payroll. Its easy to identify Lindor as someone to acquire.

This is why the call to build depth isn’t just GM talk from Jared Porter. While the $210M competitive tax isn’t a line the Mets can’t cross, it would have to be justified especially in year one of the Cohen experience.

I did a less than scientific payroll experiment for 2022. Per Spotrac, the Mets have $68M committed for 2022. Let’s say we sign Lindor and Conforto to the extensions I suggested above, that means $32M for Lindor and $21M for Conforto that means $53M. Let’s assume some generous raises (note I’m not an expert so this is a likely bad estimate) for arbitration and pre arbitration candidates and that means another $45M in salary commitments.

So that means our payroll is now at $166M. If the competitive tax remains at $210M that means we have $44M to get to the competitive tax and that’s assuming Mets don’t cross the tax this year. So they may have even more to spend. Not a bad spot to be in but will require some forward thinking trades to get depth and some below market deals. This is where Zack Scott and Jared Porter will be judged. While there’s plenty of work to be done, especially on the SP depth, there’s reason to believe that if the top 6 prospects take steps forward the Mets can be really dangerous.


Thanks for all the fake mail and let’s keep it coming. The Mets have a pretty awesome future and let’s take this in before the team takes the field for 2021 that this season will be exciting!

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January 8, 2021 · 6:19 pm

Cookie, Frankie and the Mets!

I was getting into my car with my dad in the passenger seat, and two annoyed kids who just went to the pediatrician’s office complaining in the back seat when I removed my phone from my back pocket before sitting down. By force of habit I looked at the screen when I saw the alert from Jeff Passan:

I reflexively pressed hard on my brake. The car was in park.

My father concerned by my expression asked if everything was ok. “Yes” I said comically happy, “everything is great!”

Those are words I wouldn’t have used a year ago after it was becoming painfully clear that Steve Cohen may not end up owning the team. But a lot has changed over the past year. And this being one of them. To take from Ken Rosenthal’s latest story title “The Mets are a big-market bully again”.

Here is the deal:

As Sandy Alderson said in his press conference to announce the trade yesterday “it came at a signficant cost”. The Mets traded away some of their infield depth in Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez and some of their prospect depth in Josh Wolf and Isiah Greene but got back in return a superstar shortstop and a starting pitcher locked in for 3 years at a team friendly rate.

To say the Mets got the better end is not scratching the surface on what this move does to the franchise. Here’s a few thoughts I had while listening to Sandy Alderson (Team President) and Jared Porter (General Manager) during yesterday’s press conference to formally announce the trade:

NOBODY knew this deal was coming- In years past, the Mets leaked like a bucket full of water with holes. Not anymore. This is another reminder that it is no longer business-as-usual in Flushing. This regime kept this under wraps until the deal was complete and kudos to them for being able to do so.

Sandy said that this deal had been in the works since the beginning of the offseason and went from just Lindor to including Carrasco. He also mentioned that while he was averse to trading away from a thin prospect system, the ability to get Lindor and a top flight SP without sacrificing the top five or six prospects in the system was an opportunity the team couldn’t pass up.

The cost of acquisition was high- Make no mistake, the Mets traded away not one but two starting caliber shortstops with Amed Rosario estimated to earn around $2.2M per Spotrac in his first year of arbitration and two more arbitration years and Andres Gimenez two years away from arbitration and total 5 years of cost controlled service time. They also gave up two guys with untapped potential in Wolf and Greene, who were in the bottom part of a system that’s ranked around 20 in most publications eyes.

Questions came fast and furious about what this means for the rest of the infield depth and Sandy was quick to point out Luis Guillorme still existed who is an excellent defensive IF and Jeff McNeil has some versatility to play second and third but the real questions were about third base.

Jared Porter pointed out that the major league developmental team would work with JD Davis to improve his defensive ability so he could offer more value at 3B but in answering a question about what’s next he did say that they were looking for good defensive players with versatility to play multiple positions. So its not clear yet what the Mets plan on doing at 3B or if Davis is a permanent solution but it bears watching how they deploy Davis if his defense doesn’t improve. Perhaps its a pipe dream but there are rumblings that the Mets checked in on Kris Bryant. But given the backlash from everyone on the Darvish trade the Cubs may be hesitant to give up Bryant for nothing despite him also being a year out from free agency.

Acquisition over cost- This quote keeps coming to mind and once again drew focus for me when Sandy answered questions about Lindor’s signability. One of the biggest drawbacks of the former ownership group were their shyness to dip their toes into the deep waters of big time free agency thanks to their dabbling in Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Those restrictions clearly do not apply to Steve Cohen who promised Mets fans that they would spend when appropriate.

This seems appropriate. Many throughout baseball expect the Mets and Lindor to discuss a contract extension and for an agreement to happen prior to the season that will set the market for next year’s big SS class which will include Corey Seager (if this Lindor trade and signing don’t exacerbate urgency from the Dodgers to engage him as well), Trevor Story (who won’t be affected by the Nolan Arenado trade rumblings) and Javier Baez (you get the feeling the Cubs will be shedding him as well soon).

But Sandy spoke with optimism that while the return was based on Lindor being a player signed to one year, and the fact that the Mets were taking on all of Carrasco’s future salary commitment (two years at $24M and a vesting option for a third year at $14M) that they didn’t require a period to negotiate with Lindor’s agent. That’s the confidence an owner flush with cash can bring. The fact is they leveraged that into a lesser return to the Indians although the return the Indians got for both was fair in most player evaluation’s eyes. Notice I didn’t say equal.

Speaking of cost, does this mean the Mets are out on other big named free agents? Probably not- I need to be completely honest here- I can’t see the Mets signing Springer now unless the Mets either get creative to finesse some salary off the books, and Porter consistently said that they would be opportunistic and creative to make the team better, or if Springer takes less than we all think.

But Sandy made it clear that while the $210M Luxury tax threshold is an important line of demarcation, it isn’t a line that he has been told he can’t cross. Again expressing ownership’s new outlook on being competitive and being willing to pay the price when necessary. The Mets won’t spend like drunken sailors but it all depends on how drunk they get amirite?

Sandy’s “appetite for more talent” really drives home the point that the Mets are operating under a new ideal. This team has a few more questions to address like how they will address their defense in centerfield, what to do about the back up catching position, how else to beef up their bullpen. Porter made it clear when he said what Mets fans have said all along- there’s always a need for pitching. More pitching. So it will be interesting to see how the Mets address their CF position but this next question is the more pressing concern.

How is the lack of clarity on the DH affecting the Mets in free agency? There likely won’t be an answer for another few weeks which will leave guys like Marcell Ozuna available as the offseason goes on so when Sandy and Jared say that the market will dictate how they proceed- he’s right. But it affects the Mets pursuit of Springer and Jackie Bradley Jr if it forces them to choose between Nimmo and Dom Smith. Nimmo has the longer track record in terms of productivity offensively but he’s miscast as a CF just like Dom Smith is miscast as a corner OF. In an ideal world, Dom is the Mets 1B/DH and so is Pete Alonso and the Mets sign Springer/or JBJ moving Nimmo to a corner OF spot.

But MLB has dragged its feet on the DH situation and while the feeling is that in the next CBA that discussion will resolve itself, the reality is that the Mets can’t really move confidently forward without knowing where baseball stands on the issue in 2021. The inclusion of the DH in 2020 felt like a concession to players to get a deal done but for whatever reason despite its success MLB won’t resolve that issue just yet.

In the new reality however, the Mets can spend on CF and hope that the issue of the DH resolves itself in the Mets favor. And Sandy again reiterated that it is in the Mets best interest that the DH comes to the NL next year and moving forwad.

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January 3, 2021 · 2:14 pm

Steve Cohen in the age of access

I’ve thought about this tweet alot. With one tweet, Steven Cohen was able to do what previous ownership* who shall remain nameless from here on out was unable to do: keep Mets fans in the loop in the vacuum of inactivity.

*= Its not that I refuse to talk about them because of their laundry list of personal defects that caused them to be among the most hated humans on Mets twitter, its that for me why waste our breath constantly comparing any regime to them? I’m trying to move my energy elsewhere. Also I may have broken my vow later in this article.

For many of us who were around for the Pre-Cohen days it seems unfathomable that the owner would be taking to a public forum this actively without the slimy tactics of “leaked sources” to state-run television to spread the gospel of patience.

But Steven A Cohen is not your ordinary owner. Have you ever listened to billionaires or seen them in a public setting? Nothing makes them squirm more than being asked a why question. Why means there’s a gripe coming and they don’t handle failure well. Presumably, we’ve been told, that’s what makes them ultra successful.

Cohen came with that type of rap sheet. After all some have taken to the myth building of Cohen by suggesting that some of the inspiration behind the character played by Damian Lewis on Billions is inspired by Cohen. While that’s nice and all*, its been his ability to lower himself to interact with #Metstwitter that has been a breath of fresh air.

*= Boss is what it actually is.

He not only is natural, but he’s gone out of his way to ::gasp:: solicit their opinions on the truly important issues of the day such as:

or even this:

Its truly uncharted territory for an owner to be this forward and direct with the fan base. Especially one as irrational as the Mets fanbase is. Its been 2 months since the deal was closed and there are Mets fans who are being impatient about the overall glacial pace that the free agent market is moving in.

What didn’t help were the Padres reaching deep into their war chest of prospects to pull off two stunning trades to vault them into the conversation of a top 5 team in baseball.

But fear not, even in the midst of all the angst and self doubt/loathing found on Mets twitter, Cohen managed to speak to his base with the kind of fair minded reasoning that only made those who were craving news even more furious. It was fun to see and also refreshing. Because what is an irrational fanbase if they are being bludgeoned by patience and well reasoned arguments?

Steven Cohen came in waxing poetic about attending games as a kid at the Polo Grounds, falling in love with the ’69 Mets as most of his generation did, polishing his authenticity as one of the legion of Mets fans who “care” or “get it” and went on social media to double down.

But Cohen’s introductory press conference should tell us everything we can expect: he looks at owning the team as a public trust. He loves commiserating with fans, even the bitter ones. He won’t spend money just to spend money because he wants to build something sustainable.

The best quote came from Sandy Alderson, the Team President- “acquisition over cost”. It doesn’t read as flashy as “come get us” but it does the trick.

He will make the move that fans will point to, even those who are openly crying on Mets forums, as the sign that he’s the real deal but it may not happen just yet. Maybe not even this season.

But atleast he will be direct and you get the sense that he isn’t afraid to put his thoughts out there about why he could or could not make the move like when he congratulated the Padres on the Snell and Darvish trades:

I see no lies told.

The honesty is refreshing but the access Mets fans have is a reflection of who Cohen intends to be: an open book. Not Steinbrenner-ish (I hope) with violent outbursts in the media. But invested enough with the fan base that he will at the very least respond even to the outlandish ones.

This kind of access is almost unprecedented save for Mavs owner Mark Cuban. You don’t see team owners actively engaging with their audience in a way that most youtubers understand is essential to winning people over. Its such a small thing to do but so gigantic in how a fan can feel like they are being heard. Imagine Jeff Bezos leaving comments about your subscription orders on Amazon? How much fun would that be?*

*= Actually not because Jeff Bezos is a Bond villain and you can’t convince me otherwise.

For Mets fans its a breath of fresh air. Think about how many times ownership has stood so far back protected by the darkness so they wouldn’t be exposed? How many times Mets fans demanded answers about their unwillingness to spend and being given the all good hand signal with not a single person believing any of it?

This isn’t to say that Cohen won’t have terrible days. That his willingness to engage with Mets fans over social media has created an unrealistic expectation that he is at their beck and call day and night when they have a question. But this is to suggest that if something newsworthy happens- he won’t hide. He will be the face in front of the camera and the microphone and its refreshing.

Here’s to better days and better times to come!

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April 10, 2016 · 10:35 pm

Game 4 and 5 (Stop gaps and Stay Puts)

VelasquezThere’s a few ways  to look at teams rebuilding: they are either in it to bottom out and nab as many top 10 picks as humanly possible while not completely turning off the fan base.  Or they are hard at work at assembling a roster that will compete while telling everyone that they will stink this year.

The Phillies are more the latter than the former and the Mets are quickly finding that out.

Last year the Phillies didn’t win their second game against the Mets until September.  Its April 10th and now the Phillies have taken a series.  For the Mets to win their division and ultimately hold off the Nationals and perhaps even the Marlins, they have to win every game they can against the Phillies and Braves because you have to assume the other two probable contenders are doing the same.

The Phillies though are playing with pride and that’s what happens early on.  The season hasn’t escaped them and they forget that the goal even is to lose 100 games and get the draft picks rather than play spoiler so early in the season.  But perhaps even tougher to stomach for the Mets than late season games in division will be these games that they should have won and let slip away.

Saturday’s game featured one of the major pieces of that rebuild haul they received from the Astros in the Ken Giles trade.  Vincent Velasquez threw mid 90’s heat, pitched inside to lefties and kept the ball down and was dominant for most of the evening.  It was cold and there were two pitchers, one on the early side of his 20’s and one on the early side of his 40’s and both unwilling to give in to the elements.

Velazquez wasn’t just pitching great, he was pitching with an attitude and a swagger that we here in Queens haven’t seen since Matt Harvey in the 2012 days.  A hard throwing righty not knowing any better and going out and winning a game or two and announcing himself to the league.  Velazquez will be better served to develop that inside game to lefties and develop a better slider (some of those pitches came dangerously close to fat part of the lumber) but the tools are there.  The biggest one, attitude, is already there.  I loved every part of his game and look forward to his development as a starter.

His counterpart of Saturday was a young Bartolo Colon.  Maybe he’s already turned into one of those Ice Zombie things from Game of Thrones and thus can no longer feel cold, but his sleeveless outfit and general low 90’s cheddar was humming all afternoon save for one that sailed outside, but not out enough before Ryan Howard, old foe, put a charge into one and deposited it into the left field seats for the margin deciding run.

Losing 1-0 games suck.  Going to games where your team loses 1-0 sucks worse.  Losing 1-0 games to rookie pitchers against what should be a doormat suck worse.  These are the games  where you get runners in scoring position often, that you look back on and smack your head.  The Mets got to the Philly bullpen again in the 7th and had 3 innings to put atleast one run on the board, but the Philly bullpen refused to comply.

As a Met fan you just have to shake your head.  This early in the season, driving yourself crazy over a 1-0 loss will do you no good.  This is about the marathon.

The next day against Matt Harvey some of the worry about this supposed all-time great rotation reared its ugly head.  Harvey is supposed to be the bulldog.  The “best pitcher” out of the group especially in year two post-Tommy John surgery.  But his slider still has not returned to peak 2013 form and his fastball is still very straight and very much down the middle.

Ron Darling said it in mid-broadcast.  His mechanics have been off for two weeks going back to Spring Training and until he’s mechanically sound, Harvey will continue being ordinary.  Sitting now at 0-2 Harvey seems to get stuck in the same mess.  Get yourself into a mess and can’t give up that extra hit.  Had Herrera not taken him deep, the Phillies are down 2-1 heading into the seventh and momentum and the game goes differently.  Herrera’s homerun allowed the Phillies to stomach the Yoenis Cespedes homerun off an excellent at-bat and once they got out of that inning the confidence to make it the rest of the way.

Jeremy Hellickson is NOT a prospect, though he once was considered one of the best young pitchers in the game.  One of the few pitchers Tampa had coming to the majors that were going to lead them to multiple division titles and while he did do serviceable work, arm injuries and time off have stunted Hellickson’s development.  Once you leave an organization as well run as the Rays to go elsewhere you had better end up in the right situation before getting yourself back to where you once were.  Enter the Phillies who found Hellickson to play stop gap.

The plan is to build up his value by running him out there every fifth day and to eventually turn him into prospects either at the trade deadline OR recoup his value in a supplemental draft pick.  Hellickson hasn’t disappointed in his first two starts and despite his bullpen’s meltdown in his first start where he went 6 and didn’t give up an earned run, he was excellent again until the 6th inning and Yoenes Cespedes ran him off the mound.

Hellickson’s value is in staying in the rotation and pitching well enough to earn the win.  The Phillies hope he can make it to the sixth inning in most games and will likely throw him into the clubhouse to inflate his numbers while maintaining the rehab company line of bringing him along slowly.  This is so obviously the plan that its bound to work.

Some oblivious team will be desperate for a starter and will trade away even ONE decent prospect for him and that’s the point of these transactions for Matt Klentak and the Phillies front office.  Odrubal Herrera was a Rule 5 pick up that batted .290 and had a good OBP and showed solid promise at center field.  A majority of their starting line up is filled with guys who are young, but have been let go by the organization that originally developed them.  These are the guys that populate the rosters of teams like the Braves and Phillies.  There isn’t a bad case scenario in any of them being there- if they produce, you have a young guy on the cheap who most of the times you can sign for below market prices by playing the “we gave you a chance” card.  If they don’t, it only validates what the other team saw.

In many ways, the Phillies fans have to be excited about watching this team.  Mixed in with prospects the Phillies are legitimately excited for- like Velazquez and Aaron Nola in the rotation and Maikel Franco and JP Crawford (who will be up to the show by June you watch)- there will be guys like Hellickson who’s contribution to the Phillies will be getting to six and getting out unscathed so he can fetch some young prospects.  Every guy on this roster not named Nola, Velazquez, Franco are all either going to be traded or off the roster by the time the next great Philly roster shows up.

For the Mets, you can blame the weather and just a bit of bad luck for their misfortune these last few days but the struggles with runners in scoring position are real.  Last year the Mets did slightly better than average in situational hitting.  This year, runs have been more difficult to come by.  I don’t expect this to continue for much longer.  This is the first week, and the schedule has been so crazy and dumb that its tough for any of the hitters to develop any kind of schedule or rhythm.  While that isn’t a total excuse, you have to give a team that also started 2-3 last year before ripping 11 straight en route to a trip to the World Series the benefit of the doubt.

It was good to see Yoenis Cespedes’ power manifest in that 11 pitch at-bat.  Alot of what concerns you about Cespedes was still there.  He swung at pitches down and out of the zone.  Pitchers with quicker and better downward spiral on their offspeed stuff will trick Cespedes enough, to make him miss, but Hellickson doesn’t have that stuff.  You stay in an at-bat long enough pitchers have to go to their fourth or fifth best pitch OR throw a pitch the hitter already saw which in any case is an advantage to the hitter and on the 11th pitch, Hellickson left a changeup down and middle and Cespedes tossed that to right field for a two run home run and what looked like a momentum swinger.

But this is what you will see for the most part.  With that being said, here’s what I found interesting about the last two games:

  • The Phillies have some pitching this year.  Forget that they figured out how to pitch to the Mets this series (inside to lefties and down and away to righties),  but Velazquez was really impressive.  Mid 90’s fastball and the attitude.  When you are searching for traits in a staff ace, you often look for the guy who refuses to accept losing.  Tom Seaver came in 1967 and immediately changed the mindset of those Mets and they eventually won the World Series in 1969.  Keith Hernandez was traded from a World Series champion St Louis Cardinals team and the Cardinals way and taught those early 80’s Mets teams how to win.  Harvey was that guy for this era of the team and why fans continue to hold out hope that 2013 Matt Harvey will return to show why he was the best, and Velazquez showed the characteristics of that type of player.  Every franchise with hopes for a better future requires a guy who will go out and stop the bleeding.  The Phillies hope they have that with Velazquez.
  • Here’s another game where Harvey pitched better than the stats suggest but I’m going to look at this start and the one against the Royals from this perspective:  even with his mechanics being off, he pitched decently.  In games where the Mets can’t find runs, its clear that he presses and gives up that other run that ultimately decides the game.  The Herrera home run was tough because you had a feeling that the Mets weren’t going to be blanked in back to back games.  Its part bad luck and part mechanical failure that he has to work through.
  • I know Met fans are going to freak out and its natural.  Most of my Mets fan friends were still cautiously optimistic about this year and some of that negativity is creeping back in but I won’t allow myself to get caught in that.  Its so easy to revert back to the thinking that the Mets can’t handle success after being there for 2007 and 2008 and then 2001 and always hearing about 1988.   Its the first week and literally 100 things happened this week.  Let’s allow ourselves a full month before legit worry starts.
  • I liked David Wright’s approach in those last two AB’s.  After seeing a few pitches and swinging at a few bad ones, he went after the first pitch he saw in his final two AB’s and got a double and a single.  His aggressive approach allowed him to see Hellickson’s two weakest offerings: the ol get-me-over-strike.  Good for him.  Its good seeing your Captain fight.
  • Curtis Granderson 1 for 20.  Keep an eye on this.
  • When will Bartolo Colon start to age?  colon overhead catch  Seriously, look at this play.  Two years ago I called his arrival as the single most important signing the Mets could do.  That to me showed that Sandy Alderson wasn’t all algorithms and one year contracts.  It told me he understands how to round out a clubhouse and create an atmosphere and the veteran impact.  That’s what guys like Sam Hinkie who are completely slaves to the calculations of projection models don’t get.  That’s why you need actual baseball people in a room full of Harvard grad analysts.  Guys who will understand the not told on pie chart value of having Colon in the dugout offering advice.  This is a guy who goes out and learned the craft of pitching.  Having him around Harveys and DeGrom’s and Syndergaards make them better.  That’s where his value is.  And he keeps a clubhouse loose. colon flip marlins gif Last year’s behind the back flip was awesome because of the shot in the dugout of all his teammates and their genuine smiles.  Bartolo is for the people and he deserves all the millions he gets deep into his 40’s.
  • Also he’s a bad ass for going sleeveless.  You talk about playing mind games with the other team?
  • Big series coming up against the Marlins.  Due to a rainout in Washington the Mets will see Jared Cosart and Jose Fernandez in the first two games.  Last year the Mets kept missing Fernandez in his comeback from Tommy John.  Tomorrow will mark Steven Matz’ first start of the year and it should be a good early season test for the young lefty who struggled for most of the spring but finished with five no-hit innings.  Tuesday will have Fernandez going up against Noah Syndergaard who was absolutely lights out against the Royals.  That should be the showcase game of the night.  The Marlins will be the wild card team.  If they stay healthy they can be a thorn in both the Nationals and Mets sides.  More than just being the difference in who out of the Mets and Nationals take the division, the Marlins could wind up being in it till the end.  This is a team that won’t hesitate to make a move if they feel they are still in it.
  • No more negativity.  Tomorrow is another day but today is the best day because we’re all here.

 

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November 4, 2015 · 3:45 pm

Mets, 2015: A Year to Remember

It hasn’t been 72 hours and I’m still thinking about the Mets season that ended too soon.  I haven’t had a chance to write that paragraph since 2008 which in baseball years is equivalent to forever.  So forgive me if I write this from the perspective of a 16 year old girl that just broke up with her boyfriend all too publicly and thinks her life is over.

Yes, life moves on.  Yes its only sports.  I get all that but at the same time, I don’t.  When a baseball season ends, you’re almost glad, right?  From February through September, its nearly 8 months of ups and downs that you can’t possibly predict or pretend to not agonize over.  There will be stretches of absolute brutal play that will make you turn the game off in the 4th inning and want to sit outside and watch your wife garden without a cold one in your hand because you drank enough for two frat guys at a kegger in that four inning stretch that you’re embarrassed to be this drunk at 3pm.

But here we are writing the epitaph of the 2015 Mets season and feeling strange.  The Mets opened up as 10/1 favorites to win the world series, tied with the Washington Nationals, the presumptive favorites heading into this past season.  That sentence alone is unbelievable to write because the Nationals spent $210 million to bolster a pitching staff already thought to be the best in the major leagues.  Yet, somehow the Mets not only beat them, they destroyed them from within.

One of many criticisms that I have as a Mets fan is that the ownership group, I lovingly call the Coupon family (real name Wilpons but ya know), is too cheap to keep a contender around for the long haul.  Somewhere along the line they will try to nickel and dime their way to a championship because they didn’t want to pay the $7 fee to invest through Scottrade and instead decided to trust a guy named Bernie Madoff with their money and well, the rest is Ponzi history.  But now the stakes are different and we all know it.  Over the coming weeks, we will get into who the Mets should keep, should let walk, and who they should start the car, drive to the airport and make sure the plane took off before fist pumping.  Whether the Coupon family will bow to public sentiment is anyone’s guess, but like any parental unit on a budget they will have to do some spending to keep the house in order.

However, today is the time to look over the season and digest it all because Lord knows Mets fans deserved a season like this.  Did the Mets deserve to win?  Sure says any Mets fan.  But in reality, they faced a better version of what everyone was convinced the Cubs were.  They faced a team with the heart of a champion and a team with some serious playoff chops.  They got beat by a better team.  Those are the facts no matter what any Mets fan wants to convince you of.

Sure you can talk yourself into the fact that the Mets had a lead in three of the four games they lost to the Royals but that would only be fooling yourself into a false narrative that the Mets were close to the Royals in the intangible department.  Wanna know how I know this as fact?  Think back to every single sick feeling you got when the Royals got to our bullpen, save game 1.  When was the first time you realized that Daniel Murphy stopped snorting the good stuff he was on during the first two rounds when he was a mix of 2002 Barry Bonds and 1926 Babe Ruth? The only surprise was game one.  Had the Mets won that first game and they had every chance to do so, this series may have swung in the Mets favor, but once Alex Gordon launched Familia’s pitch into the center field stands and Familia had blown his first save of the playoffs, you knew as a Mets fan that this was a different beast the Mets were playing.

So let’s forget that every Terry Collins move that worked in the first two series didn’t seem to play to the same tune in the World Series because he wasn’t facing a team with serious flaws that could be exposed.  Playoffs are oftentimes about match ups.  Once you beat a team at its own game, you can see the wall of confidence crumbling around them.  The Dodgers had the decided pitching advantage in the Division series because they could pitch Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke four times in five games.  But when the Mets beat Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in two* out of the five games the math said that the Mets would win.

*= and it should’ve been over in 3 had it not been for that coward Chase Utley but let’s not open that wound. That’s a HBP for another day.

Jon Lester was a postseason veteran with experience and one could argue that Jake Arrieta was the best pitcher in all of baseball and the Cubs had the best under 25 positional talent in all of baseball and yet the Mets outhomered them and beat their two best pitchers en route to a sweep that even the most optimistic of Mets fans NEVER saw coming.  Surely we would, at best, beat the Cubs in 5 games.  But Daniel effing Murphy happened.

With 8 days to revel in their dominance, the Mets ran out of steam and gas that launched them into the playoffs.  From July 25th on, when they acquired Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe, finally after fans and columnists had wasted countless calls to sports talk radio shows and typed thousands of words imploring the front office to get some help, the Mets seemed to take off.  From the moment Justin Upton launched a cruel 3 run home run to help the Padres beat the Mets in a new twisted way things changed.  Or maybe, and this is everyone’s favorite version, from the time Wilmer Flores came out to play the field minutes after finding out what everyone else in the stadium seemed to know, that he had been tentatively traded along with Zack Wheeler to the Brewers for Carlos Gomez, wiping tears from his eyes because he was hurt being traded FROM the Mets.

Aside from Bret Saberhagen and Bobby Bonilla both of whom will be paid more than some of the Mets current crop of pitching beasts, nobody had ever been that open about loving the Mets.  Nobody.  And then Sandy Alderson for his next trick pulled a Yoenis Cespedes out of his hat and off they went.  From a team that could barely muster two runs to a juggernaut that couldn’t be stopped the Mets blasted their way through August.  As luck would have it the first opponents for the Mets were the Nationals.  The Nationals had underachieved all season yet were trying to convince everyone that everything would be ok with the old “wait till Denard Span comes back- then watch out world.”  Of course we had heard that line before.  The Nationals have had an excuse for every disappointment.  Who can forget sticking to their guns on Stephen Strassburg’s innings limit and ruining their best chance at a deep run?  Who can forget lifting Jordan Zimmerman after 8 and 2/3 innings because well Matt Williams knows how baseball is played and we don’t know shit.  

The Nationals always talked before the season about what they were going to do because they had the talent and deserved to be everyone’s lead dog heading in, but there was always that championship DNA that was missing.  When the Mets had acquired the pieces to legitimately threaten the Nationals, you saw how far from the title the Nationals were.  Not only did the Mets sweep that first series in late July, they then went Labor Day weekend to Washington and soul punched the Nationals in three straight games, coming back each time in stunning fashion.

To be honest, when you look back at the Wilmer Flores game, that was so typical of the Mets.  They left Flores in the game clueless to the fact that we live in an age where information gets shared so quickly that of course the fans would find out before the player does that they were traded.  That’s what the Mets do.  They fuck these things up.  Yet, it worked because of Flores’ outward show of loyalty.  That was the first sign that this team was going to do amazing things.  When the Nationals took a 4-3 lead during the Labor day weekend series opener, with Max Scherzer on the mound, and the Mets mounted a stunning comeback, you kinda sorta knew but you didn’t want to believe it.  When the Mets came back down 7-1 the following night you were almost there.  When they beat Strassburg to complete the sweep of the three game series, you knew this season was going to be special.

But that’s how fandom is when you root for a baseball team.  The fear of failure and another lost season can flip on the dime.  We as fans are allowed to change our minds when it comes to our baseball team because the baseball season is so freaking long that its like watching the Christmas story marathon on TBS every Christmas.  You fall asleep to the movie and wake up and find yourself amazed that you are in the exact spot you left it and its still going.

The season had plenty of questionable decisions that we can point to in detail.  None more so than the he said, agent said, they said, controversy over Matt Harvey’s innings limits.  Somehow the Mets again appeared to have public sentiment on their side after Harvey did damage to his tough guy, Dark Knight rep when he agreed with Scott Boras’ poorly timed and executed public demand of cutting short Matt Harvey’s workload a year removed from Tommy John.  In a case of curious Karma, it was Harvey’s tough guy rep that again did him damage when he demanded the ball in the ninth inning and began the set of events that ultimately cost the Mets the game and the World Series.

This is all to say that while the season ended badly and from late April to late July was depressing as all hell (remember the days when John Mayberry Jr was our clean up hitter?), the Mets ultimately did enough in early April and from July 31’st on to make this season memorable.  In a slog of a 162 game season, the downs usually outnumber the ups when it comes to the Mets given their recent history.  But not this season.  For Mets fans it was the culmination of all the talk of promise they had heard.  We had heard about how the pitching staff would vault the Mets into contention.  They did.  The front office promised that once they were ready to contend they would make moves and increase payroll and they did.  Despite all the criticism we were told that once Terry Collins had a major league team to manage, he would manage it well and he did.

Everything we had heard or thought about, happened.  But then the Royals came and took it all away and left us Mets fans in a sea of disappointment.  When I stepped off a flight on Monday night, I got an alert from the Mets to relive the 2015 season and they were already talking us into the old “hey atleast we got there” talk.

But that’s not what I wanted to hear.  This is what I wanted to hear:

This is what I wanted to see:

thank you

There’s work to be done this offseason and like I said its still early.  But here’s to the 2015 Mets.  They gave us moments of tension, of dominance, of history, of awesome comebacks and deflating failures.  Ultimately they went to the World Series and got beat by a better team that had an enormous chip on their shoulder after losing in Game 7 of last year’s World Series.  But take hope Mets fans.  The pitching staff will come back no matter what Scott Boras threatens.  Michael Conforto will see actual at bats against lefties next year when he transitions to everyday player.  Jeurys Familia will be the closer and from the looks of it a damn good one.  We will be adding a fifth ace in Zack Wheeler in July.

So let’s remember fondly Bartolo being Bartolo:

this tweet:

or this tweet:

Or that time the Mets made fans of even their biggest rivals.

Or that time the Captain made his return to the Mets in style.

Or the time that Cespedes just flexed on the Pirates Sean Rodriguez, 

Or that time Terry Collins hugged the fans after a huge Game 5 win against the Dodgers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oirEq6iZcbI

Or the time Reuben Tejada caned in like Willis Reed into Citi Field 

Or that time that Flores became the most popular Met like in ever. 

Or that time the Mets soul punched their biggest rivals. 

Or the time Will from Queens called Mike Francesa and well, yeah.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BheBEQIKUxI

Or that time Daniel Murphy went insane in the playoffs.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQQvMmiUooY

Or that time Jacob deGrom convinced Mets fans and baseball that he was the ace on the team during the All Star game.  

Or the time Steven Matz’s grandfather lost his collective shit at just how good his grandson was.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJ-57a-UIvA

Or the time Noah Syndergaard took to his superhero nickname in an awesome way.  

Or everytime you stared into the outfield and you saw just a sea of orange clapping plastic thundersticks and cheering like crazy people.  

Or the time you had to follow a Met game on Twitter, refreshed your feed and saw this at the very top and the fear/disappointment that would ultimately follow:

Or the time that somebody else stood looking at strike three while we got to go to the World Series.  Carlos Beltran, you’re finally off the hook (though its bullshit you ever were considering the..ok I’m over it)

Or the time you go back to back in a clinching game to completely take the home team out of it in the first inning:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgPRhZbq0JY

But most importantly, here’s to the future:

See you in Spring Training!

LETS GO METS!

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April 7, 2015 · 5:17 pm

Game 1 of 162- Mets vs. Nationals (3-1 Mets win)

Here are 10 observations from the Mets Opening day 3-1 win over the Washington Nationals.  This win ran their Opening Day record to 35-19 which gives them the best winning percentage on Opening Day in the history of the majors.

1. No win early in the season is small or big….but you have to think for the Mets, winning this game was huge.  First there was the uproar over Bartolo Colon starting.  Then there’s the fact that the Nationals are missing their leadoff hitter (Denard Span), possibly their best hitter (Anthony Rendon) and their highest salaried position player (Jayson Werth).  So take this win with a grain of salt.  But beating a team that absolutely owned you last season in a tight contest is huge.  Consider that last year in games that were decided by 3 runs or less in which the Mets and Nationals played the Mets were 2-10 and overall were 4-15.  Don’t discount how big of a win yesterday was considering your two best pitchers haven’t even pitched yet.  A series win over the Nationals will help open the season the kind of way that can legitimize all the talk of playoffs and taking the town that the Mets have been doing.

2. The Bartolo effect- When Terry Collins named Bartolo Colon the Opening Day starter the fans reacted as if the Mets had given the fan base a big middle finger.  But the more I watched Bartolo yesterday afternoon, I began to understand the reasoning behind the decision.  Harvey would’ve been way too pumped up and his aggressiveness may have backfired big time.  The only other candidate that could have pitched was Jacob DeGrom the 2014 Rookie of the Year and he is the right guy to start the CitiField home opener.  He deserved it.

Colon faced jams in the first and sixth inning and like a true pro never wavered.  Using his ability to paint the corners and pitch inside and mix in his slider to keep hitters off balance, Colon was able to limit damage despite the error by Murphy in the first. He went on to strike out Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman and I don’t know that Harvey who would’ve been pitching with so much juice could’ve navigated that first inning or DeGrom not experienced enough to handle the jitters that come with Opening Day.  I will keep trumpeting Colon’s presence in that clubhouse.  You saw his value when he worked his way around jams.  Don’t think that the other pitchers weren’t watching and studying and trying to soak in as much knowledge from this almost-42 year old pitcher who has seen it all.  He’s also seen another Opening Day win for the Mets- his first since 2006 when he went against, wait for it, 42 year old Jamie Moyer.

3. Lucas “The Duda”- Its one game so let’s not overthink this.  But the Mets were talking long term contract with Lucas Duda  which means his 30HR season last year is considered by Mets officials to be legitimate.  The one thing about the analytics folk, they give up their hand when they voluntarily try to lock up a player before they have to.  Yesterday Duda broke up the no-hitter in a way that shows that he may be able to improve upon last year’s season by becoming a better hitter.  Against a pitcher that was serving him fastballs, daring him to muscle one out Duda put a level headed swing on a pitch belt high in the sixth with two in scoring position after Ian Desmond’s error.  He may hit only 29 HR’s but his batting average and on-base percentage will most likely go up if he continues to embrace the approach of situational hitting.  His season is probably one of the most important and critical to the Mets success.

4. Curious lineup for the Mets- Where to begin?  How about David Wright hitting 2nd.  Or Juan Lagares, having spent the entire Spring Training, being told he was going to hit leadoff and getting valuable reps there batting sixth.  Or the talk of hitting the pitcher 8th yet putting Colon 9th.  The Mets made some very curious decisions that ultimately worked but messing with a player’s head like Lagares who you’re hoping will elevate his game is a dangerous game to play.

5. Jenry Mejia’s elbow tenderness- 

Speaking of which, one of the reasons cited for bringing up 8 relievers was perhaps the Mets, having been warned of Mejia’s tenderness by Mejia on Saturday, made the decision that in the event Mejia’s condition worsened they would be prepared.  But this is another short sighted decision by Mets brass, almost putting their chips in the middle of the table for the first series of the season- tipping their hand on how important this series was for them internally.  Why not put Mejia on the 15 day DL to start the season?  Why insist on having Mejia there if there’s even a hint that he’s not 100%.  There’s a reason why Rendon and Werth and Span, who were seen prior to the game hitting line drives, weren’t in yesterday’s game.  Just goes to show how organizations who truly are in it to contend operate as opposed to the wannabe’s.  Mejia flying up to get an MRI is just a procedural thing but having seen four pitchers go under the knife and get Tommy John- there’s a general sense of trepidation that for the second year in a row- the Mets will lose their Opening Day closer for the year ON Opening Day.

6. Bullpen solid-  Colon left after six great innings almost-matching $210M import Max Scherzer striking out 8 in 1.2 innings less of work.  Colon probably would’ve came out for the seventh had the Mets not been threatening in the top of the 7th when Travis D’Arnaud tripled to score Juan Lagares and the pitcher’s spot came up.  The Mets then turned to their bullpen who after years of putting scares and mixing general discomfort into the fan base and the team, turned into a legitimate strength.  Before we even knew about Mejia’s injury (it was only reported in the bottom of the 9th when Jerry Blevins came in to match up against Bryce Harper) the Mets were likely going to go Carlos Torres for the 7th, Jeurys Familia in the 8th and Mejia in the 9th.  During Spring Training while Harvey and DeGrom were dominating, and the offense was producing, the bullpen was anything but ready.  But again, let’s not read too much into one game. While we won’t know much about Mejia today, expect the Mets to use their bullpen extensively especially when you consider they want to limit Matt Harvey’s innings and know that Bartolo Colon is 41 years old and if they bring up one or two of Steven Matz or Noah Syndergaard- they will need a bullpen to perhaps come in on the 5th or 6th inning.  A nice touch for the Mets to get Buddy Carlisle his first save after pitching so well for them last year.

7. Travis D’Arnaud’s effect-  You will only appreciate D’Arnaud’s effect on the pitching staff if you are a big fan of pitch framing and the general analytics that go into it.  But that’s where D’Arnaud shines.  He is one of the best at locating pitches that are borderline strikes and moving them ever so slightly to occupy an umpire’s strike zone.  Especially yesterday when he works with Colon its a thing of beauty.  Colon knows where to throw it and D’Arnaud knows where to keep it for both the hitter to think twice and for the umpire to call a strike.

But when his offense wasn’t justifying his framing talent, and he was demoted to Triple A something else happened.  D’Arnaud became less the patient hitter and more the opportunist.  So many folks mistake the Mets approach as simply to get on base.  The Mets primary objective on offense is to attack pitches in the zone and wait those pitches out.  D’Arnaud did a great job yesterday in locating the belt high slider that when he got it, he made the Nationals pay and scored their third run, the very necessary insurance run to give the Mets a lead they never relinquished.  D’Arnaud’s projections all point to him contributing close to 20 HR’s which if that is the case, will allow the Mets to have lineup protection everywhere.

8. MLB’s rule changes taking effect.  By my count, only four players didn’t take at least one opportunity to step out of the batter’s box.  The Mets played a 2 hr 35min game which is pretty good if you’re hoping to keep the games shorter than 3 hours.  I’m all in favor of keeping 9 inning games shorter by forcing the player to stay in the batter’s box.  Some hitters like to wander the earth before settling in for each pitch which unnecessarily drags out at-bats.  No need.  Smart move Rob Manfred.

9. Future Met shortstop Ian Desmond and the disastrous sixth inning-   I often wonder how the Mets would be perceived heading into the season if they had pulled off the rumored trade for Ian Desmond involving the Tampa Bay Rays that they were going to pull the trigger on.  Consider yesterday as a reminder why you hesitate.  The contract year Ian Desmond’s error in the 7th (a bounced throw to first time 1b Ryan Zimmerman which he couldn’t scoop up) was not like the boneheaded mistake he made in the 6th which ultimately lost the game for the Nats.  Desmond raced over to shallow right field and called off Dan Uggla who would’ve presumably made the play had he not been called off in the last second by Desmond who gave up on it in the last second.  Before that Scherzer was cruising and throwing a no-hitter and was about to get out of the inning had they made that routine play.  After that Duda hit a game deciding single driving in two giving the Mets the lead.  That play was the turning point of the game.  It kept Scherzer in one batter too long in the sixth and Lucas “The Duda” made them pay with a bases clearing single and the Mets went on to win.  This is not the first time Desmond has lost concentration or made a boneheaded mistake.  But you will take all of that when you consider that he’s one of the few shortstops that can both hit and hit for power if need be as evidenced by his three consecutive years of hitting 20+ HR’s.  He has the highest home run total of shortstops in the last three years, a position where if you have a guy with power you are ahead of the curve.  In fact, he has the three best home run totals since 2012 which is ultimately why he figures he can fetch  more than the reported $107M the Nationals offered over 7 years.  The fact is, the Nations have some tough decisions to make and with the Mets uncertain over Flores’ future at short, they may be in the market for a shortstop and may spend money on Desmond IF they contend this year and the dollars make sense.  Remember, while the Mets may have a New York zip code, they are still making decisions like a ball club mindful of limited resources with which to work with.  I wonder if some of the mistakes Desmond had weren’t of his own doing- trying too hard to make a positive impression on future employers.

10. Look ahead- Tomorrow’s game features an excellent pitching matchup as the defending NL Rookie of the Year Jacob DeGrom faces up against the contract year Jordan Zimmerman.  DeGrom has looked excellent all spring and has again been relegated to second status in a city caught up in Harvey-mania.  I admit that I haven’t given DeGrom his just due, but many within the Mets organization and in the press that cover him feel DeGrom is on the path to greatness as well having been a converted shortstop only five years ago and now the reigning NL Rookie of the Year.  None of this is lost on DeGrom, as he displays a maturity that tells you that he isn’t caught up or content on just the rookie of the year nod.  He went from unknown to mainstay in this vaunted rotation- another arm that is making the Mets stable of young pitching that much greater.  The contract year Jordan Zimmerman is another underrated pitcher overshadowed by a flame throwing teammate of his own.  He is of course entering the final year of his contract and many wonder about what Max Scherzer’s commitment means to Zimmerman’s future and how that decision will relate to Stephen Strassburg’s future in a Nationals uniform.  Keeping all three may be too difficult but they have an old owner desperate for a world series and he may be willing to spend, but keeping those two and contract year Ian Desmond may prove difficult.  Zimmerman’s first start of the season will be one of hopefully for their sake a 30 part tryout for a big contract.  Don’t think homegrown players didn’t sit up and take notice of Scherzer’s contract.  They will want similar deals.  Its interesting given the expectations surrounding this team whether it won’t prove to be a distraction all summer long.

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August 3, 2014 · 3:06 pm

Lessons learned: MLB Trade Deadline 2014

Yesterday, baseball went on the kind of run that everyone in Las Vegas hopes to go on.  When the morning began those of us unfortunate enough to be tied to our Twitter accounts were awakened by Alex Speier’s report that Jon Lester had been traded to the Oakland A’s.  A moment passed before I read the next tweet which read “…for Yoenis Cespedes”.  It was the kind of swift kick in the butt that the trade deadline needed.

What followed over the next 7 hours were teams responding, teams waving the white flag, teams staying pat and teams deciding that they weren’t going to dip their toe in these crazy waters.

We will get to the New York teams in a minute.  But there’s much to learn about the changing landscape these days when Detroit and Oakland are the two teams waging war and raising armies in the North and the South, shooting out warning shots undoubtedly in preparation for their matchup in the ALCS.  After the Lester trade was finalized, I imagine Detroit CEO, GM and overlord of the car making province Dave Dombrowski reading the report on one of his sports apps and looking up at his team and muttering some phrase equivalent to “let’s get busy boys.”

The Tigers then made a huge trade in a three team swap to pick up the ace that had a reported 8.9% chance of being traded.  The Tigers picked up their Scherzer insurance.  The Mariners got an everyday center fielder.  The Rays got their bundle of team controlled prospects that will undoubtedly lead them on their second run.  Much of the surprise is somehow on the Rays side.  Most thinkers of baseball believe they could’ve received an equivalent trade in the offseason.  Why settle now in the midst of a race the Rays are quickly getting themselves back into?

One can never seem to doubt Andrew Friedman, but looking at the landscape this move can only lead one to believe that he saw his team incapable of sustaining such a run over the month of August and September and decided to cash out now.  But did they cash out with the biggest hand they could’ve had?  Who knows?  Drew Smyly has produced the best numbers of his career.  Nick Franklin has been shuttled between Triple A and the major leagues but has potential.  A most dangerous adjective that can lure GM’s into a trap.  Then there’s Willy Adames, the SS who is 18 years old and has shown an advanced bat for his age.  Those three shouldn’t net a David Price but this is the reality in which the Tampa front office operates in.  They must always keep an eye to four years from now while maintaining what they have today.  In a market that is not advantageous and doesn’t offer the revenue stream to change their thinking, they must always look ahead rather than gaze at the now.

But not Billy Beane.  Ol Billy decided when he traded away his best prospect to land two starters from the Cubs that this would NOT be the year that he stands pat and looks ahead.  This year he was putting his chips to the middle of the table.  Ultimately these moves will be judged by the end result in October but one can only applaud Billy as he makes his run at that championship he has so cleverly tried to get by selling his home made lemonade in his stand while he competes with the big boys in all things beverage.  By trading Addison Russell his star SS, he made an announcement to the world that he was going for it.  When he traded Jon Lester for home run darling Yoenis Cespedes he made sure to remind us that he was dead serious about his aspirations.  Lester represents about as sure a thing in the playoffs as you can get.  A hired gun bought for a single reason: to pitch those games that the Oakland A’s have never been able to win.  The Game 5’s and Game 7’s that Oakland has had to rely upon lesser talented players.  Now they have a bona fide tried and true ace that has been there and done that.  Again, his trades will ultimately be looked at through the prism of October results, but we should all applaud Billy the kid for deciding to take out the twin guns and fire away.

Of course if you’re Dave Dombrowski and you have a pitcher who decided to reject a 6 year $144 million deal the writing is in the stars.  When Max Scherzer decided to say no to an extension offer, the wheels had to start turning for GM Dave Dombrowski.  He has an aging owner who wants to win now and is willing to spend money but doesn’t have the endless pockets the Yankees do and at some point you get the sense that with each start, Scherzer is pricing himself into a different stratosphere.  Don’t take for granted Mike Illitch’s will to spend to keep a championship capable roster.  But with David Price in tow, they can weather Scherzer’s departure.  But this is also about  Rick Porcello’s advancement as a pitcher.  The Tigers bet on Porcello getting better when they dealt Doug Fister to the Nationals.  Now that his stats have all shown a major jump, one has to wonder if Detroit looks at those stats as an unsustainable leap from a pitcher who doesn’t project as a front line starter.  For me, this is also a Rick Porcello insurance move.  In case these stats are unsustainable, they have enough frontline starting pitching to help Porcello toil away and figure things out.  The Tigers have been stubborn about his development and it seems as though they will see this to the absolute end before they give up on him.

The Red Sox are an interesting case.  They sent away Jon Lester and John Lackey in separate deals that netted them serviceable major league players.  So it wasn’t a total destroy and rebuild like in 2012, but it bears a striking resemblance.  When the Red Sox traded away all their horrible contracts to the Dodgers they took advantage of a team with new ownership desperate to make a splash.  Now, there are no bad contracts, but a ton of young players the Sox brass are hoping will develop enough to become a core that can be competitive at a decent price while having the financial flexibility to add star players to support them.  I can’t be totally sure that the two moves were with an eye toward the future or making sure to have pieces in 2015.  The A’s were smart to trade Cespedes, a star borne out of the Cuban craze that has produced two legit superstars in Yasiel Puig and Jose Abreu.  Cespedes, if you will remember had the amazing scouting tape that made him a cross between Babe Ruth, Joe Dimaggio and Ken Griffey Jr.  But he hasn’t had the kind of career that Puig and Abreu have.  Aside from the two home run derby titles and the occasional amazing display of the gun from the outfield, Cespedes has been a clean up hitter in name only.  Yes, he has a year left on his contract, but if the Sox catch lightning in a  bottle, they have inserted themselves into the Cuban pipeline of talent by bringing in one of their better prospects.  We won’t get a good idea of where the Sox’s thinking is until the offseason.  If they make a run at Lester, who can be a free agent and is well liked by both Boston’s fan base and by the ownership group, this will be a huge win for the Sox.  But based on earlier negotiations, the Sox have a price in mind for their staff ace and won’t go beyond that number.

The NL East all made incremental moves with one team making the most interesting one.  I’ve always been jealous of how ruthlessly efficient the Miami front office is.  Historically, they haven’t mastered sustained success, rather banking on their scouting and farm development to give them a good nucleus and then building through some major splashes, much the way they attempted to do so in 2012.  Then as soon as they win, they get out blaming a public that doesn’t support the team to give them revenue streams to spend.  But when Miami sent a few well thought of prospects for Jared Cosart, it was the kind of low level go for it move with a look towards the future for both teams operating with a time frame in mind.  Cosart is a former number one pick and no matter what the circumstances are that led to his trade from the Astros, its always a good bet to trade for talent.  Changing his surroundings may allow Cosart to start over and reach his potential.  If they manage to tap into Cosart’s potential, they could have added another frontline starter to a rotation that includes Jose Fernandez.  In a vacuum let’s presume that when Fernandez comes back next year, he will need a majority of the season to get back into the form we saw from him last year.  Cosart will enter a rotation with Henderson Alvarez and Nathan Eovaldi, gives them enough young talent to slowly build the same way they built their championship teams.  This is the kind of move that won’t immediately pay dividends but ultimately is the kind of forward thinking move that sets the table for a major run in a year or two.  Smart.

So what if anything can the local teams learn from all of these moves?  The Mets and the Yankees operate in two different tax brackets.  The Yankees, did the smart thing at the trade deadline.  Rather than sacrifice their top prospects, they dealt from their endless welt of cash.  Nowadays, prospects are the currency of choice for GM’s, but that’s a matter of circumstance.  It just so happens that the Yankees can and can’t be begrudged for operating from that advantage.  So rather than make earth shattering moves which GM Brian Cashman is expected to always do, they made incremental moves to add depth.  If the A’s taught us anything its that having depth at IF and OF can always be a plus.  Having multiple options for a roster that is riddled with older players who are getting injured way too often, how is adding Martin Prado, Chase Headley, Chris Capuano, Jeff Francis,  Stephen Drew, David Huff, and Brandon McCarthy for cash, Vidal Nuno, C Peter O’Brien, Yangervis Solarte, Rafael DePaula, Kelly Johnson and a player to be named later.  To recap, they got a guy who was asking for $15M a year this offseason, a former Gold Glover, a player who was the centerpiece of the Justin Upton trade, for a guy they were going to option, a guy who’s hot start they parlayed into someone useful and a bunch of other pieces that were ultimately expendable.   That’s called making the most of what you have and more importantly recognizing what you don’t have.  They have enough talent, that once healthy, they know they can piece together a run.

But the Yankees also operate in a changing landscape.  There aren’t enough legit superstars in mid prime entering the free agent market that the Yankees can devour like they used to.  Teams are starting to be smarter about the Super-2 status and convincing prospects with potential to give up one or two years of their free agency in exchange for financial security.  Thus, free agents are entering free agency on the opposite side of 30.  Not only that, the Yankees aren’t the automatic suitors for the in their prime stars, anymore like they used to be.  The Dodgers with their new ownership group, the Tigers with an owner who’s advanced in both age and desperation to win a title, the Angels with a threatened Artie Moreno, and of course the Boston Red Sox.

Playing in New York comes with its advantages and disadvantages.  Cashman operates from the must do something mandate where its not just about the number of moves but the number of moves that make a splash.  So every offseason the Yankees will be linked with the biggest free agents and during the trade deadline the best trade chips are also somehow linked despite the Yankees not having the treasure trove of prospects with which to deal from.  The Yankees will never be in rebuilding mode.  Not with a new stadium that needs to be paid for.  Not when the team seems to be entering a deep decline with the final member of the Core Four retiring.  If anything this calls for an even more aggressive show of force by the Yankee front office.  A moment to puff out the chest and remind everybody who the Yankees are.  So naturally for those fans who looked at the Yankees tenuous position and thought they would just pack their bags and call it a season, just don’t know how the machine works.  It never stops. Or rests.  It continues manufacturing a relentless mentality to chase what may be out of their grasp.

The Mets however, have had to operate from a different point of view.  Though they call New York home as well.  Though they have a brand new ball park as well.  They compete with the monolith Yankees and against a reality they would rather not admit to the public because of what the feared reaction from the public is.  However, the Mets have always made the mistake that the public won’t understand: they’ve been with you this long stupid, they will continue to ride with you through this crap too.  With their finances a big question mark to everyone but the Wilpons’ accountants, the Mets have cut costs, and payroll since 2006, their last playoff run, to sit comfortably in the middle of the pack; a weird place for any team from NY to be in.  The Mets do however have something the Yankees don’t: young, high end, cost controlled pitching.  The Mets could have made a move to send a signal to the landscape that they were ready to overtake the Yankees but one thing is clear: they aren’t ready.  Not that they couldn’t make a run to the postseason or the 90 win goal GM Sandy Alderson set.  But the Mets also didn’t make a panic trade to make a run that nobody thinks is a guarantee.  What the Mets can take away from this deadline from the other teams is this: that they aren’t ready to trade for a David Price or Jon Lester.  But they are also close enough to be realistic.  This may not be the year, but they are close to making the kind of moves that send shockwaves throughout baseball and announce themselves as legit contenders.

 

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