October 17, 2014 · 11:53 pm
With the NBA season on the horizon I figured I would take a stab at the foolish exercise of making 10 bold predictions rooted in reality as I could. This is part I of the NBA season preview. These are ten reasonably based yet bold predictions I’m guessing will come to pass after staring at that crystal ball I have:
1. The Celtics won’t trade Rondo, but will trade Jeff Green- I’m working without any knowledge of how the television deal will affect the salary cap moving forward but I expect an announcement will come midseason. The trade deadline will either be super busy with teams absorbing big salaries from teams trying to add cap space for the future, or teams hoping to gather assets to make a bigger trade down the line. In theory, most teams could use a Rondo. When healthy and motivated, he can hold his own with the best the league has to offer and is NOT afraid of the spotlight. You can thank Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen for ultimately helping him flourish. However its clear that his time in Boston is about to come to an end. He may go to New York or go to Sacramento, or even Houston who would love to add Rondo as their third star, but the question remains who will bite the bullet to trade for such a mercurial spirit Rondo? Boston’s asking price for the point guard is pretty high and teams have shied from giving up future number ones without any assurances Rondo would re-sign with them.
Green on the other hand, is owed $9.2M this season and next. His salary would definitely make a team bite on an expensive asking price and I think the Celtics could get back more. When Green is on, he’s a force that can play big and constantly attacks the rim. The Cavs are all in for the next few seasons so trading away future first round picks will be nothing for them. I think the team that makes the most sense for Green in the East would be Atlanta as Al Horford insurance and another quality big to help space out for Budenholzer’s scheme to have every person on the court be a threat from deep. Atlanta perpetually maintains flexibility and they have picks to throw at Boston too.
2. Dwight Howard will re-emerge as an MVP candidate- Howard has gone from superstar center, perennial defensive player of the year candidate, and Top 3 player to, not even mentioned at all in these kind of discussions. The popular name to throw into MVP discussions is Anthony Davis, the soon to be best player in the league in 3-4 seasons. But I think Dwight is poised to have a breakout season in his second year in Houston. For the first time in three seasons, he’s not exploring ways to skip town or avoid Kobe’s death stare or playing on a bad back. Howard’s entering age 29 where he should be at the peak of his powers and playing on a team that will likely boast at least two to three players at a time that shoot 35% or better from beyond the arc. That was the kind of roster he played with in Orlando. When Dwight is playing regular minutes without any distractions, he’s a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. I’m betting on Dwight to have a big year.
3. The Indiana Pacers will NOT make the playoffs and subsequently will trade David West- Technically this is TWO bold predictions for the price of one. Consider yourselves lucky. The Pacers lost their best offensive threat when Paul George went down in a scrimmage for Team USA and Lance Stephenson took his services to Charlotte to play for Michael Jordan. My guess is that when Paul George starts practicing with the team, he won’t recognize 40% of the roster. The fact is, the Pacers are still a very solid defensive unit but I think Larry Bird, Kevin Pritchard and co know that the best way to make this right is to start over. HIbbert will be off the books after 2016 and chances of him signing a long term deal for big money are slim; the Pacers just aren’t built that way. They have enough smart people to know that they don’t stand a chance this year with the roster as constructed. Wanna know how I know? They basically gave the keys to the offense to Rodney Stuckey. West is their best trade asset and every playoff team will be angling to get him. The Pacers will likely take a bad contract back if they can recoup a decent draft pick. A team like the Suns, with extra first rounders may make a play here if they are in contention. When he initially signed with Indiana, he was coming off a torn ACL- and he’s mostly answered his injury concerns with solid play over the last few seasons as the heart, soul and muscle of an Indiana team that for most parts of last season looked like the best team in the East and a top 4 squad. But if Indiana is willing to take a lesser deal, he could shift the balance in either division.
4. The Top 4 in the East will be Cleveland, Chicago, Washington and Toronto- in that order. I had a hard time picking between Washington and Charlotte. Bradley Beal is set to miss the first month of the season at the least after breaking his wrist, and I’m STILL picking the Bullets to win the division. I don’t trust Toronto’s young guns to take a step forward and I don’t expect them to make a crazy trade, even with Masai at the helm. Cleveland, and Chicago will be the toast of the Eastern Conference and my hunch here is that Chicago will limit Derrick Rose’s minutes. Knowing Thibs that means someone else will feel the whip and I”m guessing its Jimmy Butler. Lance Stephenson vaults Charlotte into serious consideration for one of the top 4 spots in the East but that transition will take some time and losing Josh McRoberts will hurt. I think Miami is a lock to make the playoffs as well. That’s six spots with the remaining two to be fought between Brooklyn, the Knicks, Atlanta, and the Pistons. If I had to pick two today, I think the two New York teams round out the eight but don’t sleep on Stan Van Gundy and the Pistons, and I could be totally wrong on the Pacers.
5. Kobe will be top 10 in scoring this season- Have you seen the Laker roster? Have you heard that ESPN ranked him as the 40th best player in the NBA? Shockingly Kobe took neither thing very well and there’s little doubt that Kobe will shoot himself into some conversation. Whether its the analytics folks talking down to Kobe as a black hole of efficiency or the Kobe fanatics flooding ESPN’s comments sections with not so polite things to say about ESPN’s columnists and their lack of basketball wisdom, trust and believe that Kobe will shoot through the season with no remorse. I want to see Byron Scott try and make a power move on Kobe and try to bench him for not making the extra pass to Jeremy Lin in the corner. I want to see it. Even if it happens, I won’t believe it.
6. The Knicks will trade Iman Shumpert- I don’t think this is a crazy bold prediction but one that will surely make Knicks fans upset. Look, I like Shump. I think with his physical gifts, he can grow into a very good sixth man and defensive stopper but he is also an asset. He and Hardaway are the two guys that everyone asks for with the Knicks but I believe the Knicks love Hardaway’s offense more than they love Shump’s defense. In the end, he will be the one traded and it may be to a Western conference team looking for a guy to guard the wings in the West and who knows what Uncle Phil will look for when it comes to trade time. I do know that if the Knicks trade anyone Shump is going in the deal and that includes an Amar’e or Bargnani trade that would rid the team of an expiring contract which recently hadn’t been something teams were willing to do but now would be the quickest way to free up the most amount of money in anticipation of the Summer of 2016.
7. The top four in the West will be the Spurs, Clippers, the Warriors, and the Thunder- in that order. I like the rivalry brewing between the Clippers and the Warriors and I think that battle will come down to the final three weeks. Losing Kevin Durant for at least a month and a half will slow the Thunder down in that race and the Spurs know how to get to 55 wins in their sleep. Its the Warriors I’m extremely high on who I think will make a play to be one of the best teams in the entire league. I think Steve Kerr is a bright coach and he comes into a great situation with a loaded team. The one thing that worries me about them is when they go through an extended slump or an injury and then the Kevin Love what-if scenarios start playing out in post game questions. This is a team full of young guys with a rookie head coach. Expectations will be high for a young head coach and as easy as it is to talk about doing the right thing, its another thing to coach it. Let’s see what happens.
8. Four head coaches will be fired this season; and one of them in season- My guess on the coach who will see the ax midseason? Mike Malone. Which is fascinating because Vivek Ranadive the majority owner of the Kings knows him from his time as a part owner of the Golden State Warriors and took him to Sacramento. But Ranadive hired him before hiring a GM which can make for an uneasy co-existence. Add to that the quote recently by the owner that the “team will be judged by wins and losses,” and you can already see that the stage is being set. One can only wonder how much time will be given to coaches to make their mark here but it won’t be long. The other three? I think Jacques Vaughn in Orlando will get the heave ho. I also see Brian Shaw getting the early ax as he has two more guaranteed years remaining and in a tricky ownership situation Mike Budenholzer getting the pink slip once new ownership group gets settled but that likely won’t happen until after the season. Budenholzer will naturally go back to San Antonio to make a great coaching team even stronger. Awesome!
9. The Nets will be sold- Based on everything I”ve read, and the fact that Mr. Prokhorov has already tested the waters, and the promise of a huge payday given how much the Clippers were sold for (THE CLIPPERS!), Prokho may already have five people blowing up his assistant’s phone chomping at the bit. The fact is, the new television deal makes owning an NBA team even greater than it already was and with a market like Brooklyn behind it, its easy to see why the possibility of an insane bidding war would make Prokho look at this as the best possible time to sell everything and move! Once he realized he wasn’t winning a title anytime soon, you have to figure that the White Russian basically lost all interest and had his sights set on selling it. This would be the best time to sell.
10. The Minnesota Timberwolves will be the 2014-2015 version of the Phoenix Suns- The Suns were the biggest winners of last year when given the amount of draft picks they had, rookie head coach Jeff Hornacek installed an ultra aggressive two point guard system that scored at a crazy pace. This year, Minnesota has the young guns to run up and down the court for days. While Flip Saunders isn’t my idea of a great head coach, his handling of the Kevin Love situation was something I agreed with. He got Andrew Wiggins and drafted Zach Lavine who’s more than just a dunk show freak. Look for them to make noise for the 8th seed, but fall short.
I should get extra points for not writing the names of Lebron James or Kevin Love at all in this article about the upcoming NBA season. OH wait…
Filed under NBA
Tagged as Anthony Davis, bold predictions, Boston Celtics, Celtics, Charlotte Hornets, David West, Dwight Howard, Indiana Pacers, Jeff Green, kevin love, Kobe Bryant, Lance Stephenson, LeBron James, NBA, New York Knicks, Pacers won't make the playoffs, Prokhorov, Rajon Rondo
December 19, 2011 · 2:58 pm
After being away for two days, I come back to you to bring you Tebow down to earth, the Jets and Giants limping into their showdown on Christmas Eve. The Baron Davis experiment. And some fun links to get you through yet another Monday. ENJOY!
On a day where neither team could ill afford a let down game, BOTH New York area football teams gave their respective fan bases the kind of game that can come back to haunt
AP images
them in their quest to make the playoffs. The Giants lost at home to the Redskins 23-10 while the Jets got blown out in Philly 45-19. Gary Meyers said yesterday’s performance was indicative of so many Tom Coughlin teams. They face the indignity of elimination at the hands of the Jets if they win and the Cowboys beat the Eagle
han city-wide pride. If that’s not enough for you, in yesterday’s post game press conference Antrell Rolle called out his teammates who didn’t partake in practice during the week and Tuck answered by saying “its easy when you do it with another man’s body”.
Here it is for Giant fans. Win the next two games and there’s no discussion. The Giants will win the division. Lose next week and then beat the Cowboys and hope the Eagles lose one of two and they win the division. EITHER WAY, that week 17 matchup comes up to be huge. I dont know what to say about yesterday’s effort by either team but I will say this. I’ve never been a fan of Antrell Rolle and the microphone together, but yesterday he said something that needed to be said.
I get that Justin Tuck is hurt and if he is. If he’s really hurt, then he needs to sit out some games. Tuck has shown me NOTHING through the last six games that he’s played that would lead me to believe he has much of anything in the tank and that’s probably due to his neck stinger. He’s been called out all year by former teammates and now by current ones. That has to be troubling to the defensive captain and frankly, I dont care. Tuck has been sensitive and sissy like when it comes to addressing concerns regarding his health. Look, I’m not a medical expert but if he’s really hurt then he needs to be handled that way. He needs to sit out and not take up space. He’s a valuable member of the defense but NOT at 60% which it looks like he’s playing. Offensive linemen are handling him on one on one situations and yesterday’s game he was being tossed aside like a rag doll and the Giants were not getting any kind of pressure. No Osi, and virtually no Tuck which leaves ONLY JPP as the real threat for the defense and he again was the only guy who seemed to play like he cared.
Rolle’s astute observation aside, this coverage unit is a liability at this point. They were horrendous in tackling as well. Prince Amukamara fell for virtually every single move that any receiver he was facing was throwing at him. The kid will get better, but he was being burned at every available turn and deserved the half time benching knowing that this was basically a game they HAD to have.
IF the Giants and Jets won yesterday, Saturday’s game may not have meant as much. The Giants have had plenty of games like that where they could’ve won. They were on their way to victories over Seattle, the Niners and the Eagles. Three wins that IF they had back, they could’ve clinched the division by last Sunday. But the Giants have not played a full game where all three facets of the team have come together.
Speaking of three facets of the team not coming together, the Jets got beat up and down by the Eagles who by the way aren’t done in the NFC East race either. SHOULD they win out and all three teams wind up with an 8-8 record, yes it will be the Eagles winning the division by virtue of a better divisional record and making all the experts look like geniuses. Thankfully there is a very remote chance of that happening but yes, that CAN happen. So don’t rule it out completely. In fact, I think that’s probably the most likely scenario given how the Eagles absolutely HANDLED the Cowboys in their first meeting and how the Eagles have looked in the past two weeks: you know like the dominant team everyone expected them to be. Either way the biggest take away from this game for the Jets: they had better fix the secondary immediately. I mean the third level where the safeties are. Brodney Poole is a liability in coverage and they have NOBODY there to match up with the tight end. David Harris doesn’t have the speed and Bart Scott has quietly had one of the worst seasons of his career. The Jets will have to figure that out quickly. They are now in a tie for the Wild Card. The Jets control their fate. Win out and they are in.
All in for Saturday. It will be interesting to see how this goes.
In the other major game yesterday, the Tim Tebow led Denver Broncos were brought down to earth by competition that they were not better than yesterday. The Patriots, coupled with the Jets loss, also clinched the AFC East crown for the 9th time in 11 years. What happened? Greg Bedard says that the defense, which sunk to depths they didn’t know existed, changed the course of the game. Dan Shaughnessy said that it was just routine for these AFC assassins. Tebow time didn’t get a chance to start up thanks to a few costly turnovers says Don Banks of SI.com. Judy Batista of the New York Times said that yesterday restored order to conventional wisdom that says that Tim Tebow and the Broncos can’t be successful. Woody Paigesaid that despite the luck that seemed to hover over the Broncos for the last two months wasn’t there at Mile High, the Broncos still received help thanks to a poor showing by the Raiders who lost a lead and the game against the Lions. Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post hit the nail right in the head when he said
AP imagesAP images
“while Tebow has earned the right to operate this team in 2012, the offense must evolve to the point where Denver can play more than one way.” Finally, Mike Silver of Yahoo Sports said it best: Tim Tebow learned a valuable lesson at the hands of the master.
Look, nobody’s a bigger fan of this guy than me. As a football fan I’ve never seen anything like Tim Tebow. I think that goes for everybody else. But I saw this coming a mile away. But those who want to point to Tim Tebow as the reason they lost may want to think again. Yes, this showed that Tim Tebow can NOT keep up with a high flying offense. This showed that unless they work out his throwing motion and develop him more as a pure pocket passer, the Broncos won’t be able to sustain good performances against good teams. But let’s forget all that for a minute.
In a span of 9 offensive plays, the Broncos fumbled three times. Twice they were recovered by the Patriots and they scored 10 points off those turnovers. One of the fumbles also resulted in a three and out which wound up being a field goal. That’s thirteen points that the Broncos GAVE the Patriots. Take those points away, and its 16-14 heading into the half. Then you put that seven on the board from the third, the Patriots are up 21-16 heading into the fourth quarter. Imagine that game going into the fourth quarter with Tebow just a touchdown away from winning it. You have to entertain the possibility because when the team is close, they believe. They have unending faith. That’s what I’ve seen from the Broncos in those fourth quarters. They have undying faith that they will win the game and so that quarter could’ve gone either way. If the Patriots had gained the momentum and not put that 20 spot in the second quarter, the Broncos and Patriots go into that fourth and it turns into a different game. Who knows, the Patriots may have won but yesterday was not a shoot out. No. Yesterday was not about Tom Brady and the Patriots scoring more points than the Broncos by just sheer machine like efficiency. No, it was the Broncos giving them opportunities deep in their own territory and now giving the offense a chance by keeping it close.
Most teams in the NFL won’t do that and can’t recover from that. And that in the end is the point folks. Let’s start looking at this team from a reasonable point of view. Let’s not differentiate them and put them in a different class. That they are not. The premise behind that is wrong and is what gives talk show heads so much to talk about. Yes, everybody is different in their own special way. But Tebow should not get more credit for running this unconventional (by pro-standards) offense anymore than Tom Brady gets overvalued in my estimation for the Patriots Super Bowl victories. Yes, he won them but let’s be real, he never led touchdown drives to win games, he led drives that ended up in field goals and Adam Viniatieri kicked the Patriots into history.
The fact is, this is JUST another NFL quarterback. He’s JUST another second year QB. And that’s how he should be evaluated. Free from the emotion of what he represents. He’s a great story but every story has an end. Was yesterday the end? I dont know. Tebow has proven that he can answer the critics and the critics have no answers for the way he seemingly pulls games out. No one can dispute ths 7-1 record but most want to dispute the fact that he is a viable NFL Quarterback. But they are looking at him from the narrow minded view point of traditional drop back passers like Tom Brady. And that’s how they should be. There is no comparative player in this generation. Even the Fran Tarkentons weren’t built like Tebow. No way could Fran ever have pulled off that 9 yard TD run that Tebow pulled off in the first quarter. But if the Broncos ever needed a wake up call from this hallucinogen that the Tebow saga has had them on, this was it.
Brady was simple. Brady was precise. Brady was everything we expected. He was probably the anti-Christ in this game but he was the anti-dote for the Broncos. They need to wake up from this dream that everyone has been swept up in. Yes he’s a great player but there’s work to be done and now most are beginning to see it. There’s a game against Buffalo next week IN Buffalo that will surely have people ranting and raving about him again. The Bills have packed up and gone home and then they finish off the season against the Chiefs. Those perfect season ruining Chiefs. They are in the drivers seat thanks to the Lions beating the Raiders in comeback fashion. The Broncos need only win out and then its the playoffs and if Tebow has proven ANYTHING is possible.
But yesterday was their first taste of something real. Every week seemed to have something set up so that they would be victorious. The Bears minus Cutler and Forte. The Vikings minus Adrian Peterson. The Jets minus an offense and oxygen to the head on that final play. The Broncos had victories seemingly served up and give them credit, they accepted the hand outs and rode the wave. But anyone who didn’t see yesterday’s game coming was drinking heavily from the communion wine. Tom Brady was not going to let Tebow have the crown and all the fun. Brady reminded us all that it takes more than just one man to win games. He passed, he scored and the entire Patriot team came together for that win and now they stand at 11-3. Masters of their own fate and able to win out and get that first round bye. Of course they will need Pittsburgh to lose tonight. But yesterday was a dose of reality for a Bronco team that needed it desperately.
If the Broncos want to win, it will be imperative that they improve Tim Tebow. He has all the intangibles and he’s got all the stuff that people like you or I can’t see or explain. Now its time to see tangible results. Things that can help the argument: Tim Tebow is a good NFL Quarterback. Lord knows that most Tebow-supporters have prayed for that day to come.
Baron Davis will join the New York Knicks and make it official by today. Marc Berman says that the initial diagnosis of 8-10 weeks was meant to scare off teams that may have bid for the Baron’s services. Knicks medical staffers took a look into his medical reports and decided that he would be able to play in about a month. Davis only wanted to play for three teams: his hometown Los Angeles Lakers, the Knicks and the Heat. All three of those teams would NOT have been able to bid during the amnesty auction due to their 
cap situation. Also contained within this report is that the Knicks still have the veteran’s minimum of $1.4 mil to dangle and perhaps Al Thornton will be a good fit as they have spoken to his representatives. In this report, Berman (who’s been the biggest news scooper this side of Alan Hahn for Knick fans) also says that Spike Lee began to plant the seed early on for Tyson Chandler’s free agent welcome to New York. Mitch Lawrence is a little less than enthused by the Baron Davis signing, saying that it speaks more to what the Knicks don’t have than their trust in what Baron Davis DOES have.
I’m in the latter category. The Knicks have a solid core. Yes, I don’t like Mike Bibby because he’s a liability on defense. Then there’s Toney Douglass who’s a liability on offense. Then there’s Imam Shumpert who outside of one impressive preseason game has nothing to show for himself. And so the Baron Davis experiment begins albeit only by around MLK day as the Knicks are telling it. The Knicks are a promising team. They have a front court that makes others drool but their second team is a huge question mark and in a shortened season where they will need to rest their guys especially Amar’e for long stretches on those tough back to back night games which will be early and often, the hope here is that something pans out from that second group. They will be counted on. Which is why teams that are 8-10 deep are probably assured of the most success while teams that are top heavy will find the road the hardest.
The Knicks are top heavy. Unless they get some scoring from Bill Walker and Bibby turns back the clock some, and the rookie shows more than just flashes in a preseason game, the Knicks will be woefully thin and they will be forced to play games where they will need huge performances from their superstars to maintain. The Knicks don’t have that much size but if what we saw from Jorts Harrleson is true, then the Knicks may have some depth on the other end. D’Antoni after the Nets game made a very interesting point: Carmelo Anthony may be their best passer. Which tells you what you need to know. The Knicks will lean more on Anthony to lead the team. Amar’e is the heart and soul of this team and we give him that. He’s the guy who came to NY when no one else would. He led the renaissance last year. But Carmelo is by far the best player on the team and he needs to take that next step in his evolution. Running the offense through him will be better and give the Knicks more opportunities. The best pick and roll I saw from the Knicks was the one he and Amar’e ran and that’s the kind of easy offense the Knicks can have when those two superstars are working in tandem.
I will get more into that in my season preview on Friday.
But this move was made, in my opinion, more as an indictment of what we don’t have than what we do have in the back court. Baron Davis comes with huge question marks, bad back not included. There are questions of chemistry. Of work ethic. Of motivation. His defensive ability. Of his overall ability declining. But talent like his comes along rarely. When motivated, Davis is a beast. A threat to throw down 20 points dish out thirteen assists including four or five wow alley oops to willing partcipants: Amar’e and Melo (though you may want to add Shump to that list because he looks like an athletic freak too). BUT the big question is which Baron will show up and how often will good Baron be the one that puts on the uniform and how long this love fest will last.
I’m not holding my breath. My hope is that Toney Douglas improves as the season progresses and Shump has a monster season and proves the Knick draftniks right when they drafted him so that Davis’ presence will only be peripheral and not in the main view of the Knicks vision which currently is on a championship.
Howard Beck of the New York Times says that a New York rivalry can be revived at the drop of a Dwight, i mean Dime should the Nets make a huge acquisition themselves. The Clippers deal for CP3 shows how quickly a city can come alive for that.
Mark Heisler wrote one of the funniest mock letters to Donald Sterling pleading with him NOT to mess this up.
Sending out a Praise God for the news of Celtic Jeff Green who had an aortic aneurysm treated thanks to a last minute check up. The condition will sideline Green for the season, an unfortunate set back but wonderful news considering what could’ve been had they not discovered it.
Ben Bolch looks at the fascinating life that IS Metta World Peace. Thug. Humanitarian. Bench player for the Los Angeles Lakers.
Just click this link Lebron Haters and enjoy. Thanks Dallas Fort Worth Telegram.
acebook
witter
The Lazy Eye of Sports 