Category Archives: Mets

January 10, 2021 · 5:16 pm

Moving forward for the Mets

If you haven’t read my last piece about the the Lindor/Cookie trade read it here.

I had some more thoughts about it so I thought I’d just answer those questions with a fake mailbag so let’s go

Steve from Great Neck writes:
What are our options for signing him and what do you think it will take to get it done?

Steve, thanks for the question. There are a few things to consider and I’ll do my best to lay out all of the important factors here:

A. Do the Mets HAVE to sign him before the season? No. But as Sandy alluded to in the press conference they made the trade with the understanding that he’s on a one year deal (negating the value of prospect return) but with optimism that when team brass reach out to his agents they can work something out long term.

And they should be confident. They have the richest owner in baseball and a man who made a ton of money in 2020 while all of us were making Tik Toks. They can be as aggressive as they want and the assumption is that they will work something out prior to Spring Training because its in the best interest of the team to know where they stand with him contractually and be certain of the price tag moving forward because they have a few other extensions with homegrown players like Noah Syndegaard and Michael Conforto to work out as well.

B. Is it in the best interest of both parties to sign him before the season? Yes. Lindor and his agents understand the current financial economy of baseball. Covid has for sure taken some bite out of the financial pie and it will be interesting to see how they use that in the CBA talks coming up after the conclusion of the 2021 season. Lindor knows the Mets and Steve Cohen want to make a splash and he can use that excitement to negotiate in good faith.

Since Lindor has come into the league he has been one of the most charismatic and best two players in the game. The notion that he would have to prove he can play in NY is silly. Besides, the Mets aren’t paying for past production for a 27 year old, they are paying for the player he will be, a superstar two way shortstop who can hit in 3 hole and produce like few can entering his prime. This is his time to get the $30M+ extension for sure.

For the Mets its easy to see why its in their best interest. There’s cost certainty moving forward so they can move on to extensions for Thor and Conforto but there’s also the need to go all the way with Cohen’s first splash. Not completing an extension would make this deal feel incomplete and would remove some of the excitement and put Mets fans right back into the air of despair they constantly seem to be in.

But now there are rumors that the Padres are moving towards extending Tatis Jr. If that’s true it would set the market for Lindor and the other shortstops in the 2021 class. The Mets have done a good job until now of keeping their cards close to their vest, so one has to wonder if the Mets who denied having a period to negotiate a long term contract in trade talks, will try to engage Lindor’s agent sooner than a few weeks.

As for what will get it done? My prediction is that it will be an 8 year $256M deal with an opt out after year 4 so he can try and cash out again. That gives him a better annual per year salary than Machado and would allow him to re-enter the free agent market when presumably the sport of baseball and the economy will have recovered from CoVid.

George from Connecticut writes: What are the chances that the Mets go after Springer? His two way defense/offense will push this team over the hump as favorites in the NL East at the minimum right?

George, thanks for the question and there’s no doubt Springer is a proven commodity not only in the regular season but most importantly in the postseason which the Mets and its fanbase have to be dreaming about with the recent moves they’ve made. But the financial part of this is where it gets dicey.

The Mets and especially Cohen, have made it clear they are hesitant to pay big money for guys who are 30+ because as history tells us those contracts end up biting the team in the butt. So its hard to see the Mets paying Springer’s reported asking price of $150M.

But one of Jared Porter’s key talking points from Thursday’s press conference to announce the deal for Lindor was that they will be creative and wait out the market. It has to be tough for Springer’s agents to hear because it likely meant that any offer the Mets may have made the Mets won’t likely go above that number so Springer has to be wary. He’s 31, so taking a one year deal is risky as owners are likely to cry poor again next year since its reasonable to assume that a portion of this season will be played without any fans in most states.

So Porter and the Mets will wait Springer out and can afford to do so with this trade. The Mets don’t desperately need to add more offense to a team that was 13th last year in runs per game and that was with the team being dead last in all of baseball with runners left in scoring position. To that lineup you just added one of the best run producers in baseball. The Mets have regained leverage to allow Springer to walk and there may be some good to spread the wealth to add another starter to the mix to round out the rotation or add elsewhere.

If I had to guess I’m guessing despite it all Springer will be a Toronto Blue Jay and that it will be announced next week.

Kris from Chicago writes: Is 3B a real priority for the Mets that it makes a Kris Bryant trade something they should actually pursue?

Kris! Great question and curious you spell your name that way too! Run scoring and run prevention is high on the list of priorities for the Mets. Their 3b options are Jeff McNeil, JD Davis and Luis Guillorme. Let’s remove Jeff McNiel who will likely play 2b full time with Guillorme coming in to spell him at times. So right now its either JD Davis or Luis Guillorme. Davis is a bat first guy and Sandy and Jared made it a point to talk up the fact that they need to work on Davis to make him a better defender and the we have a guy by the name of Luis Guillorme” wasn’t a full on stamp of approval for Luis either so its fair to say that 3b is an area of concern defensively for the Mets.

So it makes sense that the Mets are in the market for a 3B. There was talk about the Mets engaging Seattle about Kyle Seager and defensively that makes sense as he was 3rd in UZR ( 6.9) in all of baseball in 2019 before taking a slip to 11th with a -0.4 rating in 2020. But Jerry DiPoto hung up when he realized he wasn’t talking to Brodie.

The Mets were reportedly talking to the Cubs re: Bryant but per Andy Martino of SNY those talks ended weeks ago and per the timeline the Mets moved on to Lindor. Bryant is also entering his walk year and due to make $19M. Per Mike Puma the Cubs were interested in Francisco Alvarez but if the Mets were unwilling to include him in a deal for Lindor, it seems highly unlikely they would offer him up for an inferior player. My prediction is that the Nats make a run at him but watch for the Braves who if the DH doesn’t come to the NL could view Bryant as their offensive spark plug they pay on a one year deal. They have the deep prospect capital to get it done.

There’s pie in the sky re: Arenado but that would be overly indulgent and make no sense since its not a secret that should the Dodgers not trade for Arenado, he will exercise his opt out and try to work out a deal with them next year which is why the Dodgers are playing hardball with their current 3B Justin Turner who wants a 4 year deal.

So where do the Mets turn to for 3B defense? Its clear the Mets want Davis’ bat in the line up but they are concerned what happens to them defensively when he does play there as they made it clear they don’t want him or Dom to see LF extensively next year. My guess is that they keep Davis and Guillorme and resist temptation to trade more prospects for short term help.

Jared from Flushing writes do the Mets go bullpen or get more starter depth?

Excellent question Jared. Honestly? I think they go both. I can see them going after a Collin McHugh over a Corey Kluber or James Paxton since it would cost less because I think they will go after a Hand/Hendriks to overhaul the bullpen. In the end I think the Mets get Hand as they were open about their interest in him since Sandy’s initial press conference. He’s a lefty and has had incredible numbers and would be an incredible weapon. I can also see them reuniting with Justin Wilson if Hand doesn’t pan out as Wilson had some great numbers with the Mets.

Porter and Sandy talked about depth and the need for more pitching. So it makes sense that they would be proactive on that market but again the benefit of the Lindor/Carrasco trade is that they don’t have to be desperate about it. They can sit back and let the market flesh itself out. Even better news for Mets fans is that they are the market. Every agent will try to engage the Mets or remain in their orbit hoping the Mets outbid other teams for their clients services. With the Mets looking like a contender on paper, don’t underestimate guys like Kluber or Paxton signing on for less to ride the wave but both would sign on for one year coming off injury.

Noah and Michael from Midtown, NY ask what’s the latest on a Conforto and Syndegaard extension?

Right now mum is the word but so was word last week this time before the new Mets unleashed the Lindor trade on the world. Things can escalate quickly but the date to look at for both is February 1. That’s the arbitration hearing deadline and while the Mets did agree with Thor on a $9.7M salary for 2021 (which on a pro-rated salary was the same as his 2020 salary) the Mets may want to see how Thor comes back in 2021 before signing him to an extension.

But you have to believe Conforto is the likelier candidate to see a contract worked out before Spring Training.

Cohen and Sandy talked about the need to lock up homegrown talent and it must have been music to Scott Boras’ ears. Boras is notorious for taking his clients to free agency, dropping the personalized to player binder on team’s tables and negotiating off that to get the very best deal for his clients. But Conforto’s comments from this MLB.com article suggest that he would be open to extension talks before entering free agency especially if he felt like the Mets offer something reasonable:

“Everyone always says that Scott is a big free-agency guy and he’s a big fan of that, but Scott … is obviously going to give me the best advice that he feels he has for me as a player and for my career,” Conforto said in February. “Ultimately, it’s my decision. I think it’s somewhat of a misconception about Scott and his clients. He wants what’s best for us. He’s going to give us his best advice. But at the end of the day, he’ll tell you, ‘It’s my client’s decision.’”

Conforto plays corner OF and last year made some refinements to his approach to really open up his game. He’s good for 25+ HR’s and 80 RBI’s with a .260 average every year and if you believe his production from last year was no fluke then he’s likely entering hte prime of his career having made the adjustments that will see his numbers jump. Especially hitting in this lineup with Lindor in it you would assume Conforto gets more opportunities to produce runs which would only make Boras’ binder thicker and ask larger.

My prediction? The Mets get Conforto to sign for 5 years with an option for a 6th year based on qualifiers for a $21M year average.

Joel from Westchester writes what happens to the Mets long term if they just sign everybody?

Joel, you must be referring to this article Joel Sherman of the Post wrote re: contracts not being done in a vacuum for the Mets. Its true. The Lindor and Conforto extensions will draw a line in teh sand on future salary commitments especially if the Mets don’t have enough reinforcements in the pipeline to refill the roster at minimal expense.

Cohen spoke about building a team like the Dodgers. They are undoubtedly the best team in baseball and have a top 10 farm system. The Yankees are like that too. That’s the end goal for Cohen.

But Joel raises some important concerns regarding future roster construction issues that can come with handing out multi-year extensions for all of these players. But that’s where Porter and Zack Scott come into play. They were brought in for their abilities to identify players that could play at minimal expense to the payroll. Its easy to identify Lindor as someone to acquire.

This is why the call to build depth isn’t just GM talk from Jared Porter. While the $210M competitive tax isn’t a line the Mets can’t cross, it would have to be justified especially in year one of the Cohen experience.

I did a less than scientific payroll experiment for 2022. Per Spotrac, the Mets have $68M committed for 2022. Let’s say we sign Lindor and Conforto to the extensions I suggested above, that means $32M for Lindor and $21M for Conforto that means $53M. Let’s assume some generous raises (note I’m not an expert so this is a likely bad estimate) for arbitration and pre arbitration candidates and that means another $45M in salary commitments.

So that means our payroll is now at $166M. If the competitive tax remains at $210M that means we have $44M to get to the competitive tax and that’s assuming Mets don’t cross the tax this year. So they may have even more to spend. Not a bad spot to be in but will require some forward thinking trades to get depth and some below market deals. This is where Zack Scott and Jared Porter will be judged. While there’s plenty of work to be done, especially on the SP depth, there’s reason to believe that if the top 6 prospects take steps forward the Mets can be really dangerous.


Thanks for all the fake mail and let’s keep it coming. The Mets have a pretty awesome future and let’s take this in before the team takes the field for 2021 that this season will be exciting!

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January 8, 2021 · 6:19 pm

Cookie, Frankie and the Mets!

I was getting into my car with my dad in the passenger seat, and two annoyed kids who just went to the pediatrician’s office complaining in the back seat when I removed my phone from my back pocket before sitting down. By force of habit I looked at the screen when I saw the alert from Jeff Passan:

I reflexively pressed hard on my brake. The car was in park.

My father concerned by my expression asked if everything was ok. “Yes” I said comically happy, “everything is great!”

Those are words I wouldn’t have used a year ago after it was becoming painfully clear that Steve Cohen may not end up owning the team. But a lot has changed over the past year. And this being one of them. To take from Ken Rosenthal’s latest story title “The Mets are a big-market bully again”.

Here is the deal:

As Sandy Alderson said in his press conference to announce the trade yesterday “it came at a signficant cost”. The Mets traded away some of their infield depth in Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez and some of their prospect depth in Josh Wolf and Isiah Greene but got back in return a superstar shortstop and a starting pitcher locked in for 3 years at a team friendly rate.

To say the Mets got the better end is not scratching the surface on what this move does to the franchise. Here’s a few thoughts I had while listening to Sandy Alderson (Team President) and Jared Porter (General Manager) during yesterday’s press conference to formally announce the trade:

NOBODY knew this deal was coming- In years past, the Mets leaked like a bucket full of water with holes. Not anymore. This is another reminder that it is no longer business-as-usual in Flushing. This regime kept this under wraps until the deal was complete and kudos to them for being able to do so.

Sandy said that this deal had been in the works since the beginning of the offseason and went from just Lindor to including Carrasco. He also mentioned that while he was averse to trading away from a thin prospect system, the ability to get Lindor and a top flight SP without sacrificing the top five or six prospects in the system was an opportunity the team couldn’t pass up.

The cost of acquisition was high- Make no mistake, the Mets traded away not one but two starting caliber shortstops with Amed Rosario estimated to earn around $2.2M per Spotrac in his first year of arbitration and two more arbitration years and Andres Gimenez two years away from arbitration and total 5 years of cost controlled service time. They also gave up two guys with untapped potential in Wolf and Greene, who were in the bottom part of a system that’s ranked around 20 in most publications eyes.

Questions came fast and furious about what this means for the rest of the infield depth and Sandy was quick to point out Luis Guillorme still existed who is an excellent defensive IF and Jeff McNeil has some versatility to play second and third but the real questions were about third base.

Jared Porter pointed out that the major league developmental team would work with JD Davis to improve his defensive ability so he could offer more value at 3B but in answering a question about what’s next he did say that they were looking for good defensive players with versatility to play multiple positions. So its not clear yet what the Mets plan on doing at 3B or if Davis is a permanent solution but it bears watching how they deploy Davis if his defense doesn’t improve. Perhaps its a pipe dream but there are rumblings that the Mets checked in on Kris Bryant. But given the backlash from everyone on the Darvish trade the Cubs may be hesitant to give up Bryant for nothing despite him also being a year out from free agency.

Acquisition over cost- This quote keeps coming to mind and once again drew focus for me when Sandy answered questions about Lindor’s signability. One of the biggest drawbacks of the former ownership group were their shyness to dip their toes into the deep waters of big time free agency thanks to their dabbling in Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Those restrictions clearly do not apply to Steve Cohen who promised Mets fans that they would spend when appropriate.

This seems appropriate. Many throughout baseball expect the Mets and Lindor to discuss a contract extension and for an agreement to happen prior to the season that will set the market for next year’s big SS class which will include Corey Seager (if this Lindor trade and signing don’t exacerbate urgency from the Dodgers to engage him as well), Trevor Story (who won’t be affected by the Nolan Arenado trade rumblings) and Javier Baez (you get the feeling the Cubs will be shedding him as well soon).

But Sandy spoke with optimism that while the return was based on Lindor being a player signed to one year, and the fact that the Mets were taking on all of Carrasco’s future salary commitment (two years at $24M and a vesting option for a third year at $14M) that they didn’t require a period to negotiate with Lindor’s agent. That’s the confidence an owner flush with cash can bring. The fact is they leveraged that into a lesser return to the Indians although the return the Indians got for both was fair in most player evaluation’s eyes. Notice I didn’t say equal.

Speaking of cost, does this mean the Mets are out on other big named free agents? Probably not- I need to be completely honest here- I can’t see the Mets signing Springer now unless the Mets either get creative to finesse some salary off the books, and Porter consistently said that they would be opportunistic and creative to make the team better, or if Springer takes less than we all think.

But Sandy made it clear that while the $210M Luxury tax threshold is an important line of demarcation, it isn’t a line that he has been told he can’t cross. Again expressing ownership’s new outlook on being competitive and being willing to pay the price when necessary. The Mets won’t spend like drunken sailors but it all depends on how drunk they get amirite?

Sandy’s “appetite for more talent” really drives home the point that the Mets are operating under a new ideal. This team has a few more questions to address like how they will address their defense in centerfield, what to do about the back up catching position, how else to beef up their bullpen. Porter made it clear when he said what Mets fans have said all along- there’s always a need for pitching. More pitching. So it will be interesting to see how the Mets address their CF position but this next question is the more pressing concern.

How is the lack of clarity on the DH affecting the Mets in free agency? There likely won’t be an answer for another few weeks which will leave guys like Marcell Ozuna available as the offseason goes on so when Sandy and Jared say that the market will dictate how they proceed- he’s right. But it affects the Mets pursuit of Springer and Jackie Bradley Jr if it forces them to choose between Nimmo and Dom Smith. Nimmo has the longer track record in terms of productivity offensively but he’s miscast as a CF just like Dom Smith is miscast as a corner OF. In an ideal world, Dom is the Mets 1B/DH and so is Pete Alonso and the Mets sign Springer/or JBJ moving Nimmo to a corner OF spot.

But MLB has dragged its feet on the DH situation and while the feeling is that in the next CBA that discussion will resolve itself, the reality is that the Mets can’t really move confidently forward without knowing where baseball stands on the issue in 2021. The inclusion of the DH in 2020 felt like a concession to players to get a deal done but for whatever reason despite its success MLB won’t resolve that issue just yet.

In the new reality however, the Mets can spend on CF and hope that the issue of the DH resolves itself in the Mets favor. And Sandy again reiterated that it is in the Mets best interest that the DH comes to the NL next year and moving forwad.

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January 3, 2021 · 2:14 pm

Steve Cohen in the age of access

I’ve thought about this tweet alot. With one tweet, Steven Cohen was able to do what previous ownership* who shall remain nameless from here on out was unable to do: keep Mets fans in the loop in the vacuum of inactivity.

*= Its not that I refuse to talk about them because of their laundry list of personal defects that caused them to be among the most hated humans on Mets twitter, its that for me why waste our breath constantly comparing any regime to them? I’m trying to move my energy elsewhere. Also I may have broken my vow later in this article.

For many of us who were around for the Pre-Cohen days it seems unfathomable that the owner would be taking to a public forum this actively without the slimy tactics of “leaked sources” to state-run television to spread the gospel of patience.

But Steven A Cohen is not your ordinary owner. Have you ever listened to billionaires or seen them in a public setting? Nothing makes them squirm more than being asked a why question. Why means there’s a gripe coming and they don’t handle failure well. Presumably, we’ve been told, that’s what makes them ultra successful.

Cohen came with that type of rap sheet. After all some have taken to the myth building of Cohen by suggesting that some of the inspiration behind the character played by Damian Lewis on Billions is inspired by Cohen. While that’s nice and all*, its been his ability to lower himself to interact with #Metstwitter that has been a breath of fresh air.

*= Boss is what it actually is.

He not only is natural, but he’s gone out of his way to ::gasp:: solicit their opinions on the truly important issues of the day such as:

or even this:

Its truly uncharted territory for an owner to be this forward and direct with the fan base. Especially one as irrational as the Mets fanbase is. Its been 2 months since the deal was closed and there are Mets fans who are being impatient about the overall glacial pace that the free agent market is moving in.

What didn’t help were the Padres reaching deep into their war chest of prospects to pull off two stunning trades to vault them into the conversation of a top 5 team in baseball.

But fear not, even in the midst of all the angst and self doubt/loathing found on Mets twitter, Cohen managed to speak to his base with the kind of fair minded reasoning that only made those who were craving news even more furious. It was fun to see and also refreshing. Because what is an irrational fanbase if they are being bludgeoned by patience and well reasoned arguments?

Steven Cohen came in waxing poetic about attending games as a kid at the Polo Grounds, falling in love with the ’69 Mets as most of his generation did, polishing his authenticity as one of the legion of Mets fans who “care” or “get it” and went on social media to double down.

But Cohen’s introductory press conference should tell us everything we can expect: he looks at owning the team as a public trust. He loves commiserating with fans, even the bitter ones. He won’t spend money just to spend money because he wants to build something sustainable.

The best quote came from Sandy Alderson, the Team President- “acquisition over cost”. It doesn’t read as flashy as “come get us” but it does the trick.

He will make the move that fans will point to, even those who are openly crying on Mets forums, as the sign that he’s the real deal but it may not happen just yet. Maybe not even this season.

But atleast he will be direct and you get the sense that he isn’t afraid to put his thoughts out there about why he could or could not make the move like when he congratulated the Padres on the Snell and Darvish trades:

I see no lies told.

The honesty is refreshing but the access Mets fans have is a reflection of who Cohen intends to be: an open book. Not Steinbrenner-ish (I hope) with violent outbursts in the media. But invested enough with the fan base that he will at the very least respond even to the outlandish ones.

This kind of access is almost unprecedented save for Mavs owner Mark Cuban. You don’t see team owners actively engaging with their audience in a way that most youtubers understand is essential to winning people over. Its such a small thing to do but so gigantic in how a fan can feel like they are being heard. Imagine Jeff Bezos leaving comments about your subscription orders on Amazon? How much fun would that be?*

*= Actually not because Jeff Bezos is a Bond villain and you can’t convince me otherwise.

For Mets fans its a breath of fresh air. Think about how many times ownership has stood so far back protected by the darkness so they wouldn’t be exposed? How many times Mets fans demanded answers about their unwillingness to spend and being given the all good hand signal with not a single person believing any of it?

This isn’t to say that Cohen won’t have terrible days. That his willingness to engage with Mets fans over social media has created an unrealistic expectation that he is at their beck and call day and night when they have a question. But this is to suggest that if something newsworthy happens- he won’t hide. He will be the face in front of the camera and the microphone and its refreshing.

Here’s to better days and better times to come!

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