Tag Archives: Grantland

October 24, 2014 · 10:42 pm

NBA Season Preview Part II (Teams from 30-16)

The NBA season is upon us and with that, its time to preview the season.  You can find part one here.  For this preview I decided rather than write some long winded thing about how Kobe Bryant is ruining the Lakers franchise (more on that later), I would rather structure it in a crowd pleasing way: go reverse order in rank of all 30 NBA franchises heading into the season and list one player to watch and one subplot over the course of the season.  Hope you enjoy it and hope you learn and hope you care enough to curse me out over the internet and tell me I don’t know crap.  Here is part I:

30. Sixers logoPhiladelphia 76ers-

Player to Watch- Nerlens Noel (C)- Noel is in his second year out of the NBA training academy in Kentucky known as the Wildcat collegiate program.  He’s a long armed, afro-d rim protector sent to the Sixers to play with the emotions of players hoping to score in the paint.  Obviously this season is lost in the midst of the biggest, most open tanking party known to sports (as the NBA Twitteratzi will have you believe), so the most important story on the court will be Noel’s development along with MCW’s development playing with Noel and then maybe if we’re lucky we may even see a Joel Embiid sighting!

Major Subplot of the Season- Tankapalooza- Technically the Sixers won their first game of the season when major lottery reform was shot down by a vote of 17-13.  Zach Lowe of Grantland expertly outlined what was at stake for this vote.  The NBA and its righteous police will surely devote thousands of words and twitter memes to symbolize what a horrible thing this is, but I’m all for any careful, thought out process of becoming good again.  Fans will come back once the team starts winning.  Suffer for a few years, but beware when the tag of losers are ripped off.  That’s when the fun starts.

29. jazz symbol Utah Jazz-

Player to Watch- Dante Exum (PG?)-  I put a question mark because the Jazz and rookie coach Quinn Snyder will likely use him in a variety of roster spots.  But he’s a natural point guard.  Exum is the baby of a youtube highlight clip, reared by Twitter GIF’s and raised by the blessing of the NBA Twitterverse.  Which is to say he’s a completely digital creation.  Now comes the human element: actual games.  I like what i’ve heard, and I’m more intrigued by the few highlights I’ve seen from Jazz preseason games.  I’m not going to venture a guess on his ceiling because nobody knows, but a point guard that can fly and has court vision?  Should be fun.

Major Subplot of the Season- How Toure Murray and Steve Novak will save the Jazz!  Young and the Restless- The Utah Jazz have the youngest roster in the NBA.  Twelve of the 15 players that will suit up for the Jazz are 25 and younger.  Talent wise, they have three Top 5 Picks (Exum, Kanter, and Favors), six lottery picks (+ Hayward, Burks and Burke), and nine first rounders (+Booker, Hood, Govert), pedigree which suggests they should be good.  They are like Philly three years into their tanking program, but the feeling is that there will be more losses piling on for the Jazz.  They play in the ultra-competitive West where there are legitimately 10 teams vying for the 8 playoff spots.  So it gives Utah liberty to continue piling on assets before they have to make their first big move, which likely will mean either Kanter or Favors is on their way out.  Bet on Kanter, but definitely lay money on the fact that the Jazz will look very Spurs-ian on offense (don’t we all aspire to) while running exciting rotations which should keep hoop nerds in the East up long hours watching this young 20 something line up explore themselves like a young teenager watching porn for the first time.

28. Lakers-Logo Los Angeles Lakers-

Player to Watch- Kobe Bryant (SG)- C’mon, as if there was anyone else.  I honestly don’t know how Kobe’s season will play out but after this article by Henry Abbot (a journalist of the highest order) where he lists anonymous sources within the Lakers organization who believe that Kobe is the reason they are bad and will continue to be bad.  Not helping matters was Jeannie Buss going all Steinbrenner-ish by publicly criticizing these anonymous sources and calling any player who doesn’t want to play with Kobe a loser anyway, I can’t help but feel uneasy about predicting anything but a ton of back and forth between Kobe’s fan base (long one of the most fierce in NBA history) over Twitter that could get nasty.

Major Subplot of the Season- Byron Scott and the National Advanced Stats legion- Not only are advanced stats here to stay, but they have crept into every crevice of NBA operation and major NBA writing which will likely skew your thoughts on the matter.  Fact is, Byron Scott is wrong based on all the statistical evidence we’ve seen (see!  its happening to me!).  To be fair, Scott came to Cleveland on July 2nd, 2010.  We all know what happened on July 8th when Lebron tap danced on Cleveland fans hearts and went to Miami.  Well, he comes to Los Angeles, the place of his greatest trumps RIGHT as Kobe is entering a “prove you’re still great” season where he’ll launch a ton of shots while playing a bunch of one on two or threes and giving below average defense and demanding minutes.  Also, the best free agents the Lakers got were Jeremy Lin, who will now be pushed into more minutes with Steve Nash being done for the season, and Carlos Boozer who’s biggest contribution the last few seasons was this.  Things could get bad in Tinseltown fast.  But hey, at least they will sell out!

27. bucks logoMilwaukee Bucks-

Player to Watch- Jabari Parker (SF)- Carmelo Anthony clone.  Number two draft pick in a loaded draft.  Thought to be a franchise player.  There’s tons of things here to like, but let’s call it what it is.  Here is the season for the Bucks right here:

Major Subplot of the Season- Jason Kidd dealing with a young roster- In Brooklyn he was a rookie coach trying to get the most out of a veteran roster.  He flipped the script, jumped ship (there’s really no other way of saying it) and went to a team with a bunch of young pieces.  Kidd had plenty of lows in Brooklyn but the fact is, he did it his way which is how you can accurately describe his NBA career.  He’s a natural leader and he will be the voice the players turn to when they are down in a crunch time situation and youth and inexperience will drive them to the Fountain of Kidd.  This may not be a good team, butut expect them to be hungry and give teams a good scare down the stretch.  Expect them also to be very busy come trade deadline.  Shoutout to John Henson who I saw give everyone elbows because he still hasn’t figured out how freakishly long his limbs are.  You can’t teach that.

26. Magic logoOrlando Magic-

Player to Watch- Elfrid Payton (PG)- Many expect Payton to challenge Jabari Parker for the Rookie of the Year.  Payton is that mix of rangy athleticism with a good body that compares well to Exum, only he played in the States.  While he did play in the Sun Belt Conference, the experience of playing States-side players is very critical when seeing how he projects and he’s proven in both Vegas (7.2 APG) and in 27 MPG in the preseason (5 APG) that he’s up for the challenge.  It also helps that everyone has been glowing about how mature and wise beyond his years he is.

Major Subplot of the Season- They can play but can they shoot though?- The stats suggest not.  Jacque Vaughn is in a weird spot.  They already have lost Victor Oladipo for an extended stretch when he broke his orbital bone.  They brought in Channing Frye to help spacing but you can almost make the case that 60% of their starting lineup not only can’t shoot, but are historically bad.  Aaron Gordon doesn’t project well as a shooter, and neither does Tobias Harris who the Magic have to make a decision on whether to extend.  How can you create space for Payton to drive, or Oladipo to drive or Gordon to roll to the basket if NOBODY is afraid of them from 10 feet and beyond?  That’s the question for them to  ponder.

25. CelticsLogoBoston Celtics-

Player to Watch- Rajon Rondo (PG)- In my 10 bold predictions for the upcoming season, I wrote that Rondo would not be traded and that Jeff Green would be.  Most may think I dislike Rondo which is far from the truth.  I love Rondo.  I think having a competitor like him can only help your team and he has the playoff chops to take your team over the top.  Even if he isn’t a fit in the triangle, I would welcome him to my Knicks.  But this season the Celtics, who drafted Marcus Smart specifically to take over the mercurial yet talented point guard of the Celtics mantle that Rondo held firm for so many years,  are continuing their rebuilding and transition.  They have quality pieces to give away in trades and Rondo being the big chip.  I just don’t see it happening, unless the Celtics find a very anxious bidder who’s willing to overpay which is exactly how Danny Ainge wants to play it.  But Rondo isn’t the cookie cutter and he comes with hard edges that will make him a very tough add to any team hoping to add Rondo to their team easily.

Major Subplot of the Season- Can Danny find a home for Rondo?- I realize I’m doubling up on this but let’s face it, the Celtics will try like heck to trade him.  Getting back value will be completely up to Danny Ainge.  Will he hold on to Rondo even though he knows retaining him will take repairing their relationship?  We still have yet to see Rondo and Brad Stevens collaborate in an 82 game season which is something that could be fascinating.  But Ainge’s responsibility first and foremost will be to trade Rondo and get back draft picks, salary relief, and young players.  I don’t know that he will accomplish that goal but the season will likely be in limbo until Ainge either trades him or pays him. You know who’s the x-factor on how this plays out?  Rajon Rondo.  Who knows if he wants to stick it to Celtic management?  Who knows if there’s resentment or bitterness on how the Celtic saga ended with the smearing campaign when Ray Allen left?  Coming to NY won’t help that but you can see how a change of scenario will help.  If Ainge has Rondo after the trade deadline, all the leverage will return to Rondo and that’s the scenario that Ainge does NOT want to see played out.

24. Timberwolves logo Minnesota Timberwolves-

Player to Watch- Andrew Wiggins (SF)- He said all the right things about how he was looking forward to the challenge.  How he’s motivated.  How he wants to play for a team that wants him.  Those are all fine and well.  He and Anthony Bennett will be compared in the impossible microscope of the Kevin Love trade.  That’s tough for any rookie, no matter how heralded.  Now comes the proving ground.  There’s no question about the defensive ability already.  His offensive game still needs a lot more work and he will get plenty of minutes to develop it.  Now’s the time rook.  Now.

Major Subplot of the Season- How does Flip Saunders deal with making a good deal?- Look, when you’re losing the quality of big man in Kevin Love, the fact is, there is no such thing as equal value.  So reality has to set in and accept the best deal possible.  Saunders did as decent a job as he could given the position the team was in.  They got a guy in Wiggins who could wind up being a generational talent, another number one pick who could be who knows what, and wound up with a quality NBA big man in Thaddeus Young.  Its not perfect, but its something.  They drafted Zach Lavine.  The Love departure will open up minutes for Gorgei Dieng who in limited minutes and then in international competition opened eyes.  There’s plenty to like about what the Love trade did for the franchise, but really it opened things up for a young group.  Now, Flip has to make sure Flip can coach them up.  This is the roster Flip gave Flip.  This is the roster that Flip will die with even if Flip doesn’t like it.

23. Kings logoSacramento Kings-

Player to Watch- Boogie Cousins (PF/C)- Count me in on the Boogie bandwagon.  The question becomes: is he a franchise player?   The Kings extended him, but that’s a referendum on a small market team desperately holding on to its best talent by offering him the most any team can offer, rather than the seal of approval by a brand new ownership/front office.  Talent has never been the question.  Its his inability to keep his emotions in check or be a leader that folks can draw from.  Well, I’m all in on the Boogie breakout season, which is saying something because he’s one of 5 players to average 20 and 10.  I’m all in on the goal of ONLY drawing 5 technicals.  Let’s go Boogie.

Major Subplot of the Season- Does Mike Malone have the pieces and/or time to make this work? Malone was a highly regarded assistant and son of Brendan Malone who served as a Knicks assistant in the Warriors when Vivek Ranadive, majority owner of the Kings, was a minority owner in Golden State.  So, it seems curious when the Kings head honcho came out and said now its about wins and losses. Regardless, the Kings will struggle by sheer virtue of geography (maybe they should’ve moved huh?).  They won 28 games and while improvement would be winning 30, that’s not the kind of improvement this Kings team wants.  Their cap is pretty clean and they have all their draft picks which is the good news.  The bad news is again, they play in the Western conference.  Dave D’Alessandro, the Kings GM, has turned this roster over aside from two players, and sees the turnover as a way to get better.  Losing Isaiah Washington was tough but I understand them not wanting to devote too much cap room for too many years to him.  Rudy Gay posted some of his best numbers playing alongside Boogie and they didn’t want to kill each other which is a major plus.  The Kings are a match for the Celtics if they are looking for draft picks and salaries to throw in a trade without too much of a long term commitment.  Add in the fact that Rudy Gay and Rondo are buddies, there’s definitely smoke there to start a full on fire.  But adding Rondo without the assurance of a contract being signed would be silly.  But with an edict like the one given to the Kings from ownership- do they have a choice if Ainge comes calling?

22. Hawks logo Atlanta Hawks 

Player to Watch- Al Horford (PF/C)- He’s quietly been one of the best PF/C’s.  People forget that he came from back to back national titles in Florida playing alongside Corey Brewer and Joakim Noah on those great Gator teams.  But he’s playing on a team that has been playing for the 6th-8th spot in the league since the days of Iso Joe offense.  Horford is due $12M this year and the next.  It will be interesting to see how both the Hawks and Horford play contract negotiations after a terrible winter.

Major Subplot of the Season- Change is coming- The Hawks under Danny Ferry have done a good job in retaining flexibility while signing solid veterans to decent deals.  How Danny Ferry’s racist rants and owner Bruce Levenson’s racist email plays into the Hawks future is clear: change is coming and its going to come quick.  Once Levenson’s email was leaked, and audio of Ferry making racist remarks were made, the clock officially began on their collective tenure expiring in Atlanta.  But this is a particularly interesting case.  Atlanta is a semi-big market that players love coming to because of its, umm, night life, and when the salary cap explodes in two years, this will be a team with almost 3 max salary slots available- one of them that will likely be filled by Horford unless something funky happens during negotiations.  There will be plenty of offers from more rich white guys (including a group headlined by Chris Webber) and a presence by Dominique, the former Hawk great, which is all but a certainty given how much positive press that would generate for any incoming group.  Until there is a new owner, plenty is up in the air about this franchise.

21.Pistons logoDetroit Pistons-

Player to Watch- Josh Smith (PF)- With Stan Van Gundy as the head coach and GM, its likely that Josh Smith will really have to mind his P’s and Q’s.  But here’s where Stan Van has the edge.  He’s already dealt with Josh Smith’s old pal Dwight Howard and knows how to get the most out of a talented big man who may just need direction.  Smith signed a 4 year contract worth $54 million last year when Detroit threw money around like a 24 year old with daddy’s new Black card.  Smith will be asked to play closer to the basket which goes against Josh Smith’s version of events that sees him as a stretch 4.  Of course real world statistics don’t bare that out, and that’s Stan Van’s mission: to convince Smith of who he is. There are talks about putting Smith as a sixth man In the end, this is more about developing Smith so that Stan Van can develop Andre Drummond into Dwight 2.0, only one that’s nicer to Nickelodeon stars they have relations with.

Major Subplot of the Season- Can Stan Van the exec agree with Stan Van the coach? SVG has long been regarded as one of the brightest minds in coaching.  His looks and personal style have left much to be desired but we haven’t minded.  He singlehandedly outed Dwight Howard as the biggest D-bag on the planet after we were duped with all the stories of farting and those big smiles that made us all think he was a swell guy.  So he has a history in player management.  But a coach can convince himself that he can right a player.  This is Stan’s first go-round as the top of the food chain.  No longer will he be told from execs within the organization about a player’s dislike of him, the information will have to be funneled through him.  Don’t think that teams won’t reach out to pull a fast one on him either.  Greg Monroe signed a qualifying offer but only because nobody else came calling with a max offer which shouldn’t shock him.  Nothing about Monroe’s game screams max-contract guy.  His skill set takes a backseat to the stylings of Andre Drummond and Monroe may seek greener pastures elsewhere where teams don’t have an Andre Drummond to shine light on his physical failings.  Bringing him in as a sixth man to help spacing, which was discussed as well with Josh Smith, could be the final nail unscrewed to make Monroe walk through the door, but there’s reason to believe he was headed out anyway.  Plenty of decisions for Stan Van the coach and Stan Van the GM, but can they both agree to help the team?

20. Pacers logoIndian Pacers-

Player to Watch- Paul George (SF) Roy Hibbert (C)- Last season’s fun ride and good times stopped because Roy Hibbert forgot how to be Roy Hibbert from the Knicks series.  The Great Wall of Roy who swatted everything with ferocity the likes of which had not been seen since Patrick Ewing roamed the center position for the Georgetown Hoyas.  So it goes without saying that this season will be extremely important to his development.  This season will likely feature Hibbert a whole lot (possibly in hopes that they can deal Hibbert for some financial freedom).  Frank Vogel may even run the offense through him.  If he wants to procure a big contract during the suddenly scorching Summer of 2016- he had better develop this year into the guy he showed in the Knicks series in 2012.

Major Subplot of the Season- Will the band be broken up?  My guess is that they will trade pieces, go for the lottery and then try their luck with a young piece next to a recovering Paul George.  George is their everything.  So if they go this route, it will allow Indiana to bring George back slowly rather than rushing him back.   They have seen in their division how a roster full of complementary pieces without a bona fide superstar and a very good coach can only achieve so much in the Chicago Bulls. It remains to be seen what it would do to a fan base that was only beginning to fill up the stands again, but its understandable and in my opinion the right move.  My guess is that David West gets moved and they shop Hibbert  as well, dangling George Hill with both players to net the best possible return.

19. Knicks logoNew York Knicks-

Player to Watch- Iman Shumpert (SF)- Phil likes him.  We know this because he told Charley Rosen as much.  Shumpert’s athleticism helps him play on both ends.  His defense is at times overrated and his offense is nowhere near where it is.  Last season his minutes began to get slashed because of some reported rift between he and Coach Woodson so its important that he get off on the right foot with rookie head coach Derek Fisher.  Entering Restricted Free Agency, Iman could play himself into bigger bucks, a trade that could bring back a huge package or an enigma that has the tools to be great but none of the actual stats to back that up.

Major Subplot of the Season- Will the Triangle be a success in NY?- There are enough questions about Derek Fisher being able to handle the media spotlight of New York, and handle a star laden lineup that features several players that think they should have the ball a lot, but implementing a system that has been a failure everywhere else but when the current GM was the coach?  I worry for Fisher.  He played in Los Angeles which is a different type of pressure than the one that New York presents.  But if Fisher is going to be successful, and believes 100% in the triangle, and I believe he does, he will have to be patient.  Yes, players are who they are and many won’t change, some like JR Smith may even find the transition a lot more difficult than they ever thought,  and there are others in the basketball community who believe that it isn’t about system that its about the players at the end of the day.  All are true and a reality of the Knick season.  How quickly they adapt to the system will be the true test.

18. nuggets logo Denver Nuggets-

Player to Watch- Jusuf Nurcic (C)- He’s 20 years old, from Boznia and he’s got the Nuggets fan base buzzing along with several personnel folk.  Zack Lowe gave a shoutout during the Grantland NBA hour.  He’s intriguing enough but this speaks more to the rest of the roster more than Nurcic’s potential.  There’s so many B+ guy with one A- in Ty Lawson that its tough to pinpoint one player, so we go with the unknown here in the spot.  At some point these Eastern European giants will put together a season right?

Major Subplot of the Season- Is now the time to break up the roster or do we keep playing this game that the Nuggets can be a contender in the West?- Judging by the level of snark in that sentence you get the sense of where I’m going with this.  I don’t think so.  As a matter of fact, I think that the Nuggets with all of their traceable pieces could go so many different directions.  They could make a trade, and still be a mid-tier contender status.  They could trade a Gallinari and Foye for a pick that could eventually be a lottery pick if things end up right.  There’s so many different ways this could play out for the Nuggets a.k.a. the Knicks of the West, but the truth here is that in a stacked Western Conference, it will be very difficult for THIS version of the Nuggets to make noise.  Just so its clear, I tried really hard NOT to put Wilson Chandler and Danilo Galinari in the players to watch section.

17. Brooklyn-Nets-logo Brooklyn Nets-

Player to Watch- Brook Lopez (C)- No team’s destiny is tied to one player’s health like Nets to Lopez.  If he’s healthy, and the rest of the roster, this is a playoff team that can give a top 4 seed a scare in the East.  They have a solid front line in Garnett, Lopez and Plumlee that can cause problems.  But if Lopez doesn’t play, this is a lottery team.  Again, the Eastern Conference is chock full of mediocre to below average teams that could eventually make this a moot conversation.  But Lopez’s health will ultimately decide the fate of the Brooklyn Nets.

Major Subplot of the Season- Are there bigger shakeups in store?-  They don’t have the assets to get a big superstar so they may have to stand pat.  But there are enough signs that point to a major shake up of the entire organization including rumors popping up that Mikhail Prokhorov has begun gauging interest in selling the team in the wake of Steve Ballmer paying $2 Billion for the Clippers. I don’t blame him.  He has political aspirations for 2016 and sees the NBA’s latest TV deal as a sign that he could fetch a very healthy sum for his team.  Add that to reports that the Nets lost $144 million due to operating costs and there’s motive.  Prokho has been silent for some time which leads people to believe that he’s already planning his exit.  If so, it could potentially lead to large scale changes.  Billy King might be asked to sell off assets to make the books look a lot cleaner than it is and who knows what could be had and for what.  King has never struck me as an awesome deal maker, save for the Deron Williams trade which was an all time hammer move.  Either way, Brooklyn’s activity come deadline time could be a sign of potential ownership changes to come.

16. Suns logoPhoenix Suns-

Player to Watch- Eric Bledsoe (PG)-  All that needs to be said.  And to think, they were playing a staring contest over a contract extension:

Major Subplot of the Season- Can a two point guard system work full-time?  The Suns are betting on it.  Big time.  They re-signed Eric Bledsoe.  They signed Isaiah Washington, and drafted Tyler Ennis.  Initially you could’ve said that the last two moves were in case Bledsoe left, but when the restricted market was a dry patch of pavement, Bledsoe came back to the Suns at a reasonable price for both sides.  Looking at that contract from the perch of a huge TV deal that could make the salary cap explode to close to $100M that means the Suns could be major players for free agents with all the assets they have and the cap space.  Consider they still have Minnesota’s 1st rounder protected 1-12 in 2015 or 2016 and the Lakers 1st round pick protected 1-5 in 2015 and 1-3 in 2016.  Add to that the miracle workers that is their training staff, and a young smart head coach its easy to see why this can be a destination for would be free agents or a good trade partner for teams trying to get young guys and unload veterans. The Suns who streaked their way 48 wins running a fast paced offense surrounded by shooting might want to look at the advanced stats that show that when Bledsoe or Dragic played with Miles Plumlee, Channing Frye, PJ Tucker, and Gerald Green, their offense flew.  Maybe they see another market inefficiency that they can exploit and try and go two point guards and pick up the pace.  Either way, Hornacek’s rotations, coaching and outright defiance against tanking have led me to lay upon them the unenviable title of my favorite Western Conference team.  Let’s see how this plays out!

Part II coming soon.

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March 27, 2013 · 12:50 pm

Where is this all headed?

lebron-james-heat-1280x1024Its been a while but I just had a few thoughts on the Miami Heat and their streak going into Friday’s game against the Chicago Bulls where everyone has these grandiose dreams and expectations.

The Lebron conversation has been one of the most fascinating in all of sports over the last three years going back to the final game in a Cleveland Cavs uniform where he walked off the court, scratching his head, taking off his Cavs jersey and entering what would end up being the single biggest PR disaster of an offseason that anyone of his ilk has ever undertaken.  Since that time, Lebron has been to two Finals series, won an MVP, on his way to what should be a unanimous second consecutive MVP, won a ring, been humbled, has gone on the longest streak of consecutive wins since the ’71-72 Lakers who won 33 consecutive, and has regained his status as the most popular athlete alive.

Nike recently released an ad stating the obvious and perfect summation of what those much wiser and those who had spent more time on earth said way back in those early months: “winning takes care of everything.”  And win he has done.  You can read Zack Lowe of Grantland fame for the nitty gritty details about how Miami’s offense has evolved into the crisp machine that it was.  Lowe’s recent article detailing the Miami juggernaut says that the Heat stumbled upon the Lebron as the 4 in the most productive of Heat line ups as the single biggest reason for it but I think mentally a hurdle was jumped over that number crunchers even as great as Zack Lowe can’t quantify.

There’s something to be said to how much confidence one can gain from passing your greatest test.  A sense of relief?  Sure.  A confidence that is soaring and unable to be restrained? Definitely.  But what happened on that night that Lebron realized he was NOT going to win an NBA championship to secret rivals, the Dallas Mavericks had to have been the turning point.  The summer of 2010 was one of turmoil and constant roadside attractions that did more to take away from Lebron’s brilliant decision to team up with good friends Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh to form the super Trio, than actually enhance it.  Why was the public so aghast at the idea that Lebron needed help?  Michael Jordan admits on nearly every occasion that he wouldn’t have been as successful if he didn’t have Scottie Pippen.  Magic and Bird had stocked teams to the max.  Isiah Thomas won with one of the five greatest rebounders in NBA history, Dennis Rodman, and Shaq won with Kobe, and Kobe won with Pau and Bynum.

His summer of 2011 was vastly different.  He went into a hole, some had surmised brought on by his humiliating defeat at the hands of Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks.  The Mavs partied on their turf all into the wee hours and for a majority of the NBA fandom who had grown tired of arrogant Lebron who had promised not five, not six, not seven rings in a parade that the Heat threw to announce the arrival of impending doom on the rest of the NBA (Which i’m sure 29 other fan bases and teams saw and didn’t really appreciate), it was a sweet victory for everything that is good.  Bad guy Lebron left that building understanding one thing: he needed to work harder, and keep his mouth shut.  So we didn’t hear a peep from him or the Heat during that summer of the lock out.  They would tweet out workout pics on occasion.  They would put up quotes of inspiration, more for themselves.  And when the season opened, nobody was more prepared for the grind of a lockout shortened season than them.  They played at a pace that was vastly different and superior to a majority of the competition.  But they still weren’t the dominant team that everyone expected and feared.

Then something happened in the playoffs.  I call it the Neo moment.  The Neo moment happens to a player in every generation in each sport or walk of life.  Its that part in the first Matrix movie (the only one really worth watching, though I give a thumbs up to the second Matrix movie too even if its not cool to do so), when Neo having been shot, gets up and stops the bullets and finally understands and takes on the responsibility of his immense talents instead of running away from his potential.  That moment happened in Boston, in game six of the Eastern Conference Finals when Lebron, tired of losing to the Celtics in every big spot and moment since 2008, decided that the Heat were not going to lose.  He dominated the game in the same way that Magic Johnson announced himself to the NBA world in 1979 when he led the Lakers to a championship by playing center and scoring 42 points in a game six win.  He scored 45 points pulled in 15 rebounds and the Celtics had virtually NO SHOT from there on out and neither did the rest of the league.  For the first time, Lebron let himself know that he was the best player on the court and he could dominate when he wanted to.  When his team needed a basket he could pull up and hit a three.  When his team needed him to facilitate, there he was to throw the right pass.  When his team needed him to crash the boards and eliminate second chance opportunities there he was again beasting and flying way above the heads of anyone and everyone to pull the loose balls down.

He was a man possessed and nobody, and nothing was going to stand in his way.  This season’s consecutive wins streak is a manifestation of that belief.  If this isn’t impressive to the casual NBA fan, then nothing will do it.  If this doesn’t signal that Lebron is competing against ONLY his own shadow at this point then nothing will do it.  Its not just his belief, its his teammates belief that no matter what the situation, being down double digits in Boston late in the 3rd quarter or being down 17 against the Knicks in the third quarter or going down by 20+ in Cleveland, where even their vitriol seems to have slowed to a halt (it may have something to do with the fact that Lebron left the door wide open for a reunion with his home town in 2014 when he may have accomplished everything he wants to in South Beach), it doesn’t matter.  At this point, Lebron does what he wants when he wants.

Tom Haberstroh another wise sage of the stat kingdom, spoke about the vertical spacing that Chris “Birdman” Anderson gives to the Heat.  But the point is, it all starts with Lebron.  It all ends with Lebron.  He’s the single greatest athlete alive in sports and everyone that doesn’t believe that is just foolish.  I’m old enough where I’m not as anti-greatness as I was back when Jordan was around.  I hated MJ for the routine beat downs he would put on my beloved Knicks and though my fandom overtakes me from time to time where I’m foolish enough to think that my Knicks have a chance against Lebron’s Heat, its just dumb.  Its the kind of talk that’s reserved for a few beers in me, while watching the Knicks dispatch the Celtics in Boston talk.  Its just all talk.  Lebron is a man amongst boys and when athletes come along and dominate on this kind of level you just wonder how anyone can compare?

Like most people my age, we hold on to this memory of Michael Jordan as the single greatest player ever, but I can say without any hesitation that we’ve NEVER seen anyone like Lebron.  Never.  Not a single person has combined his athletic gifts with a superior knowledge of the game in such a package.  And that package is rolling.  Its steamrolling through what looks like diluted NBA competition.  Its not making any pit stops, its just coming to a town near you, taking care of business and moving on.  Seeing the eternal glory that history can give to his team, Lebron has done the right thing.  He’s set his sights even higher.  He sees Michael’s six.  He sees his legacy and the player he’s always compared to for whatever reason we choose to do it, and he wants to beat it and good for him.  I’m tired of stubbornly refusing to engage in that conversation.  I’m ready to say it.  I’m ready to do it.  Lebron James is heading towards that lone spot on the mountain top.  Good for him.  Its time that a successor came to the Jordan reign.  We though we’d never see another Russell or Wilt, then Kareem came.  We thought we’d never see another Oscar Robertson and Jerry West till Magic and Bird came.  We thought we’d never see another Jordan and then Lebron came.  Yeah I’m saying it.  No hesitations.  If he continues down this path, he WILL BE THE GOAT.  PERIOD.

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December 4, 2011 · 2:39 pm

Sports Roundup 12/4/2011 and Week 13 Picks!

Bill Simmons of Grantland.com is bringing you Day 1 of a 12 day series in which he covers the frantic NBA Free Agent Experience and makes the simple yet honest point: Even though the lockout was meant to stop dumb contracts, we’re about to get even MORE dumb contracts in the coming days.  Gentlemen, start your paychecks.  Speaking of which, Vishnu Parasuraman of Grantland explains the new deal in a comprehensive yet simple way.  Ok fine, so I got an Indian sports writer in there.  SUE ME!

I’m a huge Bill Simmons fan so you’ll be seeing alot of his posts linked for sure.  He’s a huge basketball junkie thus his opus titled the Book of Basketball which went through his thoughts and long held beliefs of the game so you knew he would have something for basketball junkies as the NBA was coming out of the lockout.  His point?  the deal could’ve been struck five months ago but players held stubbornly and owners were too dick headed to admit their faults.  Now, we have a 66 game season in which the league and its elder statesmen will be subjected to AT LEAST one back to back to back set of games.  NBA fans won’t care but remember that teams with older players will be rested more to survive the grind.  An interesting point that Simmons made was that this proved how vital the NBA views its slate of games on Christmas Day.  Its their Thanksgiving.  They didn’t want to lose it and couldn’t afford to do so and Simmons argued that it made sense and the NBA should consider making some cosmetic changes to their schedule in order to not get in the way of football and therefore step on their own toes.  Not many people pay attention to basketball on Sundays while the NFL is still pumping out its product.  And now with the NFL set to have a Thursday game every week and then some Saturday games starting on Christmas eve, you can bet that the NBA will be keeping a close watch on games.

By the way, here’s the updated schedule of games that will kick off the NBA season:

Boston AT New York (Rondo vs. CP3?), Miami AT Dallas (the banner will be unveiled but the rings apparently won’t be given out), Chicago AT Los Angeles (Who’s going to be the wingman for Derrick Rose this year?), Orlando AT OKC and Clippers AT Golden State.  Got all that?  That’s TNT for Knicks Celts followed by ABC for the next two games with the NBA Finals rematch and Kobe vs. MVP Derrick Rose and finally ESPN gets the last two games.  When’s the last time the NBA went out of its way to put the Clippers in a marquee NBA television night?  Ahh, the power of Blake.

I would make the argument that the NFL will have a tough slate to take away from the NBA but it appears Roger Goodell has paved the streets clean of NFL football, even disposing of Jay Cutler to make the Sunday night game with the Packers and Bears less interesting unless Caleb Hanie’s body gets possessed by a better QB.  Maybe he needs to bring the stache back?

Bill Madden of the New York Daily News is breaking down the wishlist and rumor mill stuff of the Winter Meetings.  For those that don’t know, this is where all the action happens and deals get done.  Oh, and so does Ken Davidoff of Newsday and Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes that the Yankees are going to be quiet for once and that’s because they are trying to cut costs.  Meanwhile here is Jon Heyman of SI (and soon to be CBS Sports) and Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports gives us the skinny on Yu Darvish the sought after pitcher from the Nippon Ham club in Japan.  

The Winter Meetings are interesting because fans are under the impression that this is MLB’s way of getting all 30 GM’s and player agents under one roof to make deals and sign contracts with players but its not.  Its a convention for GM’s, kind of like one of those training seminars your company sends you to and oh by the way every other power broker in the sport ends up in the same hotel (what are the odds?) and winds up swinging deals.  There’s only enough Public Safety Seminars one can stomach apparently.  Blackberries will be used and this is the week that cell phone companies see a spike in calls made and received from certain phone lines.  Either way, plenty of rumors to get to.

The Sherman article interests me because this is not the first time we’ve heard that the Yankees are tightening up their belts.  They ALWAYS say that and like Sherman points out seemingly always spend more and shrug it off because they can.  The Yankees are being more judicious with how they spend their money and they are right, CJ Wilson is NOT worth a major contract.  He’s a third starter in my opinion and NOT a number one.  His cost has been inflated because there’s no other marquee pitching talent available unless the Mariners somehow decide to put King Felix on the block but that’s a long shot especially if the rumors are true and they are going to make a run at Prince Fielder.  Jon Danks could be an interesting option seeing as how Kenny Williams has all but put the Rebuilding notice on his White Sox club and may part ways with their best pitcher to start collecting young assets.  The Yankees won’t trade their Killer B”s for anyone outside of Felix in my opinion.  They still could dangle Jesus Montero and get a pretty good return so the Yankees always have that.  We’ll see how it goes.

As for the Mets, I’ve always been in the trade David Wright Camp.  If the Mets were really interested in rebuilding and trying to maintain a level or status of a long term winner, they would look to trade Wright and I think it would be mandatory should Jose Reyes leave for another team.  One team he may be leaving for are the Miami Marlins who are now facing charges from the SEC about possible violations in how they got their majority-taxpayer-funded brand new ballpark.  Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes that free agents looking at Miami may be scared off by the investigation which has real legs and could possibly end up costing the Marlins a lot.  This is part of a bigger problem that baseball is facing as this will only make the SEC open every single team’s books about how they are getting local governments to raise money via taxpayers to fund these new stadiums.  Baseball is largely guilty of strong arming these local branches on a yearly basis that some in the industry view it as an “about time” investigation.

Back to the Metropolitans.  Sandy Alderson vows that the Mets will be fun to watch and reportedly have a gentleman’s agreement with them and Reyes where Reyes will bring back the final offers to the Mets and the Mets will either allow Reyes to walk or the Mets will match.  Of course that doesn’t mean Jose will take the first genuinely intriguing offer the Mets have.  He will most certainly take it back to other teams and given the state of the Miami Marlins with this pending investigation, Reyes may think twice about taking a multi-year deal to stay there.  The Marlins are willing to give Reyes a 6 year deal, something the Mets are rightfully reluctant to do.

I get Alderson’s hesitation with Reyes.  No one doubts the skill, but the injury history gives prospective employers pause and makes Reyes’ suitors that much smaller.  Marlins have been effectively ambitious this offseason finally inking a player with some star power to let baseball know they are serious, in Heath Bell who was given a 3 year deal worth $27 million which is a lot for a 34 year old closer.  That gives everyone but the Mets an effective end of game solution.  The Braves have Craig Kimbrel who won the Rookie of the Year award in the NL.  The Phillies signed Papelbon.  The Nationals have young Drew Storen ready to go.  So the Mets are looking to add a prominent closer themselves without breaking the bank given their other litany of needs which begs the question: if you’re not going to go after Reyes, why not turn your attention elsewhere and spend that 16-20 million you had slotted for Jose on the relief market and mid level starter market?

The interest in Reyes is real but the Mets have two budgets for the upcoming season: one that HAS Reyes on board and another that doesn’t have Reyes on board.  The on that has Reyes on board ranges from $100-110 million and one can only figure that the one that doesn’t include Reyes is somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million cheaper.  So the Mets won’t just spend the money to spend it and Alderson is cautiously spending the money because let’s face it, without Reyes or any kind of prominent free agent signing, the Mets will have a much lower draw at CitiField effectively eliminating any chance of turning a profit for the year.

Unless the Mets miraculously turn competitive.  Which isn’t impossible but highly improbable given the state of the other teams in the division and the current state of the Mets.

My prediction on Reyes?  He resigns with the Mets for 5 years and $95 million with a 6th year option based on games played over the final two guaranteed years.  Most fans have this idea that the Mets won’t spend but I don’t think the Wilpons are that frugal and that stupid.  They are stupid but not cheap.  They will spend and they know the ramifications of trying to field a Reyes-less team in 2012 to their bottom line.  Alderson and Co. know the skill set of Reyes and what he means to the franchise.  The fan base is almost unanimous that they want him back.  But at an effective price.  I think the fanbase more is about the rebuilding process and know that any exorbitant price tag given the state of the franchise’s finances would be crippling to any long term repairs the Mets hope to do.  Let’s be honest, we don’t know how much the bill will be on the Madoff case but reports indicate that it won’t be as high as one wished   thought.  Either way, the Mets will need all available space to sign their superstars if it is indeed their wish.  Let’s say Reyes leaves, David Wright will most certainly be discussed and presented as a carrot for any team to make deals but given his status being lowered, they won’t get back what they hope.  I think the Mets wait till the trade deadline so that with the new changes to CitiField can help build back up Wright’s status and then trade him.

Though, in either scenario, I think the Mets should trade Wright.  Not only for the Mets, but for Wright.  I admit he’s a very good player but he’s NOT a superstar and the Mets have treated him as such while other teams have looked at his last three years and seen a lower tier player.  Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals is a better defensive AND offensive player and has been for the last two years at the very least.

Here’s hoping that Reyes decides to take a hometown discount.

Now, on to Sunday’s picks:

BILLS (-2) over Titans-  This is pretty much must win territory for Buffalo.  The Bills, now looking at their schedule again with clarity provided for us by the last few weeks of action, face a pretty tough schedule.  Where once the Chargers and Patriots were looking like the toughest tests on the schedule, the Chargers look like they have given up on the season and Norv Turner, and the Patriots may basically be resting their starters by Week 17 .  The Dolphins are competitive and nobody’s patsies and the Broncos are Tebow’s Team and look virtually unbeatable.

BEARS (-7) over Chiefs-  I’m not saying that this is a slam dunk.  The Chiefs CAN play as evidenced by their near upset win over the Steelers who looked old on Sunday night.  But unless Caleb Hanie plays mistake free football the Bears season is effectively over.  Which brings me to the QB carousel that took place this week and left one very famous name without a seat.  Donovan McNabb is no longer an employed member of the NFL.  Its a sad ending to a very good career which had its ups and downs.  Mostly, I think he benefited just as much as he faltered by playing in a demanding market like Philly.  McNabb has such thick skin that after being released by the Vikings citing his lack of a work ethic and weight gain, he was marketing himself as a STARTER for any franchise who wanted him.  A STARTER.  This is a guy who was traded IN DIVISION by the coach who constantly made excuses for him and was shown the door by an organization so messed up and screwed up in the head like the Redskins that he was replaced early in the season by a rookie who nobody expected to sniff the Metrodome turf.  I couldn’t believe how quickly he fell out of grace and now out of touch with his own ability.  McNabb’s biggest liability at this point is what made him famous in Philly: his unquestioning belief in himself.  As much as TO loves him some me, McNabb really loves him some me and not being picked up on waivers and TO’s inability to get anyone to even bother showing up for a private workout is fitting for two players who once were considered elite at their position yet many had lingering questions about their make up.

Oakland (+2) over DOLPHINS-  I think this game is going to be fantastic.  No lies.  I have to admit that trading two number one picks for Carson Palmer in my mind STILL isn’t a defensible trade but he’s been paying off these last few weeks and IF and WHEN Run DMC joins the fold the Raiders could end up being a very dangerous team moving forward.  Teams are now beginning to respect the pass which is opening up lanes for their rushing attack.  Michael Bush is lining up a very nice pay day for him next year.

Bengals (+6.5) over STEELERS-  How old did the Steelers look as compared to the hyped up KC Chiefs who field one of the youngest teams in the league?  Pitt’s moxie and veteran know how to pull out the W helped them but the Bengals are much more talented and with a full game from AJ Green should easily beat the Steelers IN Pittsburgh.

Ravens (-7) over BROWNS-  Classic let down game for the Ravens considering their season.  The one remaining question they have left to answer is if they can maintain their level no matter the competition.  That question must be answered with a win today.  MUST.

Jets (-3) over REDSKINS-  This is closer than many people think but I see a HUGE win for the Jets.  I mean a dominating performance.  I smell it coming.

Falcons (-1.5) over TEXANS-  Would’ve been a good game had even Matt Leinart played.  But some people love TJ Yates and believe he will be their starting QB moving forward and some are even giving him a small chance at Tom Bradying the Texans this year to a Super Bowl.  Hold your horses.  The defense has playmakers and the offense getting Andre Johnson back is a huge plus but let’s hold your horses and let them play today’s game and then we’ll fast lane them into the Super Bowl.

Bucs (-2) over PANTHERS-  Cam needs a strong finish to the season to secure that once locked up Offensive Rookie of the Year award he had giftwrapped back in September.  Last week was a good start in beating a Colts team he HAD to beat.  But looking at his stats they tell you something.  Since throwing for 422, 432 and 374 in three out of his first four games in the NFL, Cam doesn’t have a single 300 yard passing game since and only thrown north of 250 three times only one resulting in a win.  Its when he’s thrown for less than 220 (158 and 208) when he’s won so there’s that to consider for Ron Rivera and co as they move forward with Cam’s progression.  I wish ONCE in a team’s life that they unleashed a QB like the Falcons did Michael Vick and Eagles did until he got injured.  He puts not only defenses in such a bad way, but also referees who have problems knowing when to call late hit penalties and can sometimes get confused and make a huge call that can tilt the game in the team’s favor.  Cam has one thing going for him that Vick never had: he’s built like a tank.  Vick is injury prone not because of his style but because he’s built like a receiver.  Not Desean Jackson skinny but enough where one good pop as he’s going full speed can really hurt him.  Cam loves contact and can bring the lumber as grown folk would say.  If the Carolina offensive coaches can devise a way to have Cam throw 20-25 times and run 8-12 times and then run the football with their two headed beast at running back HOW is that a bad thing?  Some of you will say well Swith, isn’t that what they are doing already?  Yes.  But their defense doesn’t stop anyone.  I’m saying, don’t start making Cam chuck the ball.  Stick to the plan.  Stubbornly if you have to.  In his first year of development you have to let Cam know that the game plan that the coaches have set up is the right way to go and should NEVER be abandoned.  Teams that have trust and faith in their coaching staff to put them in the right place always wind up winning games.  Faith and patience go a long way in the NFL.  Look at the Super Bowl run the Giants made in 2007 and then their first 11 games of 2008.  They stubbornly stayed with the running game even when teams were beating them and they always won because they forcefully displayed their will against their opponents.  That’s what winning teams do: impose their wills on other teams.

PATRIOTS (-20) over Colts-  Two more reasons that Peyton Manning should get some MVP consideration this year: this outrageous line and the fact that NBC chucked this game so far out of its rotation as quickly as it could because Peyton wasn’t playing that they almost tripped over themselves getting to the league office to try and get Giants/Packers (Fox protected it) or Lions and Saints which will now be flexed into Sunday Night.  By the way, here’s a theory for all you conspiracy nuts:  Have you noticed the crappy schedule ESPN got this year for their Monday Night Package?  It appears ex- ESPN chief was in charge of not only giving NBC its incredibly lucrative flex scheduling deal but also giving ESPN its latest which is not to say that its payback for his fall, but let’s just say its kind of dicey the way it all went down.

SAINTS (-9) over Lions-  Speaking of which, the Saints looked unstoppable on Monday night but that’s because the Giants defense were looking fifty different directions and never knew where to line up or where to go.  They were a hot mess the whole evening and trust me, the Saints didn’t do them any favors with the way they ran up the score.  That last touchdown was meant to send a message and let’s be honest, anyone who is crying about how disgraceful and unsportsmanlike it was needs to chill.  If you can’t STOP a team from scoring then get somebody who can.  The Saints were right to never take the foot off the pedal.  That mentality will be the ONLY thing that helps them beat the Packers if and when they meet again down the road in the playoffs.

As it relates to the Lions and mainly Ndamukong Suh.  Look, he had a dirty play which reminded NFL fans of his earlier shady plays.  Then his post game press conference was NOT an apology I don’t care WHAT he says.  Does he need counseling?  No.  He lets his emotions show during games which is a good thing.  BUT, this young man’s recent car crash shows that there is a very dizzying pattern that seems to be playing out.  The Lions need someone to talk to him.  They were IN that game against the Packers until Suh stepped on that Packer line man and then the Pack ran away with that game.  They need Suh long term to be the rock and the NFL wants Suh to be a prominent wheel in its promotional cog.  There’s a lot at stake and the NFL hopes that the Lions will take care of it.

Also is Roger Goodell trying to get a consulting job on the side? First he advises Michael Vick where to go and now he advises Suh to appeal?  Even though his appeal magically met earlier in the week and he lost it making him ineligible to play against the Saints after some furor broke out about the commissioner’s shady appeal for Suh to do so.  Hmmm.  You would think his 10 million salary would be enough, no?

Broncos (-1) over VIKINGS-  This game is a lot closer now that Von Miller is a game time decision.  With no AP though, I can’t give the Vikes an edge here and no matter what, you can’t go against Tebow right?

49ers (-13) over Rams-  Finally, a team that plays consistently across the board.  I know they will show up against the Rams who have been playing SLIGHTLY better these last few weeks.

Cowboys (-4.5) over CARDS-  You know that Patrick Peterson touchdown is coming.  You can feel it like I can, can’t you?

Packers (-6) over GIANTS-  IF the team that wore the Giants uniforms the last two weeks against Philly and the Saints show up, forget about this game and the season.  Those last two Cowboy games are for naught.  IF the Giants show some fight, and this is basically Custer’s last stand here for the G-Men, then they have a shot.  They certainly have the offense, with Bradshaw back, to score points.

Chargers (-3) over JAGUARS-  Barely.

Enjoy Week 13!

 

 

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