Bill Simmons of Grantland.com is bringing you Day 1 of a 12 day series in which he covers the frantic NBA Free Agent Experience and makes the simple yet honest point: Even though the lockout was meant to stop dumb contracts, we’re about to get even MORE dumb contracts in the coming days. Gentlemen, start your paychecks. Speaking of which, Vishnu Parasuraman of Grantland explains the new deal in a comprehensive yet simple way. Ok fine, so I got an Indian sports writer in there. SUE ME!
I’m a huge Bill Simmons fan so you’ll be seeing alot of his posts linked for sure. He’s a huge basketball junkie thus his opus titled the Book of Basketball which went through his thoughts and long held beliefs of the game so you knew he would have something for basketball junkies as the NBA was coming out of the lockout. His point? the deal could’ve been struck five months ago but players held stubbornly and owners were too dick headed to admit their faults. Now, we have a 66 game season in which the league and its elder statesmen will be subjected to AT LEAST one back to back to back set of games. NBA fans won’t care but remember that teams with older players will be rested more to survive the grind. An interesting point that Simmons made was that this proved how vital the NBA views its slate of games on Christmas Day. Its their Thanksgiving. They didn’t want to lose it and couldn’t afford to do so and Simmons argued that it made sense and the NBA should consider making some cosmetic changes to their schedule in order to not get in the way of football and therefore step on their own toes. Not many people pay attention to basketball on Sundays while the NFL is still pumping out its product. And now with the NFL set to have a Thursday game every week and then some Saturday games starting on Christmas eve, you can bet that the NBA will be keeping a close watch on games.
By the way, here’s the updated schedule of games that will kick off the NBA season:
Boston AT New York (Rondo vs. CP3?), Miami AT Dallas (the banner will be unveiled but the rings apparently won’t be given out), Chicago AT Los Angeles (Who’s going to be the wingman for Derrick Rose this year?), Orlando AT OKC and Clippers AT Golden State. Got all that? That’s TNT for Knicks Celts followed by ABC for the next two games with the NBA Finals rematch and Kobe vs. MVP Derrick Rose and finally ESPN gets the last two games. When’s the last time the NBA went out of its way to put the Clippers in a marquee NBA television night? Ahh, the power of Blake.
I would make the argument that the NFL will have a tough slate to take away from the NBA but it appears Roger Goodell has paved the streets clean of NFL football, even disposing of Jay Cutler to make the Sunday night game with the Packers and Bears less interesting unless Caleb Hanie’s body gets possessed by a better QB. Maybe he needs to bring the stache back?
Bill Madden of the New York Daily News is breaking down the wishlist and rumor mill stuff of the Winter Meetings. For those that don’t know, this is where all the action happens and deals get done. Oh, and so does Ken Davidoff of Newsday and Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes that the Yankees are going to be quiet for once and that’s because they are trying to cut costs. Meanwhile here is Jon Heyman of SI (and soon to be CBS Sports) and Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports gives us the skinny on Yu Darvish the sought after pitcher from the Nippon Ham club in Japan.
The Winter Meetings are interesting because fans are under the impression that this is MLB’s way of getting all 30 GM’s and player agents under one roof to make deals and sign contracts with players but its not. Its a convention for GM’s, kind of like one of those training seminars your company sends you to and oh by the way every other power broker in the sport ends up in the same hotel (what are the odds?) and winds up swinging deals. There’s only enough Public Safety Seminars one can stomach apparently. Blackberries will be used and this is the week that cell phone companies see a spike in calls made and received from certain phone lines. Either way, plenty of rumors to get to.
The Sherman article interests me because this is not the first time we’ve heard that the Yankees are tightening up their belts. They ALWAYS say that and like Sherman points out seemingly always spend more and shrug it off because they can. The Yankees are being more judicious with how they spend their money and they are right, CJ Wilson is NOT worth a major contract. He’s a third starter in my opinion and NOT a number one. His cost has been inflated because there’s no other marquee pitching talent available unless the Mariners somehow decide to put King Felix on the block but that’s a long shot especially if the rumors are true and they are going to make a run at Prince Fielder. Jon Danks could be an interesting option seeing as how Kenny Williams has all but put the Rebuilding notice on his White Sox club and may part ways with their best pitcher to start collecting young assets. The Yankees won’t trade their Killer B”s for anyone outside of Felix in my opinion. They still could dangle Jesus Montero and get a pretty good return so the Yankees always have that. We’ll see how it goes.
As for the Mets, I’ve always been in the trade David Wright Camp. If the Mets were really interested in rebuilding and trying to maintain a level or status of a long term winner, they would look to trade Wright and I think it would be mandatory should Jose Reyes leave for another team. One team he may be leaving for are the Miami Marlins who are now facing charges from the SEC about possible violations in how they got their majority-taxpayer-funded brand new ballpark. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes that free agents looking at Miami may be scared off by the investigation which has real legs and could possibly end up costing the Marlins a lot. This is part of a bigger problem that baseball is facing as this will only make the SEC open every single team’s books about how they are getting local governments to raise money via taxpayers to fund these new stadiums. Baseball is largely guilty of strong arming these local branches on a yearly basis that some in the industry view it as an “about time” investigation.
Back to the Metropolitans. Sandy Alderson vows that the Mets will be fun to watch and reportedly have a gentleman’s agreement with them and Reyes where Reyes will bring back the final offers to the Mets and the Mets will either allow Reyes to walk or the Mets will match. Of course that doesn’t mean Jose will take the first genuinely intriguing offer the Mets have. He will most certainly take it back to other teams and given the state of the Miami Marlins with this pending investigation, Reyes may think twice about taking a multi-year deal to stay there. The Marlins are willing to give Reyes a 6 year deal, something the Mets are rightfully reluctant to do.
I get Alderson’s hesitation with Reyes. No one doubts the skill, but the injury history gives prospective employers pause and makes Reyes’ suitors that much smaller. Marlins have been effectively ambitious this offseason finally inking a player with some star power to let baseball know they are serious, in Heath Bell who was given a 3 year deal worth $27 million which is a lot for a 34 year old closer. That gives everyone but the Mets an effective end of game solution. The Braves have Craig Kimbrel who won the Rookie of the Year award in the NL. The Phillies signed Papelbon. The Nationals have young Drew Storen ready to go. So the Mets are looking to add a prominent closer themselves without breaking the bank given their other litany of needs which begs the question: if you’re not going to go after Reyes, why not turn your attention elsewhere and spend that 16-20 million you had slotted for Jose on the relief market and mid level starter market?
The interest in Reyes is real but the Mets have two budgets for the upcoming season: one that HAS Reyes on board and another that doesn’t have Reyes on board. The on that has Reyes on board ranges from $100-110 million and one can only figure that the one that doesn’t include Reyes is somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million cheaper. So the Mets won’t just spend the money to spend it and Alderson is cautiously spending the money because let’s face it, without Reyes or any kind of prominent free agent signing, the Mets will have a much lower draw at CitiField effectively eliminating any chance of turning a profit for the year.
Unless the Mets miraculously turn competitive. Which isn’t impossible but highly improbable given the state of the other teams in the division and the current state of the Mets.
My prediction on Reyes? He resigns with the Mets for 5 years and $95 million with a 6th year option based on games played over the final two guaranteed years. Most fans have this idea that the Mets won’t spend but I don’t think the Wilpons are that frugal and that stupid. They are stupid but not cheap. They will spend and they know the ramifications of trying to field a Reyes-less team in 2012 to their bottom line. Alderson and Co. know the skill set of Reyes and what he means to the franchise. The fan base is almost unanimous that they want him back. But at an effective price. I think the fanbase more is about the rebuilding process and know that any exorbitant price tag given the state of the franchise’s finances would be crippling to any long term repairs the Mets hope to do. Let’s be honest, we don’t know how much the bill will be on the Madoff case but reports indicate that it won’t be as high as one wished thought. Either way, the Mets will need all available space to sign their superstars if it is indeed their wish. Let’s say Reyes leaves, David Wright will most certainly be discussed and presented as a carrot for any team to make deals but given his status being lowered, they won’t get back what they hope. I think the Mets wait till the trade deadline so that with the new changes to CitiField can help build back up Wright’s status and then trade him.
Though, in either scenario, I think the Mets should trade Wright. Not only for the Mets, but for Wright. I admit he’s a very good player but he’s NOT a superstar and the Mets have treated him as such while other teams have looked at his last three years and seen a lower tier player. Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals is a better defensive AND offensive player and has been for the last two years at the very least.
Here’s hoping that Reyes decides to take a hometown discount.
Now, on to Sunday’s picks:
BILLS (-2) over Titans- This is pretty much must win territory for Buffalo. The Bills, now looking at their schedule again with clarity provided for us by the last few weeks of action, face a pretty tough schedule. Where once the Chargers and Patriots were looking like the toughest tests on the schedule, the Chargers look like they have given up on the season and Norv Turner, and the Patriots may basically be resting their starters by Week 17 . The Dolphins are competitive and nobody’s patsies and the Broncos are Tebow’s Team and look virtually unbeatable.
BEARS (-7) over Chiefs- I’m not saying that this is a slam dunk. The Chiefs CAN play as evidenced by their near upset win over the Steelers who looked old on Sunday night. But unless Caleb Hanie plays mistake free football the Bears season is effectively over. Which brings me to the QB carousel that took place this week and left one very famous name without a seat. Donovan McNabb is no longer an employed member of the NFL. Its a sad ending to a very good career which had its ups and downs. Mostly, I think he benefited just as much as he faltered by playing in a demanding market like Philly. McNabb has such thick skin that after being released by the Vikings citing his lack of a work ethic and weight gain, he was marketing himself as a STARTER for any franchise who wanted him. A STARTER. This is a guy who was traded IN DIVISION by the coach who constantly made excuses for him and was shown the door by an organization so messed up and screwed up in the head like the Redskins that he was replaced early in the season by a rookie who nobody expected to sniff the Metrodome turf. I couldn’t believe how quickly he fell out of grace and now out of touch with his own ability. McNabb’s biggest liability at this point is what made him famous in Philly: his unquestioning belief in himself. As much as TO loves him some me, McNabb really loves him some me and not being picked up on waivers and TO’s inability to get anyone to even bother showing up for a private workout is fitting for two players who once were considered elite at their position yet many had lingering questions about their make up.
Oakland (+2) over DOLPHINS- I think this game is going to be fantastic. No lies. I have to admit that trading two number one picks for Carson Palmer in my mind STILL isn’t a defensible trade but he’s been paying off these last few weeks and IF and WHEN Run DMC joins the fold the Raiders could end up being a very dangerous team moving forward. Teams are now beginning to respect the pass which is opening up lanes for their rushing attack. Michael Bush is lining up a very nice pay day for him next year.
Bengals (+6.5) over STEELERS- How old did the Steelers look as compared to the hyped up KC Chiefs who field one of the youngest teams in the league? Pitt’s moxie and veteran know how to pull out the W helped them but the Bengals are much more talented and with a full game from AJ Green should easily beat the Steelers IN Pittsburgh.
Ravens (-7) over BROWNS- Classic let down game for the Ravens considering their season. The one remaining question they have left to answer is if they can maintain their level no matter the competition. That question must be answered with a win today. MUST.
Jets (-3) over REDSKINS- This is closer than many people think but I see a HUGE win for the Jets. I mean a dominating performance. I smell it coming.
Falcons (-1.5) over TEXANS- Would’ve been a good game had even Matt Leinart played. But some people love TJ Yates and believe he will be their starting QB moving forward and some are even giving him a small chance at Tom Bradying the Texans this year to a Super Bowl. Hold your horses. The defense has playmakers and the offense getting Andre Johnson back is a huge plus but let’s hold your horses and let them play today’s game and then we’ll fast lane them into the Super Bowl.
Bucs (-2) over PANTHERS- Cam needs a strong finish to the season to secure that once locked up Offensive Rookie of the Year award he had giftwrapped back in September. Last week was a good start in beating a Colts team he HAD to beat. But looking at his stats they tell you something. Since throwing for 422, 432 and 374 in three out of his first four games in the NFL, Cam doesn’t have a single 300 yard passing game since and only thrown north of 250 three times only one resulting in a win. Its when he’s thrown for less than 220 (158 and 208) when he’s won so there’s that to consider for Ron Rivera and co as they move forward with Cam’s progression. I wish ONCE in a team’s life that they unleashed a QB like the Falcons did Michael Vick and Eagles did until he got injured. He puts not only defenses in such a bad way, but also referees who have problems knowing when to call late hit penalties and can sometimes get confused and make a huge call that can tilt the game in the team’s favor. Cam has one thing going for him that Vick never had: he’s built like a tank. Vick is injury prone not because of his style but because he’s built like a receiver. Not Desean Jackson skinny but enough where one good pop as he’s going full speed can really hurt him. Cam loves contact and can bring the lumber as grown folk would say. If the Carolina offensive coaches can devise a way to have Cam throw 20-25 times and run 8-12 times and then run the football with their two headed beast at running back HOW is that a bad thing? Some of you will say well Swith, isn’t that what they are doing already? Yes. But their defense doesn’t stop anyone. I’m saying, don’t start making Cam chuck the ball. Stick to the plan. Stubbornly if you have to. In his first year of development you have to let Cam know that the game plan that the coaches have set up is the right way to go and should NEVER be abandoned. Teams that have trust and faith in their coaching staff to put them in the right place always wind up winning games. Faith and patience go a long way in the NFL. Look at the Super Bowl run the Giants made in 2007 and then their first 11 games of 2008. They stubbornly stayed with the running game even when teams were beating them and they always won because they forcefully displayed their will against their opponents. That’s what winning teams do: impose their wills on other teams.
PATRIOTS (-20) over Colts- Two more reasons that Peyton Manning should get some MVP consideration this year: this outrageous line and the fact that NBC chucked this game so far out of its rotation as quickly as it could because Peyton wasn’t playing that they almost tripped over themselves getting to the league office to try and get Giants/Packers (Fox protected it) or Lions and Saints which will now be flexed into Sunday Night. By the way, here’s a theory for all you conspiracy nuts: Have you noticed the crappy schedule ESPN got this year for their Monday Night Package? It appears ex- ESPN chief was in charge of not only giving NBC its incredibly lucrative flex scheduling deal but also giving ESPN its latest which is not to say that its payback for his fall, but let’s just say its kind of dicey the way it all went down.
SAINTS (-9) over Lions- Speaking of which, the Saints looked unstoppable on Monday night but that’s because the Giants defense were looking fifty different directions and never knew where to line up or where to go. They were a hot mess the whole evening and trust me, the Saints didn’t do them any favors with the way they ran up the score. That last touchdown was meant to send a message and let’s be honest, anyone who is crying about how disgraceful and unsportsmanlike it was needs to chill. If you can’t STOP a team from scoring then get somebody who can. The Saints were right to never take the foot off the pedal. That mentality will be the ONLY thing that helps them beat the Packers if and when they meet again down the road in the playoffs.
As it relates to the Lions and mainly Ndamukong Suh. Look, he had a dirty play which reminded NFL fans of his earlier shady plays. Then his post game press conference was NOT an apology I don’t care WHAT he says. Does he need counseling? No. He lets his emotions show during games which is a good thing. BUT, this young man’s recent car crash shows that there is a very dizzying pattern that seems to be playing out. The Lions need someone to talk to him. They were IN that game against the Packers until Suh stepped on that Packer line man and then the Pack ran away with that game. They need Suh long term to be the rock and the NFL wants Suh to be a prominent wheel in its promotional cog. There’s a lot at stake and the NFL hopes that the Lions will take care of it.
Also is Roger Goodell trying to get a consulting job on the side? First he advises Michael Vick where to go and now he advises Suh to appeal? Even though his appeal magically met earlier in the week and he lost it making him ineligible to play against the Saints after some furor broke out about the commissioner’s shady appeal for Suh to do so. Hmmm. You would think his 10 million salary would be enough, no?
Broncos (-1) over VIKINGS- This game is a lot closer now that Von Miller is a game time decision. With no AP though, I can’t give the Vikes an edge here and no matter what, you can’t go against Tebow right?
49ers (-13) over Rams- Finally, a team that plays consistently across the board. I know they will show up against the Rams who have been playing SLIGHTLY better these last few weeks.
Cowboys (-4.5) over CARDS- You know that Patrick Peterson touchdown is coming. You can feel it like I can, can’t you?
Packers (-6) over GIANTS- IF the team that wore the Giants uniforms the last two weeks against Philly and the Saints show up, forget about this game and the season. Those last two Cowboy games are for naught. IF the Giants show some fight, and this is basically Custer’s last stand here for the G-Men, then they have a shot. They certainly have the offense, with Bradshaw back, to score points.
Chargers (-3) over JAGUARS- Barely.
Enjoy Week 13!
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