I thought it would be an appropriate time to comment on the state of the NY Mets heading into the 2022 baseball season. Our biggest nightmare has been realized- the Braves are great. Not good. Great. Despite the pull of societal pressure to re-sign a fan favorite at age 33 to a 6 year deal, the Braves decided to use their resources to trade for a younger version, heading into his prime, Matt Olson, from the Athletics to open a new window. They have both their star position players Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies signed through 2027 with Acuna having a club option in 2028 that unless something goes horrifyingly wrong will be picked up.
They have young pitching in the majors that won’t be FA’s until 2025 and young pitching in the minors ready to step in if necessary. They just added one of the best closers from a league rival that shocked the industry and they are more than just kicking tires on Carlos Correa. Alex Anthopolous has built the monster he wanted to build while in Toronto. Worse? He has a conglomerate behind him.
The Phillies are going to spend and that’s the nicest thing I can say about them. They signed Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos likely only watching highlights of them hitting. They join Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola and a bullpen that Mets fans will find has an awfully FAMILIA-r look to it.
The Marlins are rebuilding or something. Since they pulled the wool over everyone’s eyes twice in the span of a near decade and won two World Series, they have been in the desert looking for an oasis. Presumably the last 19 years since is the price you pay when you make a deal with the devil for two world series. Derek Jeter walked away when he realized the Marlins were just there for the check and not to win.
The Nationals are deferring the next few seasons so they can scrounge up enough scratch to convince Juan Soto to take their 10 year $500M offer with about $400M of it deferred. They have some prospects coming and traded away two of their most respected stars for an upgrade to their minor league system. I would’ve said shot in the arm but you know its a sore subject to folks in DC.
Which brings us to the beloved Mets. With Steve Cohen running things, the Mets have made zero doubts about whether they are in financially committed to the cause of winning. They more than likely will sport the league’s highest payroll- Freddie Freeman contracts be damned! With that comes the scorn of the industry who just tried to cry poo in dealings with the players association. Even naming a top luxury tax tier did nothing to phase Steve Cohen from his mission.
So where exactly are the Mets? Good question.
Pre-owner driven lockout (I’m saying it with my chest)- the Mets signed Max Scherzer to the richest contract ever for a pitcher. They then went and got wish versions for elite OF play in Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. This is not to demean them but their contracts and price point suggest they are there to keep the seat warm for some youngsters on the way. They also hired an experienced manager in Buck Showalter and GM Billy Eppler. Both have experience winning in NY coming from the glory days of the Yankees.
What Steve Cohen has done for baseball and to the Mets is set them up for what most hope is their commeuppance. Mets fans won’t be surprised by anything that happens this season. In fact most already have complained that they haven’t done enough in light of the other teams in the division- notably the defending World Series champion Braves- doing stuff. But this season more than anything is the litmus test for Mets fans.
The owner has spent. We are on the clock for that window he wanted to win in. Pressure busts pipes but it can also create diamonds. In hopes of altering the makeup of this team the investment Cohen put into Showalter and Scherzer were also to recalibrate this team’s toughness and grit. Those two words we hear so much about but can’t quantify but we always point to the 90’s Yankees. Those teams didn’t have superstars- they just had guys who knew how to win and play the right way.
Every guy, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha included, were brought here with the specific intent to improve upon the clubhouse dynamic that led to clubhouse fights, thumbs down gimmics, and made up hitting coaches. There won’t be any of those shenanigans with Showalter in the clubhouse. But more than that, this core that Mets fans hold so dearly- they were put on notice. From now on, you either are part of the winning or youre the reason we’re losing. The decisions didn’t mince the intent.
This team is all-in on payroll with a chance to go up. This is not just about reaching the playoffs- its about winning in October. Trading for Chris Bassit on a one year deal is about right now. This team can and should think that they can compete with the Braves. They won a World Series on the hot bats of Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario after losing the best player on the team Ronald Acuna. That’s a talented team that decided they aren’t ready for the fun times to end.
The Mets hope is that alot of their players won’t suffer the same fate as last year. Dominic Smith, JD Davis and Jeff McNeil had years they wish they didn’t. It was learned earlier this week thanks to Pat Ragazzo of SI that Dom played the year with a torn labrum. He’s already hit two homers in live AB vs a working up to starting Max Scherzer and one in their first Spring Training game. So the results so far have been encouraging. JD Davis is penciled in at 3B and DH and shouldn’t touch a glove for all that is holy and my blood pressure.
Jeff McNeil has positional versatility at both 2b and 3b but its his relationship with Lindor that many will have their eyes on. No matter how much they did their lubby dubby PR Press tour, everybody could tell those smiles were faker than laughing at an awful joke because you were told by your parents to get along with that person. I expect McNeil to have a bounceback year because that guy can hit and Showalter has already done him a huge service by announcing that he will get the bulk of time at 2b. Sometimes its all it takes.
But nobody has more on his shoulders than the $341M man Francisco Lindor. A year ago the Mets traded for then signed him to a big extension- a sign to Mets fans that Steve Cohen meant business. His first year was filled with more downs than ups but there’s reason for hope that after returning from an oblique strain that Lindor has a greater handle on playing in NY than he did when he accepted the trade. Us Mets fans can simply look at Carlos Beltran as an example of what can happen when a superstar finally feels comfortable. His 2006 season may be the greatest season put together by a Mets position player in the club’s history. It just so happened that it was also his second season in NY.
We keep telling you out of towners- NY isn’t for everybody and we mean it.
Will Pete Alonso having endured a car crash that he walked away from be able to put that trauma behind him to hit 40+ homers? Brandon Nimmo is in his walk year and how will this front office value what he does? Will Jake DeGrom last a full season after suggesting he thinks he can continue throwing as hard as he did last year? What will we get from Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco? What even are we going to see from the bullpen this year? What are we even thinking we will get from Cano?
Can the Mets do it? In my opinion yes. But a 162 game season means some randomness can happen but the season will shake out the truth. That whether this grand experiment will work or not. Because if it doesn’t this team will look dramatically different. To me this is a 90+ win team. How many wins over 90 will be told by what happens. Buckle up.
Another fake mailbag ball bags. As always these are fake questions from real people. Leggo!
With Kluber and DJ Lemehiu signed are the Yanks done?- Brian C from the Bronx
Brian that’s a great question and the answer is no. There are two factors here- roster construction and roster subtraction. Let’s start with the latter.
As Lindsey Adler of the Athletic pointed out the Yankees will have to subtract two players before adding Kluber and DJ Lemehiu. Which means a move or two are coming. We’ll get to that in a moment.
Let’s all agree DJ wasn’t going anywhere despite the long wait. The surprising, and frankly brilliant, part was that the deal was for 6 years which allowed the Yankees to bring the AAV down. As was pointed out multiple times, the average value of the deal is what’s counted for payroll purposes when staring down the luxury tax. So getting DJ for $15M a year is a bargain….for the next 4 years where he can play almost every infield position. I’m not going to argue about the Yankees signing him through his 39th birthday since DJ’s main skill is his ability to hit and hit for average which every Yankee fan will tell you was what was missing for the last few years.
It was also not surprising the Yankees signed Corey Kluber who was rehabbing in the Cressey Sports Performance Training Center. That center is run by Eric Cressey who the Yankees hired a year ago to oversee their training and strength/conditioning departments. Cressey still works at his center and trains other players like Noah Syndegaard (interesting for Mets fans I’m sure) and Max Scherzer among others which I’m not sure how that isn’t a conflict of interest but hey what do I know.*. So it wasn’t surprising that Kluber would want to sign a one year deal with the Yankees. But Yankees slotting Kluber in ink as the #2 starter behind Cole is hopeful rather than realistic.
*= yes that is my Mets self esteem issues still around from the Pre-Wilpon days. I’m still working through them.
Kluber threw one inning in his last comeback attempt with the Rangers last year, but the Yankees felt comfortable outbidding others for his services. They signed all of their arbitration eligible players and now GM Brian Cashman knows he has ~$4M to spend on starting pitching depth, and another OF.
With some subtractions required to fit the two acquisitions on to the 40-man roster, some have already begun fitting current-Reds starter Luis Castillo into pinstripes. There are a number of enticing young players on the Yankees roster that could work but here’s another way- the Yankees could flex their big city muscle like their counterparts in Flushing have begun to do so and take on some of the heftier contracts in return for a lighter prospect load. So instead of Clint Frazier, Clarke Schmidt AND another top Yankee prospect, the Yankees could send only Frazier and Schmidt and perhaps trade a lesser prospect for Castillo and either Mike Moustakas or someone I think would be better- Nick Castellanos.
This is only if the Yankees are prepared to go past the luxury tax this season. Castellanos can play 3B and LF and he’s going to be 29 this year and he’s tied through his age 34 season. He’s rough defensively at both positions but again can be a useful offensive bat if it means the Yankees hold on to their better prospects and allows them to acquire Luis Castillo who played the role of Ace #2 behind NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. Castillo is in the first year of arbitration entering the 2021 season, so he’s cost controlled for the next 3 years and would provide the Yankees or any team attempting to trade for him the kind of ace level production anyone would love to have. This option also means they go past the luxury tax which many have predicted they want to stay under for this year.
What we don’t know is whether Cashman has the stomach to make this kind of trade. The Reds are said to be asking for a ransom in return for Castillo and even if you added a bloated contract this move will likely cost them Frazier and Schmidt at minimum. Cashman has hesitated in dealing prospects the last few years but may view this as one of those special circumstances where the cost is warranted. There are other trades to be made but Castillo has reportedly been shopped and it would be criminal if Cash didn’t make an attempt to shore up a rotation that other than Gerrit Cole, has 800 career innings pitched behind him (note this means Clarke Schmidt and his 6 career innings, Luis Severino who is coming back from Tommy John, Deivi Garcia and his 30 IP and Jordan Montgomery). I’m not including Domingo German who as of now still has a job but it will be interesting to see how the Yankees tightrope his suspension and a return if at all.
Adding Castillo would instantly put the Yankees rotation on par with the top 5 rotations in all of baseball. Montgomery isn’t flashy but he’s solid as a 5th starter. I like Deivi Garcia alot. I think he has the stuff to be really good in two to three years. But until then he would be a good four in this rotation. Kluber would slot in as a three which is a necessity since Severino wouldn’t be expected to be back until June at the earliest and the Yankees would want to bring him in slowly. The Yankees would be giving up Clarke Schmidt in this deal for Castillo.
The Yankees have Michael King, Albert Abreu, and Luis Medina as options as well. Now, what that means for them this season is something else altogether.
To me the line up is stacked but the Yankees have been linked to Michael Brantley as well. If they added Brantley at LF, while trading for Castillo how can anyone pick against this team come October? Or even Marcell Ozuna for that matter. There are a number of reasons to believe Trevor Bauer won’t be wearing a Yankee hat outside of his free agent Youtube videos. There’s that thing with Gerrit Cole which may or may not have been squashed and Trevor’s penchant for stirring up the interwebs with his outspoken antics which for the straight laced, clean shaven Yankees may be too much. Plus he’s just too expensive.
Do they go after Joc Pederson who can play every OF spot defensively? Want a cheaper SP option? What about Taijuan Walker or Jake Odorizzi who are at the top of most peoples lists for back end depth options. You can argue both are probably a tinker or two away from becoming good pitchers and incredible value. The Yankees don’t have exciting options outside of the Castillo trade and given their 40 man situation, where this roster is currently, a Castillo trade makes a ton of sense for the Yankees to pursue. Get it done Cash.
Why would the Mets sign everyone but hold the line for JD Davis and what does that mean for what the Mets do next – JD from Flushing
Most people don’t understand why the Mets want to go through arbitration hearings when all that separates both sides is $400K but a deeper look could tell you where the Mets are looking at upgrading. Alot of people think the Mets next buy is Brad Hand to help the Mets bullpen. The Mets keep talking about using money to upgrade since the Mets don’t have the kind of prospect depth to swing the kind of trade they need. So CF will likely need to be a FA acquisition but Alderson has said multiple times that in lieu of a DH in the national league he doesn’t want to see Dom Smith or JD Davis play LF.
The reality is getting a true CF, whether its Springer or Jackie Bradley Jr or Albert Almora Jr helps the OF situation by moving Nimmo to left and you either learn to live with Davis at 3b or you work him in a platoon with Luis Guillorme. His value is tied to how that situation plays out. If Davis is a platoon guy then paying more than they want to for Davis makes little sense even for a team that is actively spending like the Mets.
The fans are all over about what the next priority should be as long as they close Brad Hand. They’ve been linked to Kris Bryant although you can’t envision them trading for and giving him an extension unless the cost to acquire him came down. The Mets have around $21M now that all the arbitration numbers are in. Some have argued that going the Lemiehu route on Springer (signing him for a longer contract to bring the AAV down) makes sense but the Mets will likely be negotiating with both Lindor and Conforto on long term extensions at the same time.
In my previous mailbag I predicted the value on Lindor and Conforto extensions. The Mets are locked in at $68M in commitments. Fitting a Springer at a lower AAV could be done but the question is whether the Mets want to do that over the other options. Much of that won’t be answered until we know whether Lindor and Conforto can be signed long term. That’s why I think the Springer offer is a take it or leave it offer until the Mets know where the other two are in terms of contracts. So my prediction is Springer could wait this out to keep the Mets in it to try adn get the Mets the most money possible.
My prediction: Davis opens the season as their 3B but the Mets could look to trade for Bryant at the midpoint of next season when the ask would be lower. This is a make or break season for Davis and his future on this franchise given the line the Mets decided to draw in the sand in arbitration. Davis would be the fourth Met in the last 28 years to go to arbitration.
Is anyone going to take the BlueJays money? Mark S from Toronto
You have to believe someone will. The Blue Jays have an enviable $116M in in luxury tax space this year and don’t have more than $33M in commitments next year with Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio still in pre-arb years and Vlad Jr entering his first arb year next year. Theoretically the Blue Jays could meet Bauer’s price and Realmuto’s price and Springer’s price IF they chose to do so but the bet here is that only one will take their money.
The recent news that Springer would like to play close to his Connecticut home is half negotiating tactic aimed at keeping the Mets involved, and half truth. We will know soon if Springer is just trying to extract additional monies from the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays offered a higher AAV for Lemeihu with their reported 4 year $78M offer but they weren’t willing to extend beyond that number to rob Lemiehu from the Yankees, if that was even something DJ was considering.
At some point the Blue Jays will have to make an aggressive offer for somebody. So it makes sense for Springer to stay in for as long as possible. Im wondering if the Blue Jays who so far haven’t been linked too close to Bauer or Realmuto shift energy into signing both.
Jayson Stark of the Athletic reported the Phillies made a 5 year offer for $100M recently. Would the Blue Jays be motivated to go big for Realmuto? They have Danny Jansen at the position now, and don’t have a prospect within 3 years of making the big league club so there’s an opportunity to massively upgrade the position and then spend big on shoring up the rotation and bullpen.
To me Bauer is a fit since Ross Atkins their current GM and and President of Baseball Operations Mark Shapiro both were in Cleveland when they traded for Bauer. They know what they are getting but do they want to sink $30M+ on a pitcher who just turned 30? Tough to know.
If I had to predict one would sign I’m guessing its Springer. The Mets priorities will be to re-sign Lindor and Conforto and at the minimum engage Syndegaard on a contract extension as well. Until they know what they are working with for the next few years its hard to figure on Springer. You get the sense that the Blue Jays will want to have one big contract expense to point to when discussing their offseason so its not a total failure even if it means overpaying for one of the guys.
Are we still going to start baseball on time? Rob M from NYC
No Rob. No we won’t. There isn’t any evidence that we are at the stage of vaccine deployment where enough of the population will get it so that we can get back to some amount of fans at all ballparks this year to begin the year.
My prediction is that we start Spring training in mid March with May being a scheduled start so we can have a 140 game schedule. I also predict many of the rules that existed last year will be in effect next year including expanded playoffs, 7 innings for double headers, runners at 2nd for extra inning games and most importantly the DH in the NL.
Why is Thibs continually going to Elfrid Payton over Immanuel Quickley? Immanuel Q from Midtown
Finally a basketball question!
I couldn’t tell you other than Thibs wants to ease Quickley into the expanded role that he should be playing. He’s a rookie and looks like the future at backcourt for the Knicks.
There isn’t a basketball reason for keeping Payton in at PG and playing him meaningful minutes. There’s an energy, skill and IQ (pardon the pun) uptick as soon as Quickley comes into the ballgame. Thibs isn’t dumb and has to manage this team through its first rough stretch. They’ve lost their last 5 games and are now playing the Celtics which will most likely be their sixth loss removing most of the optimism from their 5-3 start.
I said most because its clear that some good things have happened. Quickley is proving to be a steal. Obi hasn’t played and will be a boon with his ability and athleticism. Randle is playing at a 3rd team All NBA level which could result in what will surely be a healthy should we or shouldn’t we trade Randle for assets discussion among Knicks fans.
Most importnatly Kevin Knox, the guy who was on the outs in most Knicks fans eyes has begun to see life. He’s hitting 44% from deep, attempting the same amount while seeing his highest PER in his young career. Speaking of developments, it turns out putting the ball as much as possible in RJ Barret’s hands is a good decision.
Barrett is making the type of statistical leap in year two that most players are making although the wins aren’t adding up. Barrett’s 3P shooting aside (he’s at 20.7% for the year), his PER is up and so is his confidence. He’s the guy on this team and entrusting him in those situations can only help as the year goes on and for his development. If we are trashing the Knicks for faulty draft pick decisions we have to atleast see them in extended periods to make a true judgement and incremental improvements in most areas show that Barrett could be on the cusp. The threes will start to fall and as a ballhandler once the defense doesn’t sag off him from beyond the arc, his opportunities to drive and set up teammates or himself will increase and he’s a natural ball handler for a guy his size.
Quickley’s emergence can help both players. Knox doesn’t have to justify his draft slot and can be the hustle guy who drains the occasional three. Barrett has options with the ball in his hands, since Quick is a natural catch and shoot guy and as a guy who can set up Barrett from deep. But its incumbent that both players can take advantage of the opportunities. When the Knicks had their four game win streak all three were playing well along with Randle. They will need that again if the Knicks plan on being the fun team again.
Is James Harden the final piece to the puzzle or the beginning of the end of this current Brooklyn Nets run? Sean M from Brooklyn
My answer to the Harden trade is you trade for the talent, and worry about the fit later. Harden is a top 5 player in the NBA. Those players don’t come along often and he and KD get along. The Brooklyn fit with Kyrie is everyone’s big question mark but the pick and roll with Bruce Brown that Harden ran is terrifying if they can run that with Kyrie and KD on both ends and Joe Harris in another corner. This team will have to outscore every other team but the good news is that outside of Anthony Davis and Lebron James they have two of the most unstoppable offensive weapons in the game in Harden and KD and Kyrie who when mentally in, offers a luxury that no other team outside of the 2017 Warriors could match.
Of course there’s concern that this could blow up in their face but kudos to Sean Marks for making this trade. This is why you stockpile assets. Think about where this franchise came up from to now. This is NOT the Paul Pierce/KG trade where you are trading for washed up players well past their prime. KD is playing like like he never left. Harden posted a triple double in his first game with the Nets and we haven’t even seen Kyrie yet play with them.
Defense is a concern of course but not many teams can offer the offensive firepower the Nets do. Now its on Steve Nash to earn his keep as a coach. Much of Steve Kerr’s value in 2015 was unlocking the style of play the Warriors played that took them from a playoff team to a world champion and then in 2016 to the greatest regular season team ever. But he also excelled in the intangible part of coaching which was coaxing the most out of the team. Having guys like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson who are not the reported headcases that Kyrie and Harden are help but many pointed to Nash’s excellent reputation as a communicator as the reason why they moved on from Kenny Atkinson who oversaw the development of the Nets pre-KD and Kyrie acquisitions.
Now we will know if Nash has hte chops to be a head coach. Can we manage these personalities? Marks is doubling down on his Nash bet by giving him the kind of combustible team that could either win spectacularly or flame out spectacularly but they will for sure take up plenty of national coverage real estate. The talent is too great to ignore so I think its a great idea to trade for one of the top 3 best offensive players of his generation, but also a risk that much of what makes him great could erode the trust the franchise/team have.
All three superstars have the option to jump ship after next year. All three are not going to just shut up and play for the sake of it. Lesson here Knicks- this is why you spend time developing young players and the team. This is why you don’t trade away valuable commodities like first round picks for guys who don’t fit or semi-stars. Sean Marks turned no first round picks and a crappy cap situation into Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden.
You can see why the Rockets chose the Nets offer. Forget the rumor that Tillman Fertita ordered the Rockets front office not to discuss a trade with Daryl Morey and the Sixers who would have reportedly discussed Ben Simmons. If this doesn’t work out the Rockets will have extremely valuable assets moving forward into 2027. Assets, if used right and it flames out, they could use to build the next great team in Houston.
Of course stranger things have happened. I mean judging by pictures Harden lost nearly 40 pounds in the last week. This Nets team could win the next 3 titles and put KD up their with Lebron and MJ in the GOAT discussion. Their success could force teams like the Celtics to make the usually frenetic Danny Ainge to consider taking drastic steps to open a title window by swinging for a big move. Will this Nets team success challenge the Greek Freak’s loyalty?
Remember, the Warriors title teams made Daryl Morey trade for CP3 and then Russell Westbrook which eventually forced its own destruction. It made Lebron face his own mortality and plan the team up with Davis in LA. The Celtics probably figured they could wait the Warriors run out with their young studs Tatum and Brown. How patient can they afford to be if this new big 3 plays well?
There’s a lot riding on this trio. EIther it flames out or teams begin to reconsider whether their roster is good enough to compete in the short term. It could make for interesting subplots leaguewide. There could be more trades. Bradley Beal will be traded. There are only a few teams that can take him on knowing they have a legit chance of beating the Nets if everything falls into place.
You do this trade everytime and figure it out later.
Social media blew up in the middle of last night’s nationally televised game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Football Team when Eagles head coach Doug Pederson removed Jalen Hurts (what he would later say) because back up Nate Sudfeld “deserved an opportunity to get some snaps.” He also said that he was trying to win the game.
With a straight face.
Now let’s unpack this in two ways- The Eagles have to do what’s in the best long term interest of the Eagles. Not the Giants. Not the Redskins or Eli Manning. With the loss, the Eagles secured the 6th pick in the 2021 draft and they have several questions to answer namely- does Doug Pederson come back? and what the hell do they do with Carson Wentz?
I mean there’s this from SI’s Andrew Brandt which is pretty much straight forward. Spoiler alert: its not looking good.
But Doug Pederson’s explanation after the game left alot of people shaking their head. Why all the “we were playing to win” when his actions spoke different?
It pisses me off when teams don’t just come out and be honest about these things. Fans are not dumb. We can all pretend like the integrity of the game, which sounds a lot like the unwritten rules of the game, is this great thing that was broken. LIke the unwritten rules, integrity of the game are arbitrary concepts so-called gatekeepers of sports always point to. What’s worst is that these people who are all up in arms are doing so to just fuel the constant fire of sports chatter not because they genuinely feel hurt.
We don’t live in an ideal black and white society. There’s a ton of gray and the added context of what’s best for Philly is the ONLY THING THAT MATTERS is what folks who are arguing for the integrity of the game refuse to recognize because they know its just a lot of mouth breathing.
Its week 17. The Giants had 16 weeks to make this point moot and lost 3 straight games. Even more criminal is how they blew an 11 point lead to now wack, overpaid back up QB Carson Wentz which was another defeat snatched from the clutches of a win. The Giants have ONLY themselves to blame.
So while its nice to wax poetic about “hey man you play to win the game” remember that Philly did the right thing for them, the Giants should’ve handled their business a long time ago and Carson Wentz is going to be a major crappy situation for the Eagles this whole offseason.
I’ve thought about this tweet alot. With one tweet, Steven Cohen was able to do what previous ownership* who shall remain nameless from here on out was unable to do: keep Mets fans in the loop in the vacuum of inactivity.
*= Its not that I refuse to talk about them because of their laundry list of personal defects that caused them to be among the most hated humans on Mets twitter, its that for me why waste our breath constantly comparing any regime to them? I’m trying to move my energy elsewhere.Also I may have broken my vow later in this article.
For many of us who were around for the Pre-Cohen days it seems unfathomable that the owner would be taking to a public forum this actively without the slimy tactics of “leaked sources” to state-run television to spread the gospel of patience.
But Steven A Cohen is not your ordinary owner. Have you ever listened to billionaires or seen them in a public setting? Nothing makes them squirm more than being asked a why question. Why means there’s a gripe coming and they don’t handle failure well. Presumably, we’ve been told, that’s what makes them ultra successful.
Cohen came with that type of rap sheet. After all some have taken to the myth building of Cohen by suggesting that some of the inspiration behind the character played by Damian Lewis on Billions is inspired by Cohen. While that’s nice and all*, its been his ability to lower himself to interact with #Metstwitter that has been a breath of fresh air.
*= Boss is what it actually is.
He not only is natural, but he’s gone out of his way to ::gasp:: solicit their opinions on the truly important issues of the day such as:
Its truly uncharted territory for an owner to be this forward and direct with the fan base. Especially one as irrational as the Mets fanbase is. Its been 2 months since the deal was closed and there are Mets fans who are being impatient about the overall glacial pace that the free agent market is moving in.
What didn’t help were the Padres reaching deep into their war chest of prospects to pull off two stunning trades to vault them into the conversation of a top 5 team in baseball.
But fear not, even in the midst of all the angst and self doubt/loathing found on Mets twitter, Cohen managed to speak to his base with the kind of fair minded reasoning that only made those who were craving news even more furious. It was fun to see and also refreshing. Because what is an irrational fanbase if they are being bludgeoned by patience and well reasoned arguments?
Steven Cohen came in waxing poetic about attending games as a kid at the Polo Grounds, falling in love with the ’69 Mets as most of his generation did, polishing his authenticity as one of the legion of Mets fans who “care” or “get it” and went on social media to double down.
But Cohen’s introductory press conference should tell us everything we can expect: he looks at owning the team as a public trust. He loves commiserating with fans, even the bitter ones. He won’t spend money just to spend money because he wants to build something sustainable.
The best quote came from Sandy Alderson, the Team President- “acquisition over cost”. It doesn’t read as flashy as “come get us” but it does the trick.
He will make the move that fans will point to, even those who are openly crying on Mets forums, as the sign that he’s the real deal but it may not happen just yet. Maybe not even this season.
But atleast he will be direct and you get the sense that he isn’t afraid to put his thoughts out there about why he could or could not make the move like when he congratulated the Padres on the Snell and Darvish trades:
Hey , Give the Padres credit. They had a top 5 farm system that gave them flexibility to trade for Snell. Newsflash, the Mets farm system needs to be replenished .
The honesty is refreshing but the access Mets fans have is a reflection of who Cohen intends to be: an open book. Not Steinbrenner-ish (I hope) with violent outbursts in the media. But invested enough with the fan base that he will at the very least respond even to the outlandish ones.
This kind of access is almost unprecedented save for Mavs owner Mark Cuban. You don’t see team owners actively engaging with their audience in a way that most youtubers understand is essential to winning people over. Its such a small thing to do but so gigantic in how a fan can feel like they are being heard. Imagine Jeff Bezos leaving comments about your subscription orders on Amazon? How much fun would that be?*
*= Actually not because Jeff Bezos is a Bond villain and you can’t convince me otherwise.
For Mets fans its a breath of fresh air. Think about how many times ownership has stood so far back protected by the darkness so they wouldn’t be exposed? How many times Mets fans demanded answers about their unwillingness to spend and being given the all good hand signal with not a single person believing any of it?
This isn’t to say that Cohen won’t have terrible days. That his willingness to engage with Mets fans over social media has created an unrealistic expectation that he is at their beck and call day and night when they have a question. But this is to suggest that if something newsworthy happens- he won’t hide. He will be the face in front of the camera and the microphone and its refreshing.
-I’m going to try and be consistent with this. As consistent as Peter King is at writing the huge Monday Morning QB that he’s known for, starting from his SI days to now, at NBC. In this morning’s version he talks about “Corn Dog” the play that won the Chiefs the Superbowl. You know those jet motions that had the Eagles corners biting so hard that by the time they realized what happened Kadarius Toney and Sky Moore were walking into the end zone (Toney with 11.2 yards of separation and Moore 13.1 yards of separation via Next Gen stats). In the article Peter writes Andy Reid was trying to call timeout because all-world TE Travis Kelce was lined up wrong. But this is where Patrick Mahomes greatness comes through.
Football Morning in America is up! 🎉🤓 In my column this week:
🦅🌵 Jonathan Gannon talks Philly Super Bowl defense and Cardinals HC job 📝 Things I didn’t write about the Super Bowl ⚖️ The NFL’s Black coaches initiative needs an overhaulhttps://t.co/SNBr1G5MWj
“Right there,” Nagy told me, “You could see the calm Pat had. In these moments, one of the biggest moments of the entire season, Andy trusted Pat in that moment to make the right decision. Sometimes throughout the year, your quarterback is gonna make the wrong decision on a play like that. I’m telling you, Pat just doesn’t make wrong decisions there. It would have been easy with the play clock running down and the formation messed up for Pat to turn around, start walking to the sidelines and signal for time. When he didn’t, I just figured, ‘He’s got something.’”
That’s what makes the decision by the Giants whether to sign Daniel Jones such an important decision not only for the next 2-4 years but for the Daboll/Schoen group. They have to be absolutely sure that they get this decision right because in today’s day and age, they may be hitching their futures to the right arm and legs of Daniel Jones, the same guy who when they took the job and watched the film decided that they wouldn’t guarantee him a fifth year.
Now after a surprise trip to the postseason the Giants are contemplating giving him $35M+ a year for x amount of years. The fanbase is legitemately split about what to do. Most want to see Jones get a new contract and rewarded for his play this past season. They view last year as the first time Jones had good coaching and saw the fruits born from the Daboll/Kafka/Jones partnership. One that will atleast have one more year as Kafka was passed up for HC positions during this hiring cycle.
Continuity is very important for any QB. Eli Manning had the same OC/Coach for nine seasons (Kevin Gilbride started as QB coach from 2004-2006 and then took over playcalling duties from 2006-2013). But Daniel Jones has opted for change in the middle of trying to secure a big money extension. He’s changing his agents in a curious move which will have some impact on negotiations. How much? That’s a good question and that cant be answered until a resolution happens.
Prior to the offseason beginning much of the talk surrounding the free agencies of both Saquon and Daniel Jones was that both could be retained with Saquon being tagged and the Giants focusing on Jones and a long term extension. But now it seems that perhaps Saquon may be the safer bet to be retained via a long term extension.
I’m told #Giants negotiation with Daniel Jones got off to a much bumpier start than expected. Franchise tag very much in play for him https://t.co/b7BpfK1obf
Paul Schwartz believes Jones will be the guy the Giants ink to a long term extension but that was before the reporting of Jones switching agents. As Art Stapleton of the Record in Jersey tweeted “I’ve seen players change representation because they felt new agents would push for more $, and I’ve seen players change reps because they wanted a deal and existing reps were not settling. So, I won’t assume either way without more info.” Xavier McKinney also switched representation from CAA to Athletes First like Jones. Mike Florio of PFT says that per a source this is Jones way of wanting more $$. Florio says that Jones wants $45M+ in any extension.
Good luck. My take is that the Giants should opt for a 4-5 year deal in the $38M a year range with escalator bonuses for awards, postseason play, snaps. I don’t want the cap tied up in him or Saquon that wouldn’t allow the Giants to build on what was no doubt a successful debut season for Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen.
-The NBA All star weekend was a dud. They need to do away with the dunk contest since none of the NBA’s best compete in it. Keep the 3pt contest and the skills competition. Also have a one on one competition and make it be among the All Stars selected. Adam Silver HAS to create some kind of intrigue and that would drive so much discussion around the NBA and give the guys who were selected that fans had a problem with, an opportunity to prove themselves. That’s my take.
Speaking of, listen to this from Bomani Jones on the NBA’s ridiculous decision to reintroduce Karl Malone to the world because the All Star Game was in Utah.
"I hated Karl Malone so much before I had a great reason, I only had good ones. Like just being a dirty player, elbowing people all the time." @bomani_jones on Karl Malone's involvement in NBA All-Star Weekend in Utah. #anyquestionpic.twitter.com/l8ZPvST6VI
Not only is Malone so problematic his running mate, John Stockton is a certified conspiracy theorist who’s daughter runs amok on Fox’s conservative streaming site peddling the same foolishness. Think about it, when you can’t get the white man because of how crazy he is, you bring out the black dude who impregnated a minor in college as the shining beacon of Utah basketball culture. Malone was living in the woods completely disassociated from society. Rolling Stone had a piece about the problematic star who was front and center of Utah’s All Star festivities.
Shaq said he never ordered more room service in his life. Sounds about white.
-Baseball has a spending problem.
MLB has formed an economic reform committee as a result of the Bally networks potentially folding due to their inability to pay rights fees and Steve Cohen’s spending per Evan Drellich of the Athletic.Ken Rosenthal writes that tension over MLB salary arbitration rulings could come back during the next CBA negotiations.
The intention is clear. Baseballs owners want a salary cap. One that will make owners in Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and others look decent in the face of a huge cavern separating Steve Cohen’s willingness to spend to keep a contender together, and the Brewers nickel and diming their ace in salary arbitration. It sucks, as a Mets fan especially, that an owner like Steve Cohen is being punished for doing whatever he can to win. Baseball’s revenue sharing has allowed the smaller market teams to receive a nice healthy check to help absorb their costs but now they are being publicly embarrassed by Cohen’s spending.
You can’t create a whole tax bracket intended to stop a guy like Steve Cohen without understanding that this is like throwing red meat at a lion and asking him not to eat. What did you think he would do? Cohen has also publicly stated that his intended goal is to get below the luxury tax once his farm system is in a place where he can churn out stars through a top of the line player development process similar to what the Dodgers have.
The Dodgers shaved $100M off their payroll including their starting SS, 3B and and are still going to be considered one of the best teams in baseball. The Mets want to get there and with Cohen’s wallet they can but in the first few years Cohen has said he would carry some of the most expensive rosters in baseball because he also wants to win a world series in the first 3-5 years.
But baseball’s small market owners are carrying the movement. I’m confused as to what real time changes they can make prior to the next CBA so they will have to stomach the next 2-3 years until they can get back in the boardroom with the players but I doubt they will achieve what they want.
In the previous CBA offer the owners suggested a salary floor forcing teams to spend $100M but they also lowered the tax threshold to $180M. This analysis done showed that this move would’ve provided nearly a billion dollars worth of savings in contracts. CRAZY!
The ploy was quickly sniffed out by the players as an artificial cap and the players showed zero hesitation in rescinding that offer while Manfred cried on behalf of billionaires. Just this past offseason owners have been confronted about their lack of spending causing some testy exchanges like the one Dan Connolly had with John Angelos of the Orioles. Those arguments have created a tightening of the neck tie in instances that may have created this economic committee which is a joke. Here’s Connolly on Angelos’ latest comments. Reds President Phil Castellini said the Reds operate like a non-profit and called baseball “an industry in crisis. John Henry of the Red Sox only agreed to respond to written questions from the Athletic signaling he had no intention of meeting with the media when he arrived to camp to meet with the team on Monday.
My take is simple as, not just a Mets fan, but as a fan of baseball: leave the salary cap alone. If owners want to create a more equitable situation MLB should consider having owners who will spend to compete. Its ludicrous that billionaires would cry poor and think fans would somehow back them. Between forcing municipalities to pay for stadiums, and then arguing that not enough fans are stifling spending its crazy to me how these owners could be this tone deaf especially going into a recession where the fans will be deeply impacted. Sorry but I won’t be feeling sorry for the Nuttings and the Castellinis or the Fishers of the world who love to take back the revenue sharing money, put zero back into the team and then complain about teams that pay into revenue sharing.
The team/owner they should be taking out their frustrations is Peter Seidler of the Padres. He plays in the 27th media market by size and yet has a top 5 payroll. They made competitive offers to every free agent and have put them in the same stratosphere as the best teams in baseball because they not only spend their own money they use the money acquired from revenue sharing to build a winner that attracts fans and helped them reach gate numbers not seen since their first season in Petco. That’s how you get fans to support- you spend it to make it. Now if only the other owners would agree.
With the Major league season (Finally!) a week away I thought I should put together a tier-based power rankings.
It may not make sense and there’s a good chance I’ll look foolish but hey this is about putting this upcoming season in perspective. If the mood strikes I may do this repeatedly throughout the season (who knows?). Lets get into it.
WE ARENT TRYING
30. Pittsburgh Pirates- Look, this team isn’t trying and we offer you exhibit A and exhibit B. Bob Nutting- the owner of the Pirates- is a billionaire and he’s trying to have a payroll barely above $30M. I know fans are going to complain that the new CBA doesn’t include salary floor language but the reality is that would’ve been the entree for owners to put a salary cap in baseball. I’m not saying that it wouldn’t have been mutually beneficial but as a fan of a (finally!) big market team after years of not acting like one- it would’ve sucked. This is an example of a team that will only go as far as the owner is willing to spend a buck.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks- This is another team that’s trying to convince their fanbase that better times are ahead which when you look at their farm system they are correct. They have a consensus top 10 farm in baseball depending on who’s ranking. They just re-signed their best position player to coincide with the arrival of a number of their better prospects. There’s a scenario that this team is a fun team to watch for prospect nerds by July with a few pieces (Zac Gallen) to trade in July that could make this system even deeper.
28. Oakland Athletics- They aren’t 30 because they haven’t traded everyone away and judging by the haul they got for Olson and Bassit (a player in his walk year) they won’t rush to trade two of the better pitchers (Montas/Manea) unless they get EXACTLY what they want. It sucks that owners do this to fanbases but the Oakland fanbase has been through this rodeo so many times they don’t need anyone to console them. This is their purgatory until they figure out where they could play and they just got some very bad news two weeks ago. Oakland could lose two iconic franchises within a 5 year span and its tough to argue. Most municipalities don’t see the economic reasons for building a sports stadium because they don’t see the return no matter what executives in suits try to tell them. As baseball fans it will be weird to see the Nashville A’s or the Vegas A’s but fans should prepare themselves for that reality. What isn’t clear is whether this will prompt the owner to start spending.
27. Baltimore Orioles- It may be harsh to put them in this tier but they aren’t interested in this year. They are another team that has a bunch of prospects that likely won’t make an impact for another year. This is another year where they will be the deciding factor in who wins the division only this time it won’t just be the AL East. With the new balanced schedules, more teams will get to play the teams in this tier and the teams that beat up on these teams with regularity will decide a bunch of divisional races. The Orioles have the #1 prospect in baseball and its likely he will come up in June and justify his standing. But Baltimore has had a highly touted catching prospect come up and not deliver on the goods but folks can’t stop raving about the all around make up of Adley Rutschmann. We shall see.
26. Washington Nationals- This is the team who’s offseason plan made some kind of sense. They recognize they aren’t trying this year. So they signed a bunch of guys to one year deals who they plan on trading midseason to build up depth in their minors. I love that idea and I wish other teams would be realistic enough to do it. But this season is especially important for two reasons- 1. Will the nationals make a legitimate offer to Soto’s camp on a long term deal? and 2. What is left on the arm of Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals former number one overall pick literally sacrificed his right arm for a world series title and a huge extension and he’s set to come back this year. What can we realistically expect? They are a team that the Mets are facing in the final weekend of the year and I fear could play spoiler.
25. Cincinnati Reds- We can talk about Bob Nutting all day but the Reds are another team that made confounding decisions. Traded away a few pieces and likely to trade more after signing guys to some horrendous contracts just two years ago. What doesn’t appear clear is what the timeline for the next great Reds team is. Forget Luis Castillo who’s dealing with some shoulder issue, would the Reds consider trading Joey Votto this year? He’s owed $45M over the next two years total and he just had his best power year in 4 years last year. He changed his approach but was still an OBP machine like he’s always been. I wonder if they would trade him this July to get the best possible return. It would suck for the franchise’s fans who had to watch Winkler put on another uniform but this could possibly be the best solution for the long term health of the franchise.
They Could Be Interesting This Year IF Things Break Right For Them.
24. Texas Rangers- They made over half a billion dollar investment in their middle infield but they have Jon Gray as their defacto ace and a bunch of 5th starters. They aren’t going to be pretty records wise, but this is another team that could point to their team starting to be assembled with ace Jack Leiter needing another year of marination to begin getting some big league time. They have plenty of money to spend in the coming years and will be eyeing the big aces that come free. They may even make a trade or two at the deadline that may not make sense for pitching even if they aren’t seen as a contender. This team could be interesting sooner than we all think.
23. Colorado Rockies- Probably the most shocking signing of the offseason was Kris Bryant getting the bag thrown at him by the Rockies who famously paid the Cardinals $50M to take a perennial gold glover off their hands. This franchise’s front office upheaval is going to make a crazy Athletic article in a few months. Remember how the Dodgers couldn’t win the NL West despite winning 106 games? They can look at their 13-6 record vs the Rockies as opposed to the 107 win Giants having a 15-4 record in 2021. Yes, the Dodgers ultimately made the NLCS which would make it 5 out of the last 6 seasons but these are the teams in this division that are now open season for a bunch of other division races. The Rockies have a legitemate ace in German Marquez and have a stealthily deep farm system and could surprise folks on offense. This is another team that’s going to win a few games they have no business winning early and late and lose a ton in between.
22. Miami Marlins- Derek Jeter quit this offseason and to make Derek Jeter quit something is no small feat. While the reason may be a matter of discussion this is a team that has a TON of pitching. No seriously a TON. During the lockout shortened season they surprised a bunch of folks by making the playoffs but the bones of this team will be their pitching. They locked up their ace Sandy Alcantara to a long term extension and should aim to do so with Pablo Lopez but i’m wondering what their long term plan is to address the other areas of their teams because their top 3 is as good a top 3 as there is in baseball and that’s without counting Sixto Sanchez, or Max Meyer or Edward Cabrera all who flash plus velocity/movement. Do they trade from this depth to get hitting? This is a team that could swing a trade and still have a top 3 rotation for the next half decade. If only they could hit or develop positional talent like they do pitching.
21. Los Angeles Angels- I was wrestling between this and the former tier but i landed here because how do you put them as a team that doesn’t care when you have Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani on your team? They are starting to assemble a roster around them but nothing is more important than what they get from their starting rotation. Joe Maddon said there are no inning limits for Noah Syndegaard but he’s pitching sub 5 innings in the last two years. He’s signed for a year but let’s be real its with the intent of trading him midseason and advertising him as an elite reliever to net the best return. Its not inconcievable that the Angels FO has sold Ohtani and Trout on this idea to make them stomach yet another year where this won’t be a team that sniffs contention despite having two perennial MVP’s on the team. I can’t even conceive how poorly constructed a team has to be to not be able to build a winner around them but here we are. Bigger development would be Jo Adell being the guy the Angels thought and every prospect hugger thought when he came up.
20. Chicago Cubs- It was legitimately funny to hear the Cubs POBO Jed Hoyer’s “ya’ll should’ve taken the deal when we offered it” spin to reporters when discussing the deals that the former Cubs Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez signed this offseason as opposed to the pre-free agency deals the teams offered. They are a ways away from that 2016 team that broke a 100+ year curse but they are making the moves to that next team. Let’s see how it looks in a year and how they manage to keep trading for high end prospects in deals.
19. Cleveland Guardians- You start team previews believing one thing and it gets to the beginning of the season and something can change everything up. Like locking up Jose Ramirez to a 5 year deal (essentially 7). To put it bluntly this was a 70 win team without Ramirez and a low 80’s team with him. What will change the trajectory of the franchise is whether their hitters will take a step forward or not. Its hard to not view this division as the White Sox, Twins and everyone else showing off their shiny new rookies but the Guardians are in a weird space where they have an abundance of pitching and could use some of that excess depth to trade for an impact bat but are not sure they can afford to make that move until their ownership situation figures itself out (will Dolans stay or will they go?)
COME WATCH THE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR PLAY
18. Detroit Tigers- The Tigers are one of four teams coming into the season that could lay claim to having the best rookie in baseball on their team. Adley Rutschmann on the Orioles. The Tigers will have two of their excellent rookies playing a full season- Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson who got a great welcome to the bigs moment from Miguel Cabrera of all people. The Tigers started investing into their team already- adding Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez at the top. Riley Greene had an unfortunate injury that has dampened the mood but the Tigers should start seeing signs of rebirth with their core coming on this year and next.
17. Kansas City Royals- Bobby Witt hits like Mike Trout. That’s my scouting take. My toxic hot take is that Mike Trout’s value has been inflated by hollow stats that have lead to absolutely nothing for the Angels franchise. Witt has to hope his team is better assembled than Trout’s. The Royals will feature a young- not great rotation with Royals alumni Zack Greinke at the top and a host of young prospects coming up this year (MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Asa Lacy). Let’s see how the young’ns will react to the show.
16. Seattle Mariners- Full disclosure, I think the Mariners make the playoffs. But Swithin, that means they should be higher than 16 in your opening poll. Let me make clear that the season opening polls don’t reflect how I think the season will go, but how the teams open up this year. I like the Mariners. I love that they promoted Julio Rodriguez like the Royals did with Witt, and the Tigers did with Torkelson. The league is overflowing with under 25 STARS that it will be exciting to watch so many young guys develop over the year but Rodriguez is the guy to watch. I think he will be the AL ROY and it won’t be close because as soon as he figures it out, I give the league until May to destroy his confidence, and then watch out. He’s a dude. Those of a certain age know what I mean when I say that. He’s just bigger than most guys and the sound off his bat is what really turns your head. The Astros run of dominance could end as early as next year if they keep letting the talent walk out.
15. Minnesota Twins- Adding Carlos Correa was a legit jaw dropping move. Good for the Twins for doing something that many didn’t expect from them but then again they signed Byron Buxton to a long term contract which many didn’t think was possible either. Either way the Twins will have a guy with a lifetime .413/.443/1.205 line at Target Field play for them for a full year. That’s the highest mark playing at any park minimum 15 games. The Twins and Correa built opt outs that will let both recover if things go south. They still don’t have great pitching despite jus trading for Chris Paddack. But the Twins should have a better offense and they have a great defense so that could mean wins that perhaps weren’t there last year. The Gary Sanchez/Gio Urshela for Josh Donaldson/Ben Rortvedt served both teams well. The Yankees were able to get out from under Gary while getting a better bat in Donaldson and a better defensive backup catcher. Let’s see how this season unfolds but the Twins could be a monster offense.
WE HAVE HOPES AND DREAMS
14. Philadelphia Phillies- Another team I have making the playoffs but inexplicably outside of the top 12. Yes, this is a team that will struggle to defend but you put an offense with Realmuto, Harper, Schwarber, and Hoskins, it will win some ugly games. This is a deep lineup and health permitting they will win alot more games than folks want to admit. The questions for the rotation are thusly: what’s with Zack Wheeler’s arm? They aren’t starting him opening day because he experienced some discomfort earlier this year. Will that lingering arm injury cost him some games this year? If so will Aaron Nola reclaim his former luster as a really good pitcher? Is Ranger Suarez that missing piece of the rotation? Eflin and Gibson are who they are but if Suarez can provide quality innings you have to like the Phillies chances. The hope is that Phillies fans aren’t looking for hope in the bullpen late in a close game.
13. St Louis Cardinals- I really thought the Cardinals would go after Trevor Story. If they did I would feel better about them but with Jack Flaherty’s injury, and their pitching depth down to tiny thread that holds Steven Matz’ self confidence you have to wonder if the Cardinals will truly be a good team. Last year they snuck into the playoffs playing an insane stretch of baseball late in teh season which ok sure- good luck replicating that. The Cardinals have this voodoo magic that the Yankees have. Yes bringing back Pujols was legitemately a cool moment albeit shortlived after he stupidly announced his divorce from his wife days after she had an operation to remove a brain tumor. For the record I agree that divorces don’t “just happen overnight” like he said in his statement but the idea that he would publicly announce something that is NOBODY’s F’ng BUSINESS but their family’s was bizarre. Invoking God’s plan (and no not the Drake song) was even dumber. I can’t imagine God would want you to abandon your wife and mother to your children while she’s still recovering from a major operation. But hey i’ve written too much about it. My point is nothing lasts and neither can the Cardinals devil magic. The decline will start this year.
12. Milwaukee Brewers- I love their pitching. I love their bullpen. Even if they traded Hader, they may still be left with the best closer in the national league- Devin Williams. He’s that good. His change up is basically witch craft and the movement can’t be explained and good luck even hitting it. Their lineup is basically one big question mark around Christian Yelich. The Brewers play great defense and have great pitching- that’s how they will win their division and overtake the Cardinals. They will make moves that seem small and insignificant that will play large roles. They are managed well and built well. More on the Mets future in a second.
11. Boston RedSox- The vibes have not been immaculate in Boston. Devers shot down a contract offer from the club as it was “lower than he is willing to consider.” So good news there. Honestly? The Sawx don’t have the pitching IMO to keep up in the AL East. Alex Cora will have to work his magic even better this year. He has done an amazing job as manager but this division will be an absolute blood bath. Even Cora’ charm won’t be enough.
10. San Diego Padres- I’ve openly complained about how they are able to trade all of their prospects not in the top 5 for really good returns and continue to underperform. Tatis reckless behavior has to be troubling especially coming off the 14 year commitment they made to him. But this is a pretty deep team and they just hired a really good manager that I hoped would come to the Mets before they settled on Buck- Bob Melvin. Melvin’s calming influence will be good and I hope he’s a guy who will let the boys be boys. I just don’t think they will win enough games to reach the playoffs this year especially knowing Tatis will miss half the season.
CONTENDERS
9. New York Mets- I’ll admit that I like this team. Sure. I’ll even admit that I’m higher on them than most. Im more optimistic than most. That can all come crumbling down very quickly. But this is as deep a lineup as the Mets have had ever. I really believe Dom Smith will have 450-500 AB’s. We have a manager who knows what he’s doing and this team will go on a run once deGrom returns that will make folks believe. I still think they are a pitcher short but we will see how aggressive Billy Eppler is at the trade deadline but this is a team that should win a ton of games with a steadier hand leading the team.
8. New York Yankees- The Yankees are a deeper team than they were. They have plenty of offense to win a bunch of games but their defense will be suspect imo and their starting pitching hinges alot on guys who don’t have that kind of track record. The Yankees hope they can sign Judge long term, and they have to secure their price now because who knows what happens. The Giants are a big market team ready to drop a bag on a kid from the Bay Area. The Yankees have to know that they risk alienating their fanbase even more if they let the face of their franchise just walk. If the Yankees don’t sign Judge in the next 24 hours, he’s as good as gone in my opinion. Or the Yankees will have their arm twisted into 1-2 more years than they would’ve liked at a few million more than they would’ve liked. Let’s see how badly Judge wants to stay a Yankee.
7. San Francisco Giants- Can they win 100+ games again? Farhan Zaidi is as smart a GM as they come. They make smart decisions and they are a team that thinks outside the box when it comes to every facet of their organization which has enabled them to beat projection systems almost every year. This team could win 88 games or win 104 games. The reality is they got deeper at pitching and their scientists, i mean coaches will get thier hands on Rodon and somehow helped Cobb add 3-4 MPH on a fastball that was already mid 90’s. Sure. Completely normal. I am not betting against them.
6. Chicago White Sox- They signed Johnny Cueto to a minor league contract so that should tell you where they are in terms of their pitching depth. But the White Sox have the kind of lineup that Tony LaRussa wishes he could manage. Wait, he’s A MANAGER? Either way the Sox will be a really fun entertaining team. They have a solid pitching staff- but that trade for Craig Kimbrell looks even dumber now that they traded him for AJ Pollock who should be a platoon player. I think the WhiteSox will be a one and done team in the postseason but because their division is atrocious they will win it.
5. Houston Astros- Every year they let another guy go and every year they win the West. The Jeff Luhnow tenure left a lot of bodies but it churned out a consistent winner that has leaned on analytics to win divisions and pennants. Every year we assume there’s a downturn and every year they win 95-100 games. At some point losing stars will hurt. This year it was Correa who signed for a deal that a few teams are probably smacking themselves for not offering. But the Astros really really believe in Jeremy Pena and so does my fantasy team. They still have a ton of hitting and a good enough amount of pitching to get thru an AL West that will have 1 teams actively plotting to lose games and shed players, and 3 other teams trying to convince the league they are ready to replace the Astros. I’ll believe it when I see it but it won’t be this year.
4. Tampa Bay Rays- I want to put them in the next group but the reality is there’s a host of outcomes that could rear its head. Will the team be a pennant contender? Sure. Will they win a ton of games because they may have the game’s best young shortstop? Yes. Will they defy convention over the course of a season because they have to in order to survive? Yes. But these are the good times for an organization who shippped off a 30 hr corner outfield bat because they had to make room for a rookie 30 hr corner outfield bat who can defend. They are a factory. A machine created by an algorithm that knows not emotion but cold calculus of wins and losses. Its a tough business but I would’ve loved ANY executive off this team to poach as a Mets fan and I will be a fan of theirs always.
THE FAVORITES:
3. Toronto Blue Jays- They will have definite advantages because they have a great young team with a conglomerate backing them as their ownership. One of those advantages could come as a result of a country ordinance that prevents any player from participating without having received the vaccine. The fact that this game had grown men 20 years ago injecting steroids into their hind parts and has now morphed to grown men scared of a life saving vaccine has me asking this very simple question- where have all the real men gone? The Jays have a stacked lineup and the fact that they were making a concerted effort to pry Jose Ramirez from the Guardians days before the regular season while having already traded for Matt Chapman one of the best defensive 3b in the league show you where this team is in terms of knowing when their moment is. The moment is now. This is a team ready for the here and now.
2. Atlanta Braves- There is no rule that states that I HAVE to put Atlanta at 1 because they won the world series last year. But last year was my worst nightmare because this is a really good team and they didn’t let the emotion of a title sweep them up into making a bad long term investment in Freddie Freeman. Seriously that was probably the scariest part of this organization. It got younger with a minimal drop off in talent and probably better vibes if an Acuna interview is to be believed. Olson is as good if not better defensively, probably going to emerge as a better power hitter if their 2021 season trend lines indicate anything. They have more prospects, and enough pitching to make them great and they won a title without Ronald Acuna. Just let that sink in.
Los Angeles Dodgers– They are a behemoth. A galaxy destroying death star that if fully operational should have enough to trade for anybody in baseball while still trotting out a middle of the order that reads like an All Star team. If this team doesn’t win this year alot of injuries happened and the Giants and Padres were a lot better than we thought or maybe injuries overtook them and they lost in the world series. This is the ONLY TEAM in baseball that should take not winning a world series as a legitimate stain on their season. They are the best team in baseball and will likely stay up here unless something horrible happens.
There’s the “entire industry is colluding against Cohen” theory that’s fun all over Mets twitter.
But let me throw my own theory out there for why the Mets consistently can’t get interviews with the level of executives they’ve targeted: maybe the job we all assume is on the table isn’t really what’s being offered.
Here’s everything we’ve heard about this search: we’ve heard names being theorized, and then declining the interview.
They aren’t even willing to sit in an interview.
Now the LOLMets contingent will tell you that the Mets are run poorly and they’ve got a myriad of problems and issues and I have to tell you that even in jest some truth is told.
When Cohen took over he promised a culture change but the guy he brought on as his beard, Sandy Alderson, allowed the culture to fester under his watch during his first go around and let it continue even when he came back. Mickey Callaway was hired under Sandy’s watch. Jared Porter was hired under Sandy’s watch. The organizational hierarchy that stood in the way of multiple allegations of sexual harassment being dealt with was under Sandy’s watch.
If Cohen wanted to turn a new leaf in Flushing, he hired the worst possible person to oversee that change. The Jeff Wilpon excuses end the moment Jared Porter is hired and nobody from the old guard is fired when Sandy was brought back.
But getting back to why they aren’t even accepting the interview, are we to believe that these issues are specifically unique to the Mets and the Mets only? Nobody can be THAT naive.
The Mets list in the beginning of the search was Theo Epstein, Billy Beane and David Stearns. Theo had a 15 minute chat where both he and Cohen agreed they weren’t a fit. Think about that. Despite knowing he wasn’t taking the job, he still agreed with Cohen to tell him that in person. Are we to believe that Theo takes the interview, even to say thanks but no thanks but Peter Bendrix doesn’t bother even getting on a Zoom? Cmon.
Billy Beane was already on the exit ramp from baseball. He’s been the Queen of England in Oakland and the idea that he was going to get back into that grind, at his age, being the CEO of a company that’s about to get a buyout and with young children being on the west coast and uprooting his family now was laughable but every good team checks in. The connection with him and Sandy made sense on paper but not in reality.
We’ll get to David Stearns who didn’t even get a chance to say no because for the second offseason in a row, Brewers controlling owner Mark Attanasio didn’t even open the door to allow him to interview.
Go back to the reporting done last offseason when the Mets first went after the big fish. Cohen was taken aback by MLB policy that team owners had to give formal permission to allow employees to interview with other teams. If we’re supposed to buy into the Bobby Axelrod legend I’m sure some furniture was tossed when Cohen first heard Mark Attanasio decline the Mets overtures for his top guy.
No, what I think is happening are all of the names that were mentioned are being offered lateral moves. That Steve Cohen is not interested in taking his third or fourth choice. That he’s still thinking about the one big fish that he does have a shot at.
To be fair, I don’t blame a single executive who’s declined the Mets overtures if in fact they are only being given the GM job. Post Covid, why uproot your family if you truly enjoy the organization you work for even for the chance at winning a championship in New York? Why leave for a lateral move, even with a likely pay bump, if you aren’t being given full control? In public they have leverage to ask for the top job but I don’t think Cohen is in any rush to fill a position just to satisfy the fanbase who are growing more agitated by the day from the perception that nobody wants the job.
And frankly? GOOD!
Good for those who’ve said thanks but no thanks for knowing their worth and good for the Mets for not feeling pressure to fill a position and giving this up.
Which brings me back to David Stearns. Born and brought up in NY. Harvard grad. Former Mets intern. He’s got the requisite resume, and the roots that would make too much sense. If I’m Stearns, I have some interest in taking over the Mets and becoming the point man. But let’s put a pause on whether he even wants the job-which by the way we don’t know if there’s interest because Cohen hasn’t been formally given the opportunity to interview him.
What do we do about Sandy Alderson? There’s no denying that Sandy offers prospective applicants pause. His son Bryn has ascended to an assistant GM title. So even if Sandy oversells him wanting simply to oversee the business side, there’s someone within the chain of command that exists who in theory could be telling Sandy everything and undermining anybody who would take the big job.
And who would believe Steve Cohen wants to change the culture if the guy with all the stink from the previous f’up’s is still around the building? Doesn’t make a ton of sense. Which brings me to this- why is Cohen hanging on to Sandy Alderson at all?
Cohen’s background at SAC was enough to give some owners pause about what he would bring to the table as one of 30 that the vote to approve his bid was tense. Adding Sandy to his camp was meant to appease those who had fears that he would just run his ship the way he ran his hedgefund- thumbing his nose and doing what ever the hell he wanted. And doing that in NY would certainly have raised heads.
Ultimately the money won out- remember this is one big pot that the rest of them shared and seeing how long the J-Lo/ARod partnership lasted the owners should consider themselves lucky that they got the money they did. But Sandy’s presence calmed alot of the owners fears. Which brings us back to if the industry buzz is that Sandy is the guy preventing them from hiring their guy, why wouldn’t Cohen just ax him?
My guess is that Cohen isn’t backing down from Stearns. My guess is that Stearns will be given the President of Baseball Operations job in a year. That Cohen, thru presumably back channels, has been told Stearns is more than interested. And if waiting a year (actually two) to get the guy he wants to run the team is what has to be done then that’s what has to be done.
The idea that Cohen wouldn’t fire Alderson if he was a hindrance doesn’t make any sense. Cohen settling for his 8th choice doesn’t make sense. He did it once already. Look how that worked out. Cohen has been the guy leading the interviews. He doesn’t seem like the kind of guy to waffle.
Again I’m prepared to be completely wrong but I expect everyone to acknowledge that adults are in the room. That just because they’ve heard a bunch of no’s doesn’t mean the Mets job isn’t an enticing position. If indeed the Mets know they are hiring Stearns after next year and have communicated that to prospective candidates, why would they move to a new org knowing they will have not just Sandy, but also Stearns coming soon? I don’t blame a single one for not wanting their dream job on those terms.
Are the Mets screwing it up? Time will tell. Zack Scott’s DUI was a disastrous decision that could’ve killed someone.
When the Mets hired Scott and Porter they hired them as GM’s. Not as President of Baseball Operations- why? Because Cohen and Sandy didn’t think they were ready for that kind of bump. At the time they felt like perhaps they could grow into that role but that would take time. Once the allegations on Porter came out they had to pivot and they made Scott the acting GM. Was Scott’s DUI a stain on the Mets culture? Or a disastrous decision made by an employee after a charity event held at the home of the owner?
No, I think the signs have always been there that Cohen, in his mind, has already made his hire. The Scott situation left them in a lurch and have them in a bad situation without a top hire. But that can’t be put at the feet of Sandy or Cohen.
If you were to truly believe the Mets that they were looking for a better culture then keeping a guy who just had a DUI was probably not the right look no matter what Buster Olney tries to convince people of. Keeping Sandy is Cohen’s way of having a former GM on board at a very critical juncture of the organization. They have huge decisions to make on Conforto, Thor, and the long term health of the franchise. Keeping Sandy, while nauseous to some, is a must given the important decisions they have to make this offseason and also since we’re headed towards a lockout (from every article I’ve read). Cohen needed a trusted baseball head and looking around the room the only guy left is Sandy.
The Mets have their guy. They just have to wait for him. Unfortunately for Mets fans they will have to wait too.
If you haven’t read my last piece about the the Lindor/Cookie trade read it here.
I had some more thoughts about it so I thought I’d just answer those questions with a fake mailbag so let’s go
Steve from Great Neck writes: What are our options for signing him and what do you think it will take to get it done?
Steve, thanks for the question. There are a few things to consider and I’ll do my best to lay out all of the important factors here:
A. Do the Mets HAVE to sign him before the season? No. But as Sandy alluded to in the press conference they made the trade with the understanding that he’s on a one year deal (negating the value of prospect return) but with optimism that when team brass reach out to his agents they can work something out long term.
And they should be confident. They have the richest owner in baseball and a man who made a ton of money in 2020 while all of us were making Tik Toks. They can be as aggressive as they want and the assumption is that they will work something out prior to Spring Training because its in the best interest of the team to know where they stand with him contractually and be certain of the price tag moving forward because they have a few other extensions with homegrown players like Noah Syndegaard and Michael Conforto to work out as well.
B. Is it in the best interest of both parties to sign him before the season? Yes. Lindor and his agents understand the current financial economy of baseball. Covid has for sure taken some bite out of the financial pie and it will be interesting to see how they use that in the CBA talks coming up after the conclusion of the 2021 season. Lindor knows the Mets and Steve Cohen want to make a splash and he can use that excitement to negotiate in good faith.
Since Lindor has come into the league he has been one of the most charismatic and best two players in the game. The notion that he would have to prove he can play in NY is silly. Besides, the Mets aren’t paying for past production for a 27 year old, they are paying for the player he will be, a superstar two way shortstop who can hit in 3 hole and produce like few can entering his prime. This is his time to get the $30M+ extension for sure.
For the Mets its easy to see why its in their best interest. There’s cost certainty moving forward so they can move on to extensions for Thor and Conforto but there’s also the need to go all the way with Cohen’s first splash. Not completing an extension would make this deal feel incomplete and would remove some of the excitement and put Mets fans right back into the air of despair they constantly seem to be in.
But now there are rumors that the Padres are moving towards extending Tatis Jr. If that’s true it would set the market for Lindor and the other shortstops in the 2021 class. The Mets have done a good job until now of keeping their cards close to their vest, so one has to wonder if the Mets who denied having a period to negotiate a long term contract in trade talks, will try to engage Lindor’s agent sooner than a few weeks.
As for what will get it done? My prediction is that it will be an 8 year $256M deal with an opt out after year 4 so he can try and cash out again. That gives him a better annual per year salary than Machado and would allow him to re-enter the free agent market when presumably the sport of baseball and the economy will have recovered from CoVid.
George from Connecticut writes: What are the chances that the Mets go after Springer? His two way defense/offense will push this team over the hump as favorites in the NL East at the minimum right?
George, thanks for the question and there’s no doubt Springer is a proven commodity not only in the regular season but most importantly in the postseason which the Mets and its fanbase have to be dreaming about with the recent moves they’ve made. But the financial part of this is where it gets dicey.
The Mets and especially Cohen, have made it clear they are hesitant to pay big money for guys who are 30+ because as history tells us those contracts end up biting the team in the butt. So its hard to see the Mets paying Springer’s reported asking price of $150M.
But one of Jared Porter’s key talking points from Thursday’s press conference to announce the deal for Lindor was that they will be creative and wait out the market. It has to be tough for Springer’s agents to hear because it likely meant that any offer the Mets may have made the Mets won’t likely go above that number so Springer has to be wary. He’s 31, so taking a one year deal is risky as owners are likely to cry poor again next year since its reasonable to assume that a portion of this season will be played without any fans in most states.
So Porter and the Mets will wait Springer out and can afford to do so with this trade. The Mets don’t desperately need to add more offense to a team that was 13th last year in runs per game and that was with the team being dead last in all of baseball with runners left in scoring position. To that lineup you just added one of the best run producers in baseball. The Mets have regained leverage to allow Springer to walk and there may be some good to spread the wealth to add another starter to the mix to round out the rotation or add elsewhere.
If I had to guess I’m guessing despite it all Springer will be a Toronto Blue Jay and that it will be announced next week.
Kris from Chicago writes: Is 3B a real priority for the Mets that it makes a Kris Bryant trade something they should actually pursue?
Kris! Great question and curious you spell your name that way too! Run scoring and run prevention is high on the list of priorities for the Mets. Their 3b options are Jeff McNeil, JD Davis and Luis Guillorme. Let’s remove Jeff McNiel who will likely play 2b full time with Guillorme coming in to spell him at times. So right now its either JD Davis or Luis Guillorme. Davis is a bat first guy and Sandy and Jared made it a point to talk up the fact that they need to work on Davis to make him a better defender and the we have a guy by the name of Luis Guillorme” wasn’t a full on stamp of approval for Luis either so its fair to say that 3b is an area of concern defensively for the Mets.
So it makes sense that the Mets are in the market for a 3B. There was talk about the Mets engaging Seattle about Kyle Seager and defensively that makes sense as he was 3rd in UZR ( 6.9) in all of baseball in 2019 before taking a slip to 11th with a -0.4 rating in 2020. But Jerry DiPoto hung up when he realized he wasn’t talking to Brodie.
The Mets were reportedly talking to the Cubs re: Bryant but per Andy Martino of SNY those talks ended weeks ago and per the timeline the Mets moved on to Lindor. Bryant is also entering his walk year and due to make $19M. Per Mike Puma the Cubs were interested in Francisco Alvarez but if the Mets were unwilling to include him in a deal for Lindor, it seems highly unlikely they would offer him up for an inferior player. My prediction is that the Nats make a run at him but watch for the Braves who if the DH doesn’t come to the NL could view Bryant as their offensive spark plug they pay on a one year deal. They have the deep prospect capital to get it done.
There’s pie in the sky re: Arenado but that would be overly indulgent and make no sense since its not a secret that should the Dodgers not trade for Arenado, he will exercise his opt out and try to work out a deal with them next year which is why the Dodgers are playing hardball with their current 3B Justin Turner who wants a 4 year deal.
So where do the Mets turn to for 3B defense? Its clear the Mets want Davis’ bat in the line up but they are concerned what happens to them defensively when he does play there as they made it clear they don’t want him or Dom to see LF extensively next year. My guess is that they keep Davis and Guillorme and resist temptation to trade more prospects for short term help.
Jared from Flushing writes do the Mets go bullpen or get more starter depth?
Excellent question Jared. Honestly? I think they go both. I can see them going after a Collin McHugh over a Corey Kluber or James Paxton since it would cost less because I think they will go after a Hand/Hendriks to overhaul the bullpen. In the end I think the Mets get Hand as they were open about their interest in him since Sandy’s initial press conference. He’s a lefty and has had incredible numbers and would be an incredible weapon. I can also see them reuniting with Justin Wilson if Hand doesn’t pan out as Wilson had some great numbers with the Mets.
Porter and Sandy talked about depth and the need for more pitching. So it makes sense that they would be proactive on that market but again the benefit of the Lindor/Carrasco trade is that they don’t have to be desperate about it. They can sit back and let the market flesh itself out. Even better news for Mets fans is that they are the market. Every agent will try to engage the Mets or remain in their orbit hoping the Mets outbid other teams for their clients services. With the Mets looking like a contender on paper, don’t underestimate guys like Kluber or Paxton signing on for less to ride the wave but both would sign on for one year coming off injury.
Noah and Michael from Midtown, NY ask what’s the latest on a Conforto and Syndegaard extension?
Right now mum is the word but so was word last week this time before the new Mets unleashed the Lindor trade on the world. Things can escalate quickly but the date to look at for both is February 1. That’s the arbitration hearing deadline and while the Mets did agree with Thor on a $9.7M salary for 2021 (which on a pro-rated salary was the same as his 2020 salary) the Mets may want to see how Thor comes back in 2021 before signing him to an extension.
But you have to believe Conforto is the likelier candidate to see a contract worked out before Spring Training.
Cohen and Sandy talked about the need to lock up homegrown talent and it must have been music to Scott Boras’ ears. Boras is notorious for taking his clients to free agency, dropping the personalized to player binder on team’s tables and negotiating off that to get the very best deal for his clients. But Conforto’s comments from this MLB.com article suggest that he would be open to extension talks before entering free agency especially if he felt like the Mets offer something reasonable:
“Everyone always says that Scott is a big free-agency guy and he’s a big fan of that, but Scott … is obviously going to give me the best advice that he feels he has for me as a player and for my career,” Conforto said in February. “Ultimately, it’s my decision. I think it’s somewhat of a misconception about Scott and his clients. He wants what’s best for us. He’s going to give us his best advice. But at the end of the day, he’ll tell you, ‘It’s my client’s decision.’”
Conforto plays corner OF and last year made some refinements to his approach to really open up his game. He’s good for 25+ HR’s and 80 RBI’s with a .260 average every year and if you believe his production from last year was no fluke then he’s likely entering hte prime of his career having made the adjustments that will see his numbers jump. Especially hitting in this lineup with Lindor in it you would assume Conforto gets more opportunities to produce runs which would only make Boras’ binder thicker and ask larger.
My prediction? The Mets get Conforto to sign for 5 years with an option for a 6th year based on qualifiers for a $21M year average.
Joel from Westchester writes what happens to the Mets long term if they just sign everybody?
Joel, you must be referring to this article Joel Sherman of the Post wrote re: contracts not being done in a vacuum for the Mets. Its true. The Lindor and Conforto extensions will draw a line in teh sand on future salary commitments especially if the Mets don’t have enough reinforcements in the pipeline to refill the roster at minimal expense.
Cohen spoke about building a team like the Dodgers. They are undoubtedly the best team in baseball and have a top 10 farm system. The Yankees are like that too. That’s the end goal for Cohen.
But Joel raises some important concerns regarding future roster construction issues that can come with handing out multi-year extensions for all of these players. But that’s where Porter and Zack Scott come into play. They were brought in for their abilities to identify players that could play at minimal expense to the payroll. Its easy to identify Lindor as someone to acquire.
This is why the call to build depth isn’t just GM talk from Jared Porter. While the $210M competitive tax isn’t a line the Mets can’t cross, it would have to be justified especially in year one of the Cohen experience.
I did a less than scientific payroll experiment for 2022. Per Spotrac, the Mets have $68M committed for 2022. Let’s say we sign Lindor and Conforto to the extensions I suggested above, that means $32M for Lindor and $21M for Conforto that means $53M. Let’s assume some generous raises (note I’m not an expert so this is a likely bad estimate) for arbitration and pre arbitration candidates and that means another $45M in salary commitments.
So that means our payroll is now at $166M. If the competitive tax remains at $210M that means we have $44M to get to the competitive tax and that’s assuming Mets don’t cross the tax this year. So they may have even more to spend. Not a bad spot to be in but will require some forward thinking trades to get depth and some below market deals. This is where Zack Scott and Jared Porter will be judged. While there’s plenty of work to be done, especially on the SP depth, there’s reason to believe that if the top 6 prospects take steps forward the Mets can be really dangerous.
Thanks for all the fake mail and let’s keep it coming. The Mets have a pretty awesome future and let’s take this in before the team takes the field for 2021 that this season will be exciting!
I was getting into my car with my dad in the passenger seat, and two annoyed kids who just went to the pediatrician’s office complaining in the back seat when I removed my phone from my back pocket before sitting down. By force of habit I looked at the screen when I saw the alert from Jeff Passan:
The New York Mets are deep into talks on a deal to acquire Francisco Lindor from the Cleveland Indians, sources tell ESPN.
I reflexively pressed hard on my brake. The car was in park.
My father concerned by my expression asked if everything was ok. “Yes” I said comically happy, “everything is great!”
Those are words I wouldn’t have used a year ago after it was becoming painfully clear that Steve Cohen may not end up owning the team. But a lot has changed over the past year. And this being one of them. To take from Ken Rosenthal’s latest story title “The Mets are a big-market bully again”.
Here is the deal:
Full trade, per sources:
To Mets: Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco.
To Indians: Amed Rosario, Andrés Giménez, Josh Wolf, Isaiah Greene.
As Sandy Alderson said in his press conference to announce the trade yesterday “it came at a signficant cost”. The Mets traded away some of their infield depth in Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez and some of their prospect depth in Josh Wolf and Isiah Greene but got back in return a superstar shortstop and a starting pitcher locked in for 3 years at a team friendly rate.
To say the Mets got the better end is not scratching the surface on what this move does to the franchise. Here’s a few thoughts I had while listening to Sandy Alderson (Team President) and Jared Porter (General Manager) during yesterday’s press conference to formally announce the trade:
NOBODY knew this deal was coming- In years past, the Mets leaked like a bucket full of water with holes. Not anymore. This is another reminder that it is no longer business-as-usual in Flushing. This regime kept this under wraps until the deal was complete and kudos to them for being able to do so.
Sandy said that this deal had been in the works since the beginning of the offseason and went from just Lindor to including Carrasco. He also mentioned that while he was averse to trading away from a thin prospect system, the ability to get Lindor and a top flight SP without sacrificing the top five or six prospects in the system was an opportunity the team couldn’t pass up.
The cost of acquisition was high- Make no mistake, the Mets traded away not one but two starting caliber shortstops with Amed Rosario estimated to earn around $2.2M per Spotrac in his first year of arbitration and two more arbitration years and Andres Gimenez two years away from arbitration and total 5 years of cost controlled service time. They also gave up two guys with untapped potential in Wolf and Greene, who were in the bottom part of a system that’s ranked around 20 in most publications eyes.
Questions came fast and furious about what this means for the rest of the infield depth and Sandy was quick to point out Luis Guillorme still existed who is an excellent defensive IF and Jeff McNeil has some versatility to play second and third but the real questions were about third base.
Jared Porter pointed out that the major league developmental team would work with JD Davis to improve his defensive ability so he could offer more value at 3B but in answering a question about what’s next he did say that they were looking for good defensive players with versatility to play multiple positions. So its not clear yet what the Mets plan on doing at 3B or if Davis is a permanent solution but it bears watching how they deploy Davis if his defense doesn’t improve. Perhaps its a pipe dream but there are rumblings that the Mets checked in on Kris Bryant. But given the backlash from everyone on the Darvish trade the Cubs may be hesitant to give up Bryant for nothing despite him also being a year out from free agency.
Acquisition over cost- This quote keeps coming to mind and once again drew focus for me when Sandy answered questions about Lindor’s signability. One of the biggest drawbacks of the former ownership group were their shyness to dip their toes into the deep waters of big time free agency thanks to their dabbling in Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. Those restrictions clearly do not apply to Steve Cohen who promised Mets fans that they would spend when appropriate.
This seems appropriate. Many throughout baseball expect the Mets and Lindor to discuss a contract extension and for an agreement to happen prior to the season that will set the market for next year’s big SS class which will include Corey Seager (if this Lindor trade and signing don’t exacerbate urgency from the Dodgers to engage him as well), Trevor Story (who won’t be affected by the Nolan Arenado trade rumblings) and Javier Baez (you get the feeling the Cubs will be shedding him as well soon).
But Sandy spoke with optimism that while the return was based on Lindor being a player signed to one year, and the fact that the Mets were taking on all of Carrasco’s future salary commitment (two years at $24M and a vesting option for a third year at $14M) that they didn’t require a period to negotiate with Lindor’s agent. That’s the confidence an owner flush with cash can bring. The fact is they leveraged that into a lesser return to the Indians although the return the Indians got for both was fair in most player evaluation’s eyes. Notice I didn’t say equal.
Speaking of cost, does this mean the Mets are out on other big named free agents? Probably not- I need to be completely honest here- I can’t see the Mets signing Springer now unless the Mets either get creative to finesse some salary off the books, and Porter consistently said that they would be opportunistic and creative to make the team better, or if Springer takes less than we all think.
But Sandy made it clear that while the $210M Luxury tax threshold is an important line of demarcation, it isn’t a line that he has been told he can’t cross. Again expressing ownership’s new outlook on being competitive and being willing to pay the price when necessary. The Mets won’t spend like drunken sailors but it all depends on how drunk they get amirite?
Sandy’s “appetite for more talent” really drives home the point that the Mets are operating under a new ideal. This team has a few more questions to address like how they will address their defense in centerfield, what to do about the back up catching position, how else to beef up their bullpen. Porter made it clear when he said what Mets fans have said all along- there’s always a need for pitching. More pitching. So it will be interesting to see how the Mets address their CF position but this next question is the more pressing concern.
How is the lack of clarity on the DH affecting the Mets in free agency? There likely won’t be an answer for another few weeks which will leave guys like Marcell Ozuna available as the offseason goes on so when Sandy and Jared say that the market will dictate how they proceed- he’s right. But it affects the Mets pursuit of Springer and Jackie Bradley Jr if it forces them to choose between Nimmo and Dom Smith. Nimmo has the longer track record in terms of productivity offensively but he’s miscast as a CF just like Dom Smith is miscast as a corner OF. In an ideal world, Dom is the Mets 1B/DH and so is Pete Alonso and the Mets sign Springer/or JBJ moving Nimmo to a corner OF spot.
But MLB has dragged its feet on the DH situation and while the feeling is that in the next CBA that discussion will resolve itself, the reality is that the Mets can’t really move confidently forward without knowing where baseball stands on the issue in 2021. The inclusion of the DH in 2020 felt like a concession to players to get a deal done but for whatever reason despite its success MLB won’t resolve that issue just yet.
In the new reality however, the Mets can spend on CF and hope that the issue of the DH resolves itself in the Mets favor. And Sandy again reiterated that it is in the Mets best interest that the DH comes to the NL next year and moving forwad.
Luckily for us yesterday was business as usual and nothing crazy and unprecedented happen. Smh.
Here’s the only thing I will say: what we watched was a culmination of everything Trump has mangled his cult into which are loyalists to him and not to the country they lie that they love.
Moving on.
The Giants held the world’s greatest timed press conference (which you can watch here) to announce that Dave Gettleman would be back.
“Giants general manager Dave Gettleman undeniably had a strong offseason in 2020. That the Giants still only won six games illustrates just how low things were after Gettleman’s first two seasons.“
A few of the nuggets which I’ll address-
Giants need to get Daniel Jones more weapons- Ok that’s fine, and while there are a number of really good free agent WR’s- with Allen Robinson being at the top of my list- the tougher thing to justify is Gettlemen saying that he wants Jason Garrett back. There’s something to the idea of continuity. Eli Manning had 2 offensive coordinators ( John Hufnagel from 2004-2006; Kevin Gilbride from 2007-2014) for the first 10 years of his career in which he won two super bowls. But being the 31st ranked offense and having zero creativity in the offensive packages caused the team to rely too much on a defense that played above its talent thanks to creative scheming.
I know Jason Garrett has friends in some very top places. But this team didn’t show the kind of improvement that you would want to see and in fact took a step back from Pat Shurmur’s offense. This isn’t hyperbole. You can look at virtually every offensive metric you want. This was about scheme and talent. Both areas had to be ugpraded and John Mara chose continuity. You know what insanity is….right?
Adding better weapons may help in both the draft and free agency but this team has a problem with situational play calling and overall scheme that won’t be solved completely by a Jaylen Waddle or his ilk.
Mara believes that decisions made in 2018 have hampered this team- How is this a reason NOT to fire Dave Gettleman and rather a crutch for Gettleman to use to justify him surviving another year? It boggles the mind. Mara distanced himself from the notion that he pushed Gettleman on any of the decisions but it was tough to understand the rationale for giving Gettleman a longer leash to dig himself out of the mess that he created simply because they were in it till the last game in a pathetic division. It doesn’t make much sense. Speaking of decisions made in 2018….
John Mara onSaquon Barkley “I certainly expect he will be a Giant for a long time”-Oh.
I love Saquon. I think he’s a top 3 RB in this league. But tying up significant cap space a year before we have to make a dump him, deal him or sign him decision on Daniel Jones is the kind of stupidity that will lock this team up moving forward. The Giants have a talent issue but suggesting that signing Saquon to a big money contract when he has played 31 of a possible 48 games is extremely risky and that’s before we even get into the discussion about whether its smart to invest that kind of money into the RB position on one player. Its not.
There’s plenty of things to be optimistic about the Giants. The offensive line seems to be figuring itself out. Andrew Thomas is NOT a bust. Joe Judge is the right coach for this team and has the fan base pumped about what he can do. Gettleman DID have a great 2020 year from the draft (where he did ok) to free agency (where he absolutely hit a HR). There’s evidence he’s a solid talent identifier. But what he isn’t is a modern GM.
He doesn’t know how to leverage assets. He has not shown he can build a complete roster in either stop. And while his Giants roots are what got him the job, the last four years should’ve cost him the job.
Mara did warn that a 6 win season would not be enough next year. That he needed to see significant progress and while Mara will never be “playoffs or bust” the implication was there. Either get Judge the players he needs to make steps forward or else.
What was made clear is that the love this organization has for Joe Judge is clear. This is his team and Gettleman knows his future is tied to how much talent this team can acquire for next year. Maybe even hiring Judge helped Gettleman. Judge is now the face of this franchise and represents the culture the way that Tom Coughlin used to. Its a move from the old playbook by the Maras and Tisches who love the idea of having continuity much like the Steelers have had since the 70’s with 3 head coaches over almost 50 years (which is stunning to think about much less type).
But the Giants are a team wandering around having not made enough progress because its stuck in a time machine and they went back to the past again. Stuck there. All of the hope is on Joe Judge pulling them out. Its on Gettleman again to do it much to the chagrin of most of the fan base. For Mara, he had better be right.
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