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Week 11 picks and suggestions

If you’re trying to put together a list of traits a team needs to be successful and you gloss over the championship teams of the past, more times than not they had a good to great defense and a strong running game.

Don’t believe me? Look at the Jets of the past two years. A rookie qb not being asked to do much, a strong offensive line that made holes for a good running game and a great defense. If the last week has been evidence of anything its that Mark Sanchez has been holding them back and changing the formula to a pass heavy offense was a big mistake.

So when Ravens players are clamoring for Ray Rice to get the ball 30 times they aren’t talking smack about the passing game as they are telling the offensive game planners that the offense should do what they are successful at already. What about the Packers you ask? They didn’t go on their run until James Starks established himself and gave them the threat of a competent running game.

The Giants and Packers have success because their QBs have been playing at such a high level (Eli during the 4th and Aaron during, well, very quarter). Their running games notwithstanding are the anomaly and not the rule. Teams that run well and can hide the inadequacies of the passing game will always be more successful than teams who force the issue and go for the home run.

Teams who can run in December and January will be successful. This is why the Packers of the world, can parade themselves as world champion favorites all they want, but if they can’t run the ball and don’t give off the threat of a run game, will suffer.

Now on to week 11 games and picks:
Editors Note: I picked the Jets by -7 which I lost. New rule: never bet against Tebow.

FALCONS (-6.5) over Titans- Its difficult to pick the Titans who can bring it defensively one week and not the next. By the way, a poll conducted by Forbes said Michael Vick was the most hated man in the NFL. Now this was done by fans. Within the confines of the white lines that is the furthest from the truth. Vick is the most liked player in the NFL amongst players. Why bring up Vick? Because if you asked players they would say Cortland Finnegan. The guy is a douchebag and that’s when you just look at him. He picks fights with players. Shows you exactly who and what level fan is voting for this.

Bills (+3) over DOLPHINS- I gotta admit, the Dolphins had me going. They were looking like a pretty solid team but I see that they have 2 wins now so they can rest easy. By the way, it looks promising that they are going to end up with Matt Barkley who in my opinion is in the class of Andrew Luck. So maybe they DO KNOW what they are doing.

Bengals (+7) over RAVENS- I like this Bengal team. I really do. I think AJ Green is a beast and will play. I love their run game and without Ray Lewis, the Ravens are playing without its heart and soul. Will be interesting to see what happens..

Jags (+1) over BROWNS- next.

Raiders (+1) over VIKINGS- Carson Palmer I want to believe in you. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. Let’s see.

LIONS (-7) over Panthers- here’s a litmus test for the Lions. If they blow out the Panthers its a big deal and a huge momentum boost heading into Thursdays showdown with the Packers. If they beat the Panthers by a FG, they may not be ready for Thursday but there’s still a grey area to see where they are skill wise. If they lose, let’s quit the restore the roar crap.

PACKERS (-14) over Bucs- Trap game. Or warm up for Thursday? I pick the latter. Go Pack GO!

Cowboys (-7) over REDSKINS- This will be a litmus test for these Cowboys. Either they go in and DESTROY the Redskins after which every single waking hour on NFL Network will be dedicated to Tony Romo and the Boys being contenders and only team able to challenge the Packers. OR they are the Cowboys of old and have a let down. Let’s see.

NINERS (-10) over Cardinals- Two points:
1. I think Rodney Harrison is becoming my favorite in studio analyst. He speaks from the heart and is often proved right.
2. His opinion that the Niners MAY BE the best team in football isn’t that far off, unless you are drinking the yellow colored kool aid.

Last week, I saw Jim Harbaugh out coach, out wit and out fundamental Tom Coughlin who preaches fundies on a daily basis. As for this game, I expect the Niners to continue to unleash Alex Smith: the passer on the world with Frank Gore nursing an injury and a big game against Baltimore coming on Thursday.

Seahawks (+3) over RAMS- Hawks have an underrated D.

BEARS (-4.5) over Chargers- Its not December yet and I am aboard the Bear train. Go ahead jump on board. This may be the only team capable of knocking off the Packers.

GIANTS (-6) over Eagles- classic letdown game for the G-Men with Vick AND Maclin not coming to Metlife and Jackson playing with a broken heart. Gives way for guys who are fighting for a roster spot and those guys are the most difficult to oppose. Prepare yourselves Giants fans for the Dream Team himself: Vince Young. If the Giants can’t cover a 6 point spread at home against a disappointing Eagle team playing without two of its biggest offensive weapons, they don’t deserve to win the NFC EAST plain and simple.

PATRIOTS (-15) over Chiefs- You’re trying to tell me that Tyler Palko is his real name and not a stage name? So this isn’t a make believe game? So how come that guy Brady’s hair looks like he stepped off the set of a Vidal Sassoon commercial? Yeah ok- I’m sure this is “real.”

Enjoy week 11 football fans!

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Jets post game reax loss to Denver

What can you say about this guy Tebow that hasn’t been said?  I’ll let the national script play itself out.  95 yards with over 5 minutes left against a Jets defense that had pretty much shut them down.  But the fact remains, that he wins and say what you will about his mechanics and how the option offense won’t work at the NFL level, but he’s a winner.  I dont want to hear anything but his 4-1 record.  Tim Tebow is singlehandedly changing the conversation from his being unable to make an NFL throw (which hasn’t changed: he can’t do it on a regular basis) and being unable to be a viable starting QB option in the NFL to making plays and being a football player.

So this morning before you ask who’s to blame and what’s wrong with the Jets, maybe the question you should be asking is: IS THIS the real Jets team?

– Those who’ve watched the Jets this season can admit this now after watching the Denver game: Mark Sanchez has regressed.  We’re not saying he’s a Tebow now, Sanchez was given the chance to  sling the rock 40 times which was twice the amount of times that Tebow threw it, but Sanchez isn’t making simple reads and throwing it four and five yards short.  I wrote this in the last postgame reax column about the Pats loss: Sanchez was NOT making the simple throws you expect QBs in this league to make.  This is his third year in this system under Brian Schottenheimer.  This is not something new and he’s not green anymore (he is literally, not figuratively), the playbook can and SHOULD at this point be opened up to him and yet Sanchez is proving week after week that he’s not ready for that responsibility.

The Jets this year forced the issue with Sanchez’ progression.  The theory was, give him another deep threat.  Put more passing attempts in the game plan and let’s watch and see.  He’s going to have career highs in passing attempts, completions, touchdowns and INT’s this year.  Well, it would go without saying that he would do these things when he’s attempting more passes but there is evidence of small incremental progress there.  But with the Jets in win now mode its difficult to really see that.  Again, here were the throws that I saw where an average NFL QB can make and Sanchez just couldn’t.

10:56 3rd quarter Bad throw on 2nd and goal, play set up beautifully but he just throws it way too high for Keller to make a catch on it.
2nd and 6 on 4:33 3rd quarter- Underthrows Plaxico Burress by five yards.
3rd and 6- Behind the receiver- TD Denver
3rd and 6 4th quarter 9:19- Doesn’t step into throw.  Rushes throw, and throws in front of Santonio Holmes by 3-4 yards preventing the Jets from getting a first down.  If Sanchez had thrown it into the middle of the field instead, where there was NOBODY, Holmes walks in for a touchdown.

– These plays are costing his team a game but again, the major difference is that Tim Tebow’s limitations are not preventing Denver from being creative.  They are finding ways to win despite Tim Tebow’s lack of making a throw.  Look, as many examples as there are for Sanchez’ ineptitude as a QB, there are plenty more of Tebow and up until that final drive EVERY TIME he went three and out in that game he was being showered with boos.  Tebow is the most polarizing figure in sports.  He does not apologize for who he is spiritually and as a person, which I find ridiculous that he has to make excuses for his overt Christianity, but he makes no excuses when he plays poorly but the guy makes plays.  At the end of the game, he knew he had to take over.  The Jets had forced Denver into 8 three and outs out of their twelve drives.  EIGHT THREE AND OUTS.  Thats not a winning formula.  So how does a team with an inept QB win a game like this?

Special teams: Out of their 12 drives, the Broncos started on the Jets side of the field 5 times.
Defense:  That pick six, on a horrendous throw by Sanchez helped alot.  But look at the Jets offense, minus Shonn Greene for pretty much the entire game and playing without LDT to begin with, only rushed for 83 while the Broncos ran for 125.  A stout defense and good special teams can ALWAYS help.

– Instead of the usual breakdown of one series of either the Jets or Giants, I wanted to get into the final drive by Tebow and look at all the tackles and missed opportunities the Jets had to clinch this game

“the only way you get beat right now is if something crazy happens.  Your defense is playing so well”- Famous last words from Mike Mayock as the Jets were punting to the Broncos

1st-10, DEN4 5:54 T. Tebow passed to E. Royal to the right for 8 yard gain- Jim Leonhard ends this game right here.  This is a safety.  Tebow makes a boneheaded play to throw a pass across the  line of scrimmage and Eddie Royal misses a tackle by Jim Leonhard and Mike Mayock says it right: “That was scary.”  –1
2nd-2, DEN13 5:25 T. Tebow rushed to the right for 15 yard gain- Tebow running the option and breaks 3 tackles and nearly escapes another, so the Jets have now missed three more.  -3
1st-10, DEN28 4:43 T. Tebow passed to D. Thomas to the left for 9 yard gain Shotgun, rolls to his left and hits his guy on an out.
2nd-1, DEN37 4:36 T. Tebow incomplete pass to the left- Empty backfield, shotgun and Tebow throws a wobbly backshoulder throw that goes 5 yards short.
3rd-1, DEN37 4:32 T. Tebow rushed to the right for 7 yard gain Tebow in shotgun takes it himself and escapes two would be tacklers but gets taken down but not before he gets the first down. 
1st-10, DEN44 3:53 T. Tebow rushed to the right for 9 yard gain Runs right by Darrelle Revis, who as Deion Sanders said so perfectly made a business decision and basically oley’d the tackle and let him go by him and then Tebow runs over another Jet defender. -1
2nd-1, NYJ47 3:45 T. Tebow rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain Empty backfield goes right up the gut himself and breaks two more tackles. -2
1st-10, NYJ44 3:02 T. Tebow incomplete pass to the left Throws it on the ground.  Tebow in the pocket and can’t seem to get a good rhythm going when he’s there.  
2nd-10, NYJ44 2:57 T. Tebow passed to D. Rosario to the left for 18 yard gain While being hit the ball comes out wobbly but hits his receiver for another huge gain.  
1st-10, NYJ26 2:31 L. Ball rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain – keeping the defense honest.  That’s all.  They are in field goal range. THEY SHOULD BE GOING VANILLA trying to get a few more yards and make it a makeable field goal.  Remember the Broncos are ONLY down 3 they don’t have to go for the TD.  
2nd-7, NYJ23 2:00 T. Tebow rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain Fakes the throw to his right and keeps it and runs into the heart of the D.
3rd-4, NYJ20 0:58 T. Tebow rushed to the left for 20 yard touchdown. Here’s where things really come unglued in Denver.  Don’t believe me?  There’s a knucklehead who comes on to the field to try and get cured of leprosy by touching Tebow’s jersey.  EVEN if the Broncos don’t get the TD, they have a very makeable FG here and the game is at the very least going into OT.  But what happens?  Jets do an all out blitz for the first time ALL GAME.  They had not called a single blitz all game, had stayed disciplined in their gaps and Tebow makes one guy miss who’s nibbling at his knees.  Eric Smith comes up WAYYY too hard and leaves the outside wide open for Tebow to go around to get the first down at the first least and then some as Tebow navigates himself through the melee going on and finds the end zone.  -1 
M. Prater made PAT

A defense can not constantly be asked to pitch shutouts against really good football players because at some point that really good football player WILL make a play.  The Broncos game plan was this: keep the score close.  Wait for Tebow to make a play.  They did their part, and Tebow did his.  That final defensive call was totally moronic.  Don’t over commit.  Why break discipline?  That falls on Rex.  The offensive game calling falls on Schottenheimer.  The playmaking falls on the players.  The Special teams miscues which continued falls on Westhoff.  This was a complete utter breakdown of the highest order and this final drive, the Jets defense finally broke and Tebow broke them.  TEBOW broke them.  They had nothing left and were incapable of making a play at that point in the game.  It was so plain to see.  As a matter of fact, it was painful to see if you were a Jet fan.

– So what do we make of this loss?  Well, let’s break this down.  The skinny?  The Jets have no choice BUT to win out.  They have to win all six of their remaining games to even begin thinking about the playoffs.  The Jets now don’t have the tie breaker within the AFC against the Raiders, Ravens, and Broncos, three teams that will most likely be with a similar record as the Jets.  The Jets have to win out and now hope some of those guys lose all their games.  Basically the Jets have put themselves in a position that is untenable.  IF the Jets want to win they MUST go back to ground and pound.  The Broncos put the ball in Tebow’s hands and don’t ask him to do anything outside of his comfort zone.  Why would the Jets expect Sanchez to?  Or maybe it would be better if the Jets lost the next two games and let Sanchez just sling the ball and get more and more comfortable being a pocket passer and get more comfortable with the recievers in real game situations.  He’s not yet in that place where the Jets can trust him in those spots.

The quick foolhardy explanation will be that the Jets defense choked.  That the offense sucks.  I’m not saying either of those explanations aren’t good, I’m just saying that the Jets need to re-evaluate what they are doing on offense.  Brian Schottenheimer has NEVER been one of my favorite Jets.  In fact, I’ve thought that his up and down play calling ability has limited Sanchez in a great way but Schotty needs to put him in those quick step slant screen options where he makes a very quick read.  When Sanchez is out there shuffling his feet, pointing at some receiver and throwing on the run, he’s in trouble.  Sanchez doesn’t know when to loft the ball or throw it soft or when to drill it in.  Its one speed with his throws and it goes back to basic quarterbacking.  Remember last week’s dumbest play in the history of football?  Those are the kind of plays that get you benched but he gets more burn virtue of being a number 5 selection in the draft.

But that slack will only go a long way.  The rest of the season in my opinion, will be Sanchez fighting for his job.  The Jets are in a win now mode and for a majority of that game, the Jets defense was more than stifling, it was Super Bowl calibre and when it came time for the final drive Tebow was in a familiar position: his team needed him to make a play and more times than not, Tebow will make that play.  I won’t say the defense choked in that spot, I’d rather more of the onus on the offense and its inability to keep the Jets defense from being in that position on the road.  Tebow was a one man wrecking crew but it was because the defense had done such a stellar job all game that it was difficult for them to continue to do so when it was clearly Tebow time.

For the Jets to make the playoffs I think they have to go 60/40 run/pass.  They have to put Sanchez into easier reads as an offense.  They need to dumb down the offense.  If you see them continue to sling it, Sanchez had better make the throws and the plays to win the Jets some games.  If not, you can bet Mike Tannenbaum will be on the phone with the Colts come draft time giving up his draft picks for the right to either select Luck or trade for Peyton Manning

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