With today being another one of those unofficial national holidays according ONLY to us warped, out-of-touch sports fans, I thought it would be helpful to address five concerns our local ballclubs have going into this season.
This isn’t a final list of problems or some list meant to read into the future of the two teams, but let’s just say there is a lot of unresolved business heading into the 2011 season for BOTH the Yankees and Mets.
Because the Yankees face a helluva lot less drama I’m going to start with them.
Also, understand that the order is NOT based on importance.
1. Core Four being…replaced?
Yankee fans have long dreaded the day that this would happen but more than any season it has become crystalized: replacements for the Core Four are here. Well, technically its three now that Andy Pettite has retired. But the Yankees have two young pitchers who are capable of replacing the wily veteran though I wonder how effective they will be in the immediate future.
Jesus Montero, is somewhere in every Top 5 prospect list. He’s projected to be a 30 homer, 100 RBI guy that hits for average but can’t play defense which was Posada’s flaw. But already the Yankees have told Posada that he should concentrate on being a DH. The Yankees have a good supply of defensive catchers they can use if they need someone back there.
Speaking of changing positions, the Yankees have already begun discussions on moving Derek Jeter to centerfield to make room for Eduardo Nunes. Nunes is the shortstop the Yankees wouldn’t part with in their failed attempt at trading for Cliff Lee. I wonder how insane all those defensive stat geeks will get when they bring out their plus/minus projections for Derek Jeter the centerfielder?
One doesn’t give out $30 something million to a set up man unless its a clear indication that a succession plan has been put into place. Mariano Rivera however is the ultimate pro so I see no chance of him causing problems with Rafael Soriano. Though I can’t imagine they were thrilled to hear Mariano having contract talks with the Red Sox.
Seems to me the Yankees have made it a priority to spell out the next group of stars that will replace the legends of yet another great Yankee generation. I just wonder if these guys will appreciate being shown the door before they have decided its time to leave.
2. No Cliff Lee. No Andy Pettite. No problem?
No matter what the spin is during introductory press conferences let’s be real: its spring training its all peachy keen. But this will be a big issue as the season plays itself out especially if the rotation stays as presently constructed. Who knows what to expect from A.J. Burnett? Phil Hughes doesn’t have a long enough resume to just assume that he will keep pitching at the level he did last year. There’s a chance that Bartolo Colon will make this rotation which would be incredible when considering that he essentially is plan B for not getting Cliff Lee. Then there’s Joba Chamberlain who has had his growth as a pitcher permanently stunted by his constant movement from the bullpen to the rotation.
The only person you can rely on to have a big year is C.C. Sabathia who now has back tracked his previous comments of playing out his 7 year $161 million deal and may opt out of the deal and force the Yankees into paying him even more money in a deal that would keep him in pinstripes for “8 to 10 more years” as he has been quoted as saying he would like to pitch.
The rotation will be a concern if C.C. leaves which brings us to…
3. Jesus Montero: future Yankee star or trade bait?
After losing out on Cliff Lee, the Yankees may end up ace-less after 2012 when, if every reporter is reading the signals right, C.C. Sabathia will opt out of his contract and perhaps leave to play elsewhere. Sabathia was probably the only person in the Bronx who rejoiced when Lee didn’t sign with the Yankees because it now gives him leverage to ask for more money. Add into the fact that the best free agent pitcher in next years market will be Mark Buerhle, the Yankees will be hard pressed to find solutions there unless they explore the trade market where a potential ace may be available.
According to rumors coming from Minneapolis, Francisco Liriano may become available, and I have a feeling (note sarcasm) they will approach this a bit differently than the Johan Santana trade. It will most certainly cost Jesus Montero and who knows what else. Will the rotation issues force the Yankees into using their best prospect in a deal to plug a major hole? Should be interesting.
4. Who are Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances?
If the Yankees are correct, they are future aces in the Yankee system honing their craft just in time. Three of the top 5 prospects in the system are catchers but the other two are these young guns who could be the key to how they approach their pitching problems. If they show a continuing trend upward I wonder how Cashman will respond to CC’s contract opt out. Their progress this season will go a long way in future organizational decisions.
5. A-Rod.
Either he needs to get back with Kate Hudson who apparently also helped Muse win a Grammy (why havent the Mets made David Wright go after her? Seriously?), or he just needs to have a bounceback year. I think the latter is the liklier outcome but remember that he’s on the wrong side of 30 and coming off a hip condition which will make his range progressively worse at 3B. Eventually he will be a full time DH but this year his health will be monitored closely. If he continues trending downward it will be interesting to see how they approach him about full time DH’ing once Posada’s contract ends. Boy that 10 year contract will feel like a prison sentence.
Now that we are done with the Nickelodeon type drama of the Yankees its time to move on to the TNT of drama filled teams: the New York Mets. Here are 5 questions heading into next season for the Metropolitans in no particular order:
1. Beltran and Reyes’ future-
This is a case of long term and short term futures. The first half will be crucial for both of these players.
Beltran will likely have to take a huge paycut to stay in New York in light of recent events. If he plays well, the Mets will like to trade him but I doubt they will find a team willing to pay the price in prospects for what will likely be a half year rental. I see the Mets holding on to Beltran and recouping 2 first round picks from him.
Reyes on the other hand is the one I see getting dealt. He is the biggest chip the Mets have and its more than likely that this front office will look to deal him away because of the prospects he will be able to land them. The scarcity of elite shortstops with the tools Reyes has will make him a commodity and I can’t see this front office’s unwillingness to sign Reyes to a long term contract now (when his value would be lower due to some down years) as anything other than a sign that they will look to deal him for the best possible haul.
If they do trade him, the hope is that the front office knows what its getting in return. This year will be interesting- especially the first half. There are several reasons to hope these two get off to strong starts.
2. Madoff-
So many questions remain since the contents of the Madoff trust’s lawsuit against the Wilpon’s were revealed. One thing is clear for me: the Wilpons knew something was up with this guy. I’m not implying they were in on it, but to plead ignorance is stupid and won’t hold up. The Mets will eventually be up for sale and its anyone’s guess who will wind up with them.
What we do know is that next years financial flexibility that Sandy Alderson pointed to may not be there thanks to the mess they are currently in. What I do know is that the Mets will have to find a way to play through the distraction and it leads me to the next concern/question for 2011
3. How will the new manager and GM handle their roles?
Terry Collins was hired over Wally Backman who was the clear cut fan favorite and remains in the system eager for an opportunity to succeed Collins should he slip. The big worry about Collins was his temperment and ability to relate to players and it will be interesting to see if he’s lost touch with that after being out of the major league coaching ranks for a decade.
Sandy Alderson was brought in, in hindsight I suppose, as a cleaner of messes. He did so in San Diego with the Padres and in Dominican Republic with the corruption of the academies there. He now faces his most high profile mess to clean up and its unclear whether he was sent with a specific directive from the Commissioner’s office or he actually thought he would get to play GM with a bigger bank account. Whatever the case is, his skills will be put to the test.
Every move will be crucial as the Mets now seemingly will have very little of the $60 million coming off the books to reinvest. So the Mets will have to be smart with how they spend their payroll as long as the drama with the Wilpons is unresolved. If the Mets dont resolve this ownership issue expect more Chris Capuano and Chris Young signings. Lucky for Met fans Sandy Alderson has plenty of experience dealing with limited resources.
4. When Opening Day comes who will be on the team?
Its a natural question to ponder since there are two names that Met fans won’t miss all that much if they were left without a roster spot come Opening Day. Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo are approaching epic levels of disdain and do you blame them? These were two guys who received contracts that were universally hated the moment it was announced and basically the worst case scenario played out. Every four pitch walk and every weak grounder resulting in a double play built the vitriol that exists today.
If they were not to come to camp, they would fall under the “addition by subtraction” principle.
But there is one other figure that looms large and that is Johan Santana who for the third consecutive year had offseason surgery to repair something in his throwing arm. When he will come back. What condition he will come back in. How long it will take for him to get into competitive shape are all questions that have yet to be answered and the longer it takes to get a timetable for these things, the worse it will be for Met fans who already have such little to look forward to this year.
If I had to guess right now, I’d say Santana comes back in August. Gets into playing shape in September and hopefully pitches in some very meaningful games during that month. Best case scenario for the Mets? They are by some miracle in contention in August and instead of making the major deal to swing for a pitcher they will be getting their ace back in time for the stretch run which would be great. Of course that’s absolutely best case scenario.
5. Will young guys step up?
Jon Niese, Josh Thole, Ike Davis, Dillon Gee, Bobby Parnell, are all pretty much guaranteed roster spots and will be counted on to take that next step in their development. Niese I think has the opportunity to be a good number 2 starter thanks to that curveball which he rarely uses. Pitching coach Dan Warthen got his contract renewed because of the pitching staff’s success last season despite a dismal overall record. Dillon Gee won’t blow anyone away with his stuff but his guile and toughness will be needed to navigate out of that 5 hole. Bobby Parnell’s success will be counted upon greatly next season when you remember that a $17.5 million option for next year in K-Rod’s contract automatically kicks in if he appears in 55 games. If Parnell takes that next step then the Mets will have a legitimate reason for keeping K-Rod on the bench so that option doesn’t kick in. In fact, thanks to Madoff, it may not even matter if Parnell is good or not- he will definitely see more action as the year moves along.
Ike Davis was the breakout rookie for the Mets and depending on how well Bay snaps out of last year’s funk and Wright comes back and Beltran returns to form, the Mets could have a formidable heart of the line up rife with power. Davis suffered through the usual rookie spell where he wasn’t lining up the breaking balls. He made adjustments at the end of the season to bump his average up from .246 to .264. Hopefully Davis keeps trending upwards.
Five rookies who are probably going to see the light of day during September call ups:
Jenrry Mejia- Dan Warthen believes that Mejia could be an elite closer. Scouts think that Mejia projects as a front line starter. Either way, the hope here is that he doesn’t get screwed up like this guy.
Lucas Duda & Kirk Nieuwenheis- I would love for Captain Kirk to make it to the majors if for nothing other than his nickname but here’s what I know about this guy: he’s a winner. His entire life he’s won. He was a former football quarterback which tells me that the mental aspect of the game won’t be a problem. He plays hard but because of his lack of range and mobility most people find it difficult to put him at one position. He deserves a legitimate shot at the majors. Duda played well for the Mets during his call up and will probably see some time again. He even has the opportunity to break camp with the Mets and come up north but it depends on how he plays during Spring Training.
I grouped them together because they feel and look like the same player.
Reese Havens- He’s got a plus bat but he’s average in the field. Frankly I could care less. I need him to stay healthy. He’s the classic what if proposition for Met prospects “what if he were healthy?” Most would agree that he would be the starting 2b for the Mets come opening day. That’s how good people think he can be but unfortunately at bats are hard to come by when you’re injured all the time.
Fernando Martinez- Listen, he’s 22 so its not out of the realm of possibility that the guy could make 2011 his coming out party. Well let’s face it, at some point he’ll be 25 and he’ll be old news and not worth all the hassle. Maybe its the pressure of living up to all the high standards that were put on him from the moment he hit homeruns in Shea Stadium when he was 16.
The Mets youngsters will play a major role in shaping how this year plays out. There are a lot of what ifs but if you can’t be optimistic during Spring Training, when can you?
I’m ready for baseball.
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