I’ve got to warn you, I’m on a football rush. I just devoured 3 magazine previews, the last episode of Hard Knocks followed by the America’s Game series on the Saints, last year’s Super Bowl champions. I’m going to say that my first weeks worth of picks are void of any favoritism after watching the shows and reading the “experts” predictions on the upcoming season.
In my last piece I wrote that its dumb to write prediction pieces but it was almost part of the job of doing so. What’s great about writing one is that everyone all but expects you to get about 90 % of your predictions wrong. If you get a division winner right you get all the praise. Following the Super Bowl year the Giants had, I picked them to win the NFC East and be a dominant team. Maybe I was right because I watched that team every single week and consumed every single article like I was Joey Chestnut on the Fourth of July facing a batch of hot dogs. I went with my gut feeling on that team and I was right, they went on to have a great year, winning their division and locking up the number one seed.
Of course I also picked the Bills to make a surprise run that season so what the hell do I know? But that’s the point, everyone has that really genius moment and the really dumb moment. Its a fact, no one gets them all right.
But you stick by your picks and you stick by what you know and what you feel. So with that bit of overused advice I give you my week one picks:
(home team in caps)
THURSDAY, Sept. 9th
SAINTS (-6) over Vikings- This is the most hyped up match up of the opening weekend for the obvious reasons. Brett Favre. Super Bowl banner being unveiled. New Orleans, Gulf Coast region celebrating. The first game of the NFL season. The NFL has made it a point to feature the defending Super Bowl champion on the first week and usually the whole moment of unveiling their championship in front of their home fans usually adds up to a victory and I’m not going against that. Also add to the fact that the Saints are 10-0 in their last ten home openers. The Super dome will be rocking and I think the Saints jump on the Vikes early and often. I was going to say that it was a close game but I remember being in the stands when the Giants opened up the 2008 season with Michael Strahan coming out of the Lombardi Trophy blow up and seeing how pumped up the stadium was and the feeling never relented. I remember when New Orleans re-opened the Super Dome after Katrina and just watching the fans celebrate when they blocked that punt early in the game, sometimes you don’t need to be in the stadium to know that it was probably one of the loudest scenes in any sporting venue. I don’t expect it to be any less noisy. Saints win this one going away.
Sunday, September 12th,
GIANTS (-7) over Panthers- This has to be the game where the Giants set the tone for the rest of the season. The last time these two teams faced off, Matt Moore looked like Joe Montana and the Panthers bullied the Giants in the very final game at the old Giants stadium. Enter 2010 and guess who’s up first in the new Meadowlands stadium? There’s a sense of pride here to restore order in the NFC and the East, in a division that should be competitive right out of the gate. One interesting factor could be Steve Smith (you know, that other Smith in Carolina), who is seeking revenge on Michael Johnson who he said took a cheap shot on him and plans to give him a nice present on the field. But the new Steve Smith has been excellent when he’s seen the field. A few Giants are hurting and are going to be playing less than a hundred percent for the rest of the season but that’s a fact of life in the NFL. No one plays 100 percent unless you’re the punter or the kicker.
I do see signs of cracking here with the Giants. I’m not sure what to think of Brandon Jacobs silent treatment to the media when being asked about his new role on the team, being the back up. As any prideful player, he took it hard but if this team is going to succeed, its with Brandon Jacobs playing a role and it can’t be as the pouty faced giant. It has to be the angry Giant and maybe that’s the Brandon Jacobs we get for the remainder of the season. He has NOT looked good and Ahmad Bradshaw has looked like the more capable back because of his ability to slip tackles and make guys miss. Jacobs’ run you over style can only work for so long before teams begin to wear you down. At some point Jacobs has to get used to the back up role because of the price he pays playing his style. He’s a complementary back and to be honest so is Bradshaw. The Giants have had complementary backs since Tiki Barber retired but they’ve done well because of the Offensive line who’ll be asked to step up from their performance a year ago in which they were bullied.
What I’m most looking forward to is watching the safety tandem of Antrell Rolle and Kenny Phillips. If Phillips is healthy, it could be the best tandem in the league and they will be very necessary if the Giants hope to win the division like I said they would.
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO- I’m surprised that the Dolphins aren’t getting more love but I will take this sure win. The Chan Gailey era should open up but its looking more and more like the CJ Spiller era is the one that will last longer than Chan will. The Bills have RB’s on the roster but they picked CJ Spiller with the 9th pick and in his preseason debut he showed why, flashing the juke, the moves and the speed that make him one of the more exciting players in the league. What the Bills have to worry about is that they have NOBODY else. They made one mistake during this entire process and that’s not trying to trade Fred Davis who had trade value coming off a 1,000 yard season. He could’ve netted them an extra 3rd at the very least and the Bills could’ve used that to move up in this year’s draft to take a defensive or an offensive linemen. The Bills continue to move at a snail’s pace in terms of rebuilding and this year should be no different. They are playing in one of the toughest divisions in all of the National Football League and they play a Miami team that should be a lot better than people expect. I think they will finish second in the division barring major injuries. Chad Henne is a good QB, and he now has a marquee receiver and a good running game in support. The 3-4 is a system that is working well for the Dolphins and their growth should only continue.
Atlanta (+2.5) over PITTSBURGH- This is not because I think Pittsburgh is going to lose with Dennis Dixon or that the Falcons are a sexy preseason pick. I think its because I see the Falcons pulling one out against a team that is very thin at the QB position and doesn’t have many avenues to go through on this. IF the Falcons can put enough pressure on Dixon and keep him running and moving and not let him set and throw the young’n should make more mistakes than Matt Ryan who I dont think will take a huge step forward but a step in that direction nonetheless.
Lions (+6.5) over BEARS- Forget the fact that the Bears are bringing in as many new fresh faces as the Jets, the most hyped team in the NFL, is. They are bringing in the most overhyped offensive coordinator ever. Mike Martz has done nothing. He came up with an innovative system but its clear that Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk were pretty good and that’s why they won that Super Bowl. The Lions are going to be my surprise team. They are going to sneak away with some wins over the Packers and Vikings and Bears and I say that they sweep the Bears this year. The Lions have a few weapons that they haven’t had since the Wayne Fontes regime when they had Scott Mitchell and Herman Moore and Barry Sanders. Now I’m not saying Jahvid Best is Barry Sanders because NOBODY is Barry Sanders (right Reggie Bush fans? Can we finally put that baby to bed?). But the fact remains that the Lions are a sneaky team and I look for them to pull of the upset of the week against the Bears.
Bengals (+4.5) over PATRIOTS- And this was my thinking before Tom Brady got into a minor fender bender today before practice. No truth to the rumor that it was Bernard Pollard trying to recreate the magic of 2008. I picked the Bengals to win their division and I think they will come out with a very good game plan and win this game going away and scare the daylights out of the rest of football. Recently I’ve seen a few more people getting on the Bengal bandwagon and I dont blame them. The Bengals are a pretty good football team on both sides of the ball and they should do enough on defense to keep the Patriot defense out there longer which is a very good thing for the Bengals.
Browns (+3) over BUCS- This is probably the least likeable match up on opening weekend but the Bucs, with rookie QB Josh Freeman won 2 out of their last 3 and the Browns won 4 out of their last 5 so heading into this season both are feeling pretty good about themselves. How to grade the Browns on their pick up of Jake Delhomme? Its not like the guy didn’t have a full season to correct his playoff horror show. Oh wait, he did. But he’s looked good in the preseason thus far throwing for 2 TD’s and completing almost 80% of his passes for over 345 yards. That could be his line for this game. In fact, I am betting that it WILL be his line for the game.
Broncos (-3) over JAGS- Look, this game comes down to one fundamental fact and its all I need to sway me in this pick: Jesus Loves Tebow. Tebow plays for the Broncos. I predict Tebow sees at least 5 snaps at QB running a spread offense like he did in Florida. The Jags don’t have the personnel to stop them.
Colts (-2.5) over TEXANS- This is the biggest test for the Texans. Can they beat the Colts? They always play them tough and especially at home. But I see Peyton being sharp and going about his business and despite the fact that the Texans have all their guys healthy, this could be Peyton’s deepest pool of receivers that he’s ever had.
TITANS (-6) over the Raiders- Not that I don’t think the Raiders are going to be any good, because I do feel as though the Raiders have the potential to shock some people, but progress can be a slow process especially when it comes to the Al Davis run Raiders. The Titans pound them with the pass early and run late. –
Packers (-3) over EAGLES- One of the better late afternoon games, the Packers look like a team on the mend after a disappointing end to their season. I like their team and the personnel they have and the offense, but their defense rarely gets credit. Kevin Kolb is the new guy in charge of what is being deemed a very deep set of skill position players in the NFL. But we’ve seen teams with the deepest roster do a whole lot of nothing in the past. Remember last year when the Giants had the deepest pool of defensive ends? They had the deepest hole in the sack statistical category. Remember how the Cowboys have had the deepest pool of overall talent in the NFL? They’ve won exactly one playoff game in almost 2 decades. Having the deepest pool of whatever means nada in this league, its about being the most prepared and the best equipped to handle the pressure and rigors of the NFL on a weekly basis. This is not the Eagles year this year.
49ers (-3) over SEAHAWKS- I don’t know what Pete Carroll is up to in the great North west, but I hope that there is a semblance of a plan because that is a pretty good WR they ran out of their. By the way they are paying TJ Houshdmandzedeh next year whatever the difference is between what the Ravens gave him and his $7.5 mil he’s owed. The Niners have the team capable of winning that division. That’s not to suggest that they are an elite team or a team to watch for in the NFC because it won’t take much to win the division. It will take a little bit more time for Alex Smith but he’s getting there. How good the Niners are is going to depend on how quickly Smith grows up.
RAMS (+4) over Cardinals- The former team from St Louis against the current one. I give the Kurt Warner trophy to the winner of the game and that would be the Rams. Yes, I know their best WR is out and they are starting a rookie at QB. Yes, I know that they are going up against a team that went to the NFC Divisional round last year and have Larry Fitzgerald on the team (the best WR in the game). But I like Sam Bradford. Some guys are winners and while watching him play at 2AM on NFL Network (who upheld their promise to show every single NFL preseason game), I thought that he was a winner. He’s a confident guy amidst an offensive line that could potentially get him seriously injured. Meanwhile the Cardinals have Derek Anderson. If I had a friend who was a Browns fan that could tell me about how confident he is of an offense led by Derek Anderson I’m sure it wouldn’t be too good.
Cowboys (-3.5) over REDSKINS- Awesome Sunday night game. Honestly, this Albert Haynesworth situation has me totally confused and reminds me of instances where a guy has completely lost his mind and should have a mental check up before he ever gets a physical one. He accepted a $21 million check to play this season and blasted the franchise? Maybe on his list of grievances he should’ve put “gave too much money to players who don’t appreciate it”. Somehow Daniel Snyder has come away looking like the good guy in this saga if you could even imagine a situation that he’d be in to deserve that. Getting back to the game though, the Redskins are a decent enough team and with McNabb, they should have a few more wins than they had last year. The Cowboys though should put a lackluster pre season behind them and score points in bunches.
Monday, September 13th
Chargers (-5) over CHIEFS- Seems a bit high for a game that is a little bit closer in terms of team than people think. I still like the Chargers and think that the Philip Rivers to Legedu Nanee connection should be a popular radio call amongst the youtubers come Tuesday morning.
Ravens (+2.5) over JETS- forget the fact that the Jets have Darrelle Revis coming back. Did you see their offense? Their first team offense will not have Santonio Holmes and they are going up against a team that picked up yet another offensive weapon in TJ Toolongtotypehisnameh. The fact is, the Jets have looked sloppy and despite the old adage that its the preseason and it doesn’t mean much, well does it mean much if the offense has been looking the exact same way every single week? The defense looks for real and they will have a much better defense than the Ravens but I just think the Ravens score enough to give the Jets their first L of the season.
ENJOY WEEK ONE!
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