MLB Predictions

People have come up to me wondering my thoughts about the Mets and why I havent written about them.  There are those that think I’m too disappointed from the last three years to even comment.  Some don’t blame me for wasting a few thousand words on a team that makes it their business, it seems, to ignore the very purpose of being successful.

Thing is, I get everyones point of view.  In fact I basically went through different stages of opinion on these Mets until I got to where I am today.  That, I will get to later.

The first stage was ANGER.  This was immediately following the season.  Having to see the two most hated rivals of the Mets play in the World Series was about as much fun as having Precious give you a lapdance.*  Hearing it from both Yankee and Phillies fan bases after the Mets put the finishing touches on a 70-92 campaign, the first at the polarizing Citi Field**, it was a new low reached after the previous two September collapses.  It was as if God wasn’t through punishing the Mets enough.

*= Don’t judge me, everybody’s making fun of her.
**= Need we go into the Mets new stadium that looked like a museum for a team that left 50 years ago?  Named after a company who had to accept bail out money from the government.  In a field that sapped the power ONLY from our line up.  On the bright side, the food selection and overall prettiness factor made it a great experience for the fans.

The free agency period brought me into DESPAIR.  Roy Halladay flatly refused to come to the Mets.  John Lackey didn’t even bother waiting for a counter offer from the Mets who were, according to GM Omar Minaya, willing to bid for his services with the Red Sox who he eventually signed with.*   Peter Gammons, the nice grandfather looking reporter for ESPN said he’d much rather play in Beirut than Queens.**  It seemed the Mets were a disease that no one wanted a part of.

*= think about it, instead of getting two of the big money franchises in all of sports to bid for his services, Lackey was so terrified of the prospect of the Mets outbidding the Sox that he took Boston’s first good offer.
**=ouch.

Then it went to CONFUSION when the Mets got into a bizarre argument with their star center fielder, Carlos Beltran over surgery that he wound up getting.

Then it went to to OPTIMISM as Jason Bay signed and all the postive reports coming out of Spring Training.

Till now.  Now its NOTHING.  Jose Reyes is coming back and pumped for this season.  Jose Reyes has high thyroid levels and needs further tests to see how bad it is.  Jose Reyes is out till mid April.  Jose Reyes may be ready for Opening Day.  Jose Reyes is sitting out the first five games.
I’m leaving room in this very article for a new Mets press release saying he’s out till May with Beltran.

There’s a part in one of my favorite movies, Seven, where Morgan Freeman and Brad Pitt are preparing to take Kevin Spacey’s character to the location of the final body and Freeman’s character is mentally readying Pitt’s character for the possibility of anything happening.  “If John Doe’s head splits open and a UFO should fly out, I want you to have expected it.”. That’s the theme for every Met fan.  No matter what you think you know, you have no idea, just be prepared.*

*= You know how I know that? Injuries aren’t a trackable stat in the world of sabremetrics (the only thing that can’t be charted.).  The Mets can win 75 games or win 90.  Nothing is out of question here.

The worst part is that the Mets front office themselves have no idea.  Since the firing of his top lieutenant last year that led to yet another bizarre blame match, this time with Adam Rubin, Omar has clearly lost the confidence he possessed when he claimed to have full autonomy over the team.

People can bring up the Madoff mess, but that probably did more to address some of the skeletons in the closet.  The Wilpons have long hung their hats on the fact that they have one of the highest payrolls.  While statistically its true, its also clear from their recent lack of moves that the Mets bottom line was affected by the Ponzi scheme.  Yet you’d never hear that admission from them.  They insist that its not affecting their day to day operations.  But then how can you overlook the rumors of them lowballing free agents?  As if players will take less to come to the Mets?  The same team that seems to lack simple communication skills that keep them from being on the same page with each other.

But it seems as if the hope is that Met fans are dumb enough to fall for it.  That we don’t think that our team’s FO isn’t lowballing free agents that could come and help us.  That Omar Minaya’s hands have been tied and yet takes all the blame.

Which of course brings up this season’s major storyline in its first two months.  If the Mets get off to a slow start, the ax will fall on two heads: Omar Minaya the GM and Jerry Manuel the manager.  Many view Jerry’s laid back approach as counter productive, as if he’s ok with the lack of producing and yet if you don’t count last seasons train wreck, after taking over for Willie Randolph, a full season of Manuel wouldve produced a 95 win team that year- enough to win the division.

To be honest, I like Manuel.  What did you expect him to say last year at some of those press conferences?  Its easy to underscore his ability as a manager under those circumstances, but his ability to not lose his head makes him a very valuable commodity in New York.  Media members already have named several in-house candidates as favorites to take over for Manuel if the Mets get off to a slow start.  My only question is, is any coach brought in, coming into a sinking ship?

Omar Minaya’s tenure as GM has been a bizarre one made even more so by the last two years where he has completely lost control.  How much control that’s been given to him is in question as I discussed earlier.  Regardless of payroll restraints, his job is still to surround the talent he’s acquired with complementary pieces.  His drafting hasn’t always been great although we’re now seeing the fruits of earlier drafts coming up with Ike Davis’ showing this past spring training and Jennry Mejia who will be coming up with the team although he’s all of 20.

These two will be judged by the win-loss column which it should be because like any business its a results oriented one.  You can’t get by that.  If the Mets end May on a losing one, don’t be surprised to see heads roll.

Here are the predictions for this season:

NL EAST

Philadelphia- I hate to say it, but Doc Halladay made the best team in the NL even better.

Atlanta- They have the most exciting rookie since Albert Pujols but even he didn’t come with the hype that Heyward did.  The more exciting guy for Braves fans? Tommy Hanson, he’s going to be a top 10 starter this year.

Mets- They could be challenging for the Wild Card and even for the division but EVERYTHING has to go right for this team and when has that ever happened for the Mets?

Marlins- Scariest team in the division that gets more out of their payroll than any other team in the division.  By the way they’re getting a new stadium soon which means they could have money to spend in a few years, imagine how scary their team could be if they spend more than $80 million a year.

Nationals- Finally a ray of hope for this team that has an ace coming in Stephen Strasburg and Drew Storen the closer of the future coming too.  Until then they will struggle, but make no mistake, they won’t be terrible for long.

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals-  They have the best one two in the division and quite possibly the entire league and the best player in the game with a pretty decent sidekick, so where else would I go here?

Brewers- They could seriously challenge the Cards if one of those major pieces of the Cards struggle.  But they need more from their 3-5.  Everyone wondered why they raced to sign Randy Wolf, but it now looks like a very smart deal for a reliable number 2.

Reds- They have quite possibly the best upside of any team, in baseball if everything goes right for them, but they’ve been waiting for that to happen for a couple of years now.

Cubs- What’s another year for a team that has gone over 102 years without a world series?

Pittsburgh- They have a decent team and hopefully for that city they are going to rebuild and keep the cornerstone players.  Another 90 loss season awaits.

Astros- Oswalt is coming in nicked, and they have a 2b playing SS to open the season and Lance Berkman is injured to start the year.  Good luck Astro fans.

NL WEST

Rockies- The sexy pick if you will of the season.  They have an ace in Ubaldo Jiminez that most don’t know about and also, according to most “experts” boast the deepest roster.

Dodgers- Despite all the turmoil surrounding their ownership situation, they still have alot of young talent that I refuse to think they will wilt under the underwhelming offseason they had.

Giants- They have the pitching but I look for Tiny Tim to take a step back after two straight Cy-Young seasons.  Matt Cain is as good a number two as there is in the game, but they don’t have much offense to speak of.

Diamondbacks- I think Justin Upton will have a 30/30 season this year and he’s even possible of a 40/40 but I will hold that prediction for next year.  They need Brandon Webb back.

Padres- They are a fighting bunch to say the least and Bud Black gets the most out of these guys but its almost certain that Adrian Gonzalez will be traded in midseason (Bo-Sox most probably) and leave a gigantic void in the middle of their line up although having Kyle Blanks waiting in the wings to have a monster break out season.

NL Wild Card- Atlanta Braves.

NL Champion- Phillies

NL MVP- Troy Tulowitzki

NL Rookie of the year- Jason Heyward

NL Cy Young- Adam Wainwright

AL EAST

New York Yankees- Defending world champions got better, in sabremetrics’ eyes, let’s see how they did on the field.  Like their starting pitching, love their bullpen.

Red Sox- pitching and defense is the new sexy way to build a team and the Sawx have done it.  Look for them to pull of an Adrian Gonzalez trade midseason to help their offense out.  I don’t think their pitching will be as deep as most think but Lester is going to be a beast this season.

Rays- Love their depth and the fact that even if they trade Carl Crawford (who might be getting sized up in his pinstripes already), they have prospects waiting to take their place (hello Desmond Jennings).  They are going to keep the top two teams sweating the entire year.

Baltimore- A lot of young talent to speak of.  Their outfield is young and athletic and they have a few aces waiting to come up.  Matusz with a big year.

Toronto- Post Halladay life will not be pretty but they did the right thing by trading their long time ace.

AL CENTRAL-

Twins- They lost their closer but Ron Gardenhire is as good a manager as there is and I refuse to count this team out.  When do they change Mauer’s hometown to his name?

White Sox- Love their starting pitching but they need offensive help.  Carlos Quentin needs to come back to form.

Detroit- Sneaking up with a lot of young guys infiltrating the line up.  Dave Dombrowski’s farm products are starting to flood the roster again.

Cleveland- They could climb up two spots if Fausto continues his spring training this year and returns to the 2007 form he showed when he won 19 games.

Royals-  My only question is, what is their plan?

AL WEST

Angels- There’s not a better managed team in baseball.  People love the Mariners but has anyone seen how deep the Angels pitching staff is?

Mariners- I like the Cliff Lee addition but I think Erik Bedard is going to have a monster comeback campaign.

Rangers- They are one year away from really competing.  Unfortunately I think Ron Washington will be fired and Bobby Valentine will be hired to lead them which would suck for Met fans.

Oakland- This is a toss up, I like this team once Michael Taylor and Co. come up to help the pitching staff which should be good.

AL Wild Card- Red Sox

AL MVP- Alex Rodriguez

AL Rookie of the Year- Scott Sizemore 2b Tigers

AL Cy Young- Jon Lester

AL Champion- Boston Red Sox

World Series: Boston Red Sox