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Daily Rounds 1/4/2012

And so it went in the NFL as more and more retentions and dismissals were announced.  Dean Spanos, owner of the San Diego Chargers, announced that GM AJ Smith and head coach Norv Turner would be returning for the 2012 season but according to San Diego Union Tribune reporter Kevin Acee, both know that if they don’t make the playoffs in 2012, they will not get a similar vote of confidence from the owner Spanos.  Acee went on to write that much of this falls on AJ Smith, the GM and he knows it.  Meanwhile, Andy Reid was given a vote of confidence by the Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie.  Les Bowen of the Philly Daily News said that despite all the harsh tone and sentiment, Jeff Lurie expressed confidence in Andy Reid, albeit in a limited time frame.   Despite the defense’s inability to stop many people, Paul Domowitch of the Daily News says that Andy Reid put Juan Castillo in a pretty uncomfortable situation and so he shouldn’t be left out to dry by Reid whatever decision he makes on the defensive coordinator.  Dan Graziano of ESPN.com says that the Eagle owner used the word unacceptable so much that bringing back Reid made the word meaningless.  The Bears let go of GM Jerry Angelo and Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune writes that it was thanks to an abysmal history of draft selecting that led to the former scout’s dismissal from the top job in all of Chi-town football land.  Dan Pompei of the Tribune writes that forcing Lovie Smith on the new GM is a recipe for disaster.  Sean Jensen of the Chicago Sun Times writes that it was not enough talent as say a Green Bay or a Detroit that ultimately led to the dismissal of Jerry Angelo.  Jon Greenberg of ESPNChicago.com says that the Bears made the right moves and threw out some names since the Bears are in the solution business.  Peter King of SI.com weighs in on all topics including how the dominoes may fall once the dust settles.  

Is that enough for you?  A day after the Rams fired Bill Devaney and Steve Spagnuolo and Raheem Morris was sent packing in Tampa, a few more jobs opened up in NFL offices and a few quite surprisingly stayed shut.  I want to focus on them specifically so let’s run them down one by one:

Chargers:  The biggest surprise of the day was that Norv Turner will wake up this morning as the head coach of the San Diego Chargers.  If you hear talent evaluators and scouts talk about the job that AJ Smith has done in building the Chargers from perennial doormats to one of the elite teams, you’d think this team won a few championships.  Yet that’s the chatter among folks in the know:  the talent is there to win it all.  And that would lead one to believe that its the coach’s fault.  Right?  Wrong.  Apparently Norv has earned ONE FINAL shot at winning a new contract and it doesn’t necessarily mean winning a championship.  The Chargers are a very good team and over the final month showed that by playing well.  The regular season finale showed everything you needed to about the Chargers: their offense was clicking and yet the Raiders still had a chance in the end to win it.  The biggest problem the Chargers have is their head coach.  I’ve always felt that Norv Turner running an offense and Norv running a team are two totally different people and one easily out paces the other.  Some guys just can’t do the head coaching thing and it doesn’t take anything away from the offensive genius that Norv has, I’m just saying that perhaps the man would be better served wearing just that one hat than say the coach’s hat too.

Eagles: As surprising as the Chargers retention of Smith and Norv was, I wasn’t surprised by Andy Reid being given one more chance.  The shortened training season and programs limited the ability of Juan Castillo to install his defense and for Jim Washburn to install his wide 9 scheme.  But look at the raw numbers and the final 6 weeks and a different Eagles team started to emerge.  A team more confident and a team capable of scoring and playing with anyone.  Yes, the competition wasn’t all that but a team sometimes just needs to build confidence and say the Giants lost to the Jets and then the Cowboys beat the Giants in week 17, the Eagles would be hosting a playoff game.  Yes, as awful as that team played throughout the first 2 months of the season the Eagles still had a glimmer of hope heading into the final two weeks.  But there was just too much “unacceptable”-ness that couldn’t be ignored.  Reid’s decision to make Castillo, a former offensive line coach into a defensive coordinator was a dubious one.  The organization built a championship caliber defense to go with its high octane offense but I kept telling people that the offensive line was going to be a problem and it led to Vick getting injured and spending a ton of time on the side line.  The Eagles were plagued by mental errors and that falls on the coach’s lap.  Most of his decisions back fired on him during this season where all the expectations were that he not only make it to the playoffs but have a deep run.  None of that materialized.  Even in a very mediocre year for the NFC East, the Eagles with all that talent couldn’t win the division which is an upset in it of itself.  The next order of business will be to figure out what to do with Juan.  Hist last few games have been impressive and perhaps giving him a full offseason to help his players understand the scheme and the coverages may be of use.  BUT, Steve Spagnuolo, the former Eagles defensive coach is out there and there’s a rumbling among Eagle fans to retain him as the defensive coordinator a post he wanted a few years ago but was apparently held back by Reid which led to some tense times in Eagle land and eventually led to his emergence in New York as a Giant and a Super Bowl trophy.  The Eagles have plenty of tough decisions to make but make no mistake, the real unacceptable part will be this time next year if the Eagles are again left out of the dance, and Reid is looking for a lifeline: do NOT expect it from Jeff Lurie.

Bears: I agree with Dan Pompei- its tough to assume that the new GM and Lovie Smith will get along but there’s no denying that had Matt Forte and Jay Cutler NOT gone down with injuries the Bears would’ve been in the thick of things.  They were 7-3 and then Cutler and Forte went down.  I see them winning at minimum two of the games they lost.  They definitely beat the Broncos and they definitely beat the Chiefs.  That’s a 10-6 season and a wild card berth.  There were certainly holes and as Peter King pointed at the offensive line as a mystery that Jerry Angelo could never solve.  His draft record was poor and aside from Matt Forte, he didn’t draft a game changing star since trading for Jay Cutler.  But the biggest black mark was that Sam Hurd signing.  I don’t agree with it but Hurd’s arrest and charges and the fact that Angelo was accused of not doing a thorough background check may have been his undoing.  Bringing too much negative publicity may have been the final straw and there are several personnel moves that make you scratch your head.  That coupled with the fact that the Lions and Packers are teams that have been built from within and have the ability to have sustained excellence the Bears HAD to make a move to get on the boat of doing the same and bringing in a person who can draft well and help to build the core of the Bears from within.  That I feel was the biggest dilemma for the Bears who, like the Colts have masked a lot of their problems through scheme (Mike Martz also got the door) and great QB play.  The Bears had a decent team and aside from those two injuries to their most prominent offensive pieces, the Bears had very little shot of having a run with Caleb Hanie.  Lovie’s refusal to sit Hanie though was kind of odd and could’ve been the catalyst for his own firing.  Donovan McNabb may have helped the Bears a bit though even he would’ve been a long shot to cure the Bears considering their offensive line was just NOT any good.

Then there’s the decision that will REALLY make this offseason interesting.  The Indianapolis Colts fired Bill and Chris Polian Monday and owner Jim Irsay is setting the tone for a rebuilding year.  If that’s the case the Indianapolis Star’s Bob Kravitz says that means Andrew Luck will be the Colts QB in 2012 and Peyton Manning will be elsewhere.  Alex Marvez of FoxSports says that the best case scenario for the Colts would be that Peyton Manning’s neck isn’t healthy and it makes it easy for the organization to cut ties with the future hall of famer.  If not, there’s a major decision in the hands of a new GM.  Judy Batista of the New York Times says that the change was more of a cultural change as the Polians seemed to be outshining even the head coach Jim Caldwell who was spared the axing.  The decision on Caldwell will rest with the new GM.  

The Peyton Manning decision will be the most interesting personnel decision made by any one team that I can remember.  Imagine a QB with two or three more years of elite level at the quarterback position hitting the open market for teams to take.  Let’s take a look at the 12 teams that made the playoffs this year.  Out of the 12, 6 of them could use an upgrade immediately.  Imagine the Ravens with Peyton at the helm.  Imagine the 49ers with Peyton under center.  The Broncos may have Tebow magic but Peyton Manning could deliver them victories.  The Texans with Manning passing to Andre Johnson?  That’s Super Bowl worthy.  Then you open him up to owners like Daniel Snyder who has already said he would hand Peyton a blank check and let’s be real, he would and give him anything he wants.

But what about his legacy as a Colt?  In my estimation it wouldn’t suffer.  Look, this is a part of the business of football.  Teams are better off running superstars out of town a year early than a year late because of the propensity of injury in this sport.  The QB position especially is difficult.  Unfortunately the Colts won’t even be able to take advantage of having Peyton in the line up.  The Colts have until March 1st to make a decision on Peyton.  That’s the day that he’s owed a huge roster bonus upwards of $20 million.  His salary cap number will be a ridiculous $28 million which would be at the very least 1/6th of the teams’ cap number making it impossible to make additional roster changes.  The decision with the head is to finally cut Peyton Manning though it sounds harsh.  Its the right move for the organization that needs to look to its future and by firing the Polians they did just that.  We dont know what the Polians would’ve done had they been in charge of making that decision but Jim Irsay paved the way for a change.  Its something that had to be done.

Let’s not think that by any measure this is an easy decision.  Yes, Peyton’s neck surgeries the last few years are a troubling trend.  Yes, he’s getting older.  But his absence showed you how absolutely top heavy this team is in terms of production and play.  Without Peyton they are a doormat, a 2-14 disaster.  Its a result of bad drafting that has left this team woefully thin at several positions.  The Colts need to move forward and regardless of where you are as a fan, the right move is to release Peyton Manning so the Colts can build this team up the right way and give Andrew Luck a chance in the coming years to lead a good team.  If he’s as advertised if you build a solid offensive line, and get some more weapons along side Pierre Garcon (Reggie Wayne is most likely leaving and hopefully Austin Collie stops being concussed) the Colts can rebuild this team back in a division with the Texans who always have one reason or another why they can’t run away with the division.  Then there’s the Jags who are in rebuilding mode and are years away without a franchise QB at all.  Then there’s the Titans who are the second or third best team in the division depending solely on Indy’s play.  Again, this decision WILL NOT be easy but its necessary that the Colts look to the future and NOT hold on to the past.

Meanwhile the local football team in the playoffs, the Giants are looking at their battle tested schedule and wondering if they could take the 49ers and the Packers to the brink, why can’t they make a run?  Ralph Vacchiano of the Daily News gets the players pulse.  Tom Rock of Newsday says that Antrell Rolle after giving props to Tom Coughlin continued the respect train and it stopped at the doorstep of fellow safety Deon Grant who sat him down and got him to be himself.  Osi Umeniyora played Sunday but suffered a setback on the high ankle sprain.  While he’s expected to miss some practice time do not expect him to miss the first playoff game in Metlife Stadium.  Mike Vaccaro says that the Giants can turn the volume up and bring some life to Metlife Stadium.  Paul Schwartz of the New York Post says that Giant fans shouldn’t compare any run the Giants may have with the one in 2007.  

Its interesting that Mike Vaccaro brings that up because the Giants in 2007 relied on a road reliable team to cruise into the Super Bowl.  The Giants rallying cry was road warriors and its been over 10 years since the Giants had a home playoff win so the Giants are overdue.  Its also interesting that the similarities between eerie events happening that year and the events of this year.  The Giants would love this team to author a similar ending and surely there is no super duper team that has no weaknesses that it would be the height of improbability that the Giants walk into their home this season and win BUT the Giants have a few glaring differences.  That team’s offensive line and running game were stout, both of which are concerns heading into the playoffs.

The Giants would have a similar up hill climb with the Saints being a very difficult task since the Giants would likely have to face them in the SuperDome where they are 8-0 this season and they are 10-0 in domes overall.  The Giants however have a passing attack which features Victor Cruz.  My biggest key going into the Falcon game will be how Nicks handles it.  Nicks is the unquestioned number one regardless of the feel good story that Cruz is.  Nicks is the move the chains/Plaxico guy who can make big catches and having both of them going at the same time would do wonders for this team and afford HUGE holes for the offensive line to work with.

The Giants need the defensive line to play lights out over the next month in order to have any chance to move forward.  If they don’t play well the secondary will get lit up.  Not a maybe, it WILL get lit up.  The pressure is on the defensive line to cause pressure and force mistakes.  The Giants will need all the help they can get.

Tyler Kepner of the New York Times believes that the Yankees are saving their cash to spend big next winter when guys like Matt Cain and Cole Hamels may wind up as free agents.  

The name to keep in mind is Matt Cain.  Cole Hamels will be retained by the Phillies barring some major malfunction on the organization’s thinking.  The Phillies have a ton of money tied up in Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay (two worthwile contracts even at THAT price), but not retaining your home grown under 30 ace like pitcher would be the height of stupidity and the antithesis of how the Phillies have operated under Ruben Amaro Jr.  Cain however remains with the Giants, a team who will have to pay HUGE bucks to Tim Lincecum and will try to tie up Buster Posey (if they are smart) and I dont know where they are willing to go payroll wise but they would have to crack the $100 million barrier to afford both and I dont know that the Giants want to sustain that kind of payroll for multiple seasons which will eventually be what they have to do in order to keep the nucleus together.  Look, the Yankees were smart NOT to invite CJ Wilson to their facility for a try out.  Its clear the Yankees do NOT want to be used to drive up his price EVEN if it benefits them by making a fellow contender spend more but the Yankees are only going to gain an ace by trade.  My guess is that the Yankees somehow pry Felix Hernandez loose from the Mariners UNLESS Prince Fielder decides to sign in Seattle.  Seattle CAN operate as a big market club but are being built through the minor leagues by Jeff Zdiruneck.

My guess is that the Nationals sign Prince Fielder.  The Mariners trade Felix to the Yankees  for multiple pieces (start with Jesus Montero AND Dellin Betances and perhaps Gaby Sanchez) which IS the right move for both teams and the Yankees STILL don’t win a world series.  Look, I’m no Mayan but I’d be lying if I told you I thought the Yankees can expect to find another Freddy Garcia AND Bartolo Colon to offset their lack of pitching depth.  You know what you got in CC Sabathia (workhorse ace) and in AJ Burnett (5.00 ERA) and at some point in time the Yankees can expect Mariano to drop off in production though I would NEVER bet against the greatest closer in the history of the position.  I expect a slightly down year from Curtis Granderson.  I expect Robinson Cano to have an MVP year next year.  I expect the slow regression of the captain and Alex Rodriguez to continue and for Manny Banuelos to have a decent rookie campaign.  I even predict he makes the team from the outset of the season.

Finally, before quitting the blog for the day, Lynn Zinser of the New York Times talks about the repercussions for Santonio Holmes quitting on his team.  Now that Rex Ryan has been shut up for good, everyone else is doing the talking and its not complementary.  Mike Lupica of the Daily News calls Rex and the Jets the joke.  Brian Costello of the Post says that Mark Sanchez during an interview with 1050 ESPN took full responsibility for trying to make things right with Santonio Holmes.  Roderick Boone of Newsday said that Rex vowed to spend more time with the offense.  

Lynn hit the nail right on the head.  Often times when players are making certain decisions during the heat of the battle they rarely think about its consequences.  They give in to their emotions and let them  take control.  Holmes wanted the football.  He didn’t get it.  He pouted.  But the setting for that was the problem.  The season was on the line and as it turns out, the Jets COULD HAVE made the playoffs had Holmes kept his head in the game and made plays to help the Jets win the game.  BUT, what can’t be ignored is that Holmes criticisms have some merit.  The offense has stunk for some time now but at least over the last two years when the Jets went on extended runs they had some sort of identity:  they were a run-oriented offense.  They went away from that slowly with Holmes’ acquisition and Plax this year but to do that in addition to cutting several veterans who would’ve provided leadership in the locker room was a recipe for disaster.  Add that to the fact that the training camps were cut short by the lockout and the team had very little time to get acclimated to the new system the Jets were setting themselves up.  By the time they tried to revert back it was too late.  They had squandered too many games and another year out of a great defense.  The Jets face a tough question but my choice would be to keep Santonio.  The Jets need to bring in a QB to really challenge Sanchez.  You want to see your franchise guy man up and win a QB competition straight up which is why throwing money at Matt Flynn is a good idea.  Of course if Peyton Manning comes into play you could make a run but with the Jets current cap situation he would have to take a lesser deal to come to the Jets though he may want to do that with how close the Jets are and the chance at playing Tom Brady twice a year.  But who knows, right now Mark Sanchez has to do what he can to reclaim that locker room because he’s NOT a leader that can voice his opinions.  Santonio had NO RESPECT for him and thus missed meetings that he tried to set up.  That kind of insubordination deserves a huge presence by Rex who needs to give up this idea and belief that he can coach anybody and focus on putting together a good team not necessarily the most talented one.

The Jets were once a team and I think most players would love to play for a coach like Rex Ryan who wears his emotions on his sleeve but Rex needs to take a step back and assess exactly what went wrong.  My opinion?  Get rid of Schotty if you are going in a different direction at the QB.  IF you get Peyton ax Schotty and get a decent offensive coordinator to take his place.  I would pray that Schottenheimer gets the Jaguars job which is apparently open.  The fact is, the Jets need help in the locker room which wasn’t the case until this year.  Either way, they want their players to quit the baby act and not quit on themselves.

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Jets- Bears: Week 16 (38-34 loss)

– The Jets entered the game with a chance to control their destiny.  Win and they were in.  Instead, by the end of the day, they got into a shoot out with the Bears and lost but still wound up getting in, thanks to the Washington Redskins beating the Jacksonville Jaguars in OT.

– Yet another classic Rex playoff postgame press conference.  His reaction to getting in was priceless and exactly what any coach outside of Bill Belichiek would’ve said had he found out in mid press conference.  Here’s what endears Rex to Jet fans- he’s “real”.  Most head coaches would’ve had some prepared statement for the situation but Rex is an in-the-moment type of guy and so he has no script.

Which naturally brings us to the whole youtube controversy which annoys me to no end.  The fact that we’re even discussing this (i’m not saying that this is a silly-free space, but still) is beyond me.  This is where being a wise-cracking, outspoken head coach comes back to bite you.  In today’s twitter/social networking world this is news.  Its sad.  I asked on Facebook this week and I still believe this by the way:

“Umm, is it just me..or is the Rex Ryan foot fetish video proof that romance isn’t dead”

I still stand by that.  What’s crazy about a guy still being crazy in love with his wife and why is it a big deal?  Its one of those videos where I expected to see a lot worse than what I actually saw.  Sorry, it wasn’t that serious.

Let’s get to the notes on the actual game:

Let’s talk about turnovers and bad decisions:

A. Warning: this is NOT a fumble so before you go and make ill-comments I’ll save you, but still it set in your mind that the ball was going to be very tough to hold on to for the rest of the game and turnovers might turn into an issue.

8:35 left in the 1st quarter and LDT fumbles on a hand off after gaining about 2 yards.  That’s 3 plays into their offensive set for the Jets.  THREE!  But the Jets recovered so no harm no foul.

Two plays later….

6:47 left in the 1st quarter- Santonio Holmes takes it on an end around fumbles the football and Jim Nantz, of CBS fame, makes an interesting note: Santonio Holmes hates wearing sleeves because he feels it makes him fumble and after it caused him a touchdown in Ohio State he swore to never wear them again.  He rubs oil on his arm to warm his hands up but of course he broke his promise Sunday and it cost him a fumble which I’m sure he’s kicking himself on. Four plays later, Matt Forte takes it to the house and scores. 7 points off turnover.

B. Opening drive of the second half and the Jets attempt a fake punt on 4th and 3 and the Bears sniffed that out immediately.  How do I know this? Because you see multiple arms point out Sanchez in the formation and the Bears instinctively play the pass and bat down the Sanchez pass.  Why on earth would you call the fake punt this early?  There was no need to do so.  You had the momentum as a team after outscoring the Bears 24-7 during the second quarter and ending the first half with a field goal.  Naturally, the very next play Jay Cutler throws to Johnny Knox for a 40 yard td pass.  That’s 7 points off this bad decision.

c.  After playing keep away from Devin Hester for the first half, the very first punt of the second half the Jets attempt Devin Hester actually gets a chance to return it and return it he does, back to the Jet 37 for a 38 yard return and that sets up two plays later, a Jay Cutler TD pass to, you guessed it, Devin Hester. Thats 7 more points off the bad play. Also, kicking to Devin Hester should officially be called a turnover.

 

-Weather was certainly a factor and sure to be one.  Two weeks after being decimated by the Patriots in worse weather, the Bears and Jets saw just about all four seasons in one game.  Snow, sun, wind, low temperatures.  But the weather affects the game this way: when Matt Forte goes in slapped into the end zone.  Terrible tackling by the Jets, all day and I suppose most want to blame it on the weather but that’s what separates the good teams from the not so good ones.  The Jets did a terrible job all day of tackling and some players on certain plays seemed to play matador tackling.

– IF you choose to judge Mark Sanchez by his last throw (which happened to be his lone INT of the day) then so be it.  There are those who believe you’re ONLY as good as your last throw.  Well, I’m not going to put this loss on Sanchez’s shoulders.  The Jets defense gave up 38 points.  The Jets offense fumbled 3 times which was recovered by the Bears once.  Sunday’s game was one of Sanchez’s best.  Certain throws he made were very revealing.  Here’s a few that I thought stood out, not just in terms of degree of difficulty but situation.

(These aren’t in any order of importance):

1. Sandwiched in between a terrible first possession was a critical throw to Dustin Keller to convert on a first down.  3rd and 7 and the Jets needing to get the crowd a little quiet got a beautiful but dangerous throw.  Why is this throw in the 1st quarter an important throw?  When talent evaluators try to forecast quarterbacks they like to see them make throws like the one he made: zipped in between two defenders.  The kind of throw that if its any softer, its knocked down or worse intercepted.  The kind of throw that Chad Pennington could never make.  Its the reason that talent evaluators swear by Jay Cutler while the average fan may think he’s nothing more than average, run of the mill.  Its why Jeff George was still an NFL QB into his late 30’s.  You can’t teach height and you can’t teach arm strength.  Sanchize threw a pass that proved he had an arm.

2. 3rd quarter 10:15 left-  Jets have lost the lead and Chicago is up 31-24.  Sanchez on a 1st down threads the needle in between 4 Bears defenders and over Brian Urlacher’s outstretched arm to get it to Braylon Edwards right in his stomach in stride.  He had Dustin Keller on the inside but instead went over the top and made such a difficult throw look easy and did it with beauty.

3. Two plays later with 8:45 left in the 3rd quarter- I said it last week and I went back and checked the tape- Mark Sanchez has got to have one of the very best play action/faking the hand off plays in all of football because he sells it so well.  The key to any good play action is to mimic your movements as if you were running a running play.  Most times quarterbacks give out “tells” in the way they grip the football or even the way they move or stretch their hand trying to hand the football off.  I watched 5 or 6 plays prior to his play action and saw absolutely nothing that would tell me he was giving off a tell, and that kind of trickery is so difficult to stop.

Sanchez fakes the hand off to the left as the offensive line is pulling the defense that way and Sanchez rolls out right where there’s a stretch of land and with how fast he is, the defense covering receivers down field suddenly must respect his ability to scramble and thus they got sucked in leaving Santonio Holmes sitting wide open in the end zone.  The combination of these skills gives Mark Sanchez SUCH an advantage.  And by open I mean Holmes was 10 yards away from any defender.

 

– Here’s the thing about the Jets offense that I don’t like: they seem to look away from Dustin Keller way too much.  Sometimes I can’t seem to find him during an offensive stretch, yet he’s a match up nightmare for linebackers and corners.  He makes plays all the time and yet he seems to be lost for stretches of a game.  I went back and looked at the tape and I never saw Keller double covered or the defense shading him with a safety over the top.  He’s the safety valve.  He has the ability to get you first downs all the time.

Which brings me to my point on Mark Sanchez.  He’s a good quarterback, don’t get me wrong, but the Jets personnel department may have some explaining to do.  Here’s my take on Sanchize and its unbiased:

The Jets made a decision during the season last year prior to getting Braylon Edwards that their defense was ready to win and they had a young QB who could learn quicker with better talent surrounding him and that strategy makes sense.  They got Braylon Edwards on the cheap after he made it known he wanted out of there and also getting into a spat with Cleveland’s former first son Lebron James’ entourage.  But then the postseason happened and the mindset became: let’s load up on receivers and speed up his progression as a second year QB.  Meanwhile, the Jets had won because of their run game and their defense and Mark Sanchez being a game manager.  Not because he was this excellent passer.  Want to see?  Sure you do:

Opponent           Comp/Att         YDS        TD        INT

Bengals                   12/15                     182            1              0

Chargers                 12/23                    100            1              1

Colts                         17/30                   257             2             1

Totals           42/ 68 (61.8%)       539           4             2

 

For arguments sake I also put in Tom Brady’s and Peyton Manning’s first 3 playoff games as well:

Opponent           Comp/Att         YDS        TD        INT

Titans (1999)            19/42                 227           0              0- LOSS

Dolphins (2000)      17/32                 194           1               0- LOSS

Jets (2002)                14/31                 137           0               2- LOSS (41-0- but something tells me Jet fans remember this)

TOTALS:       50/105 (47.6%)     558         1               2

As for Brady:

Raiders (2001)          32/52               312           0               1- WIN

Steelers (2001)         12/18                 115           0               0- WIN

Rams (2001)             16/27                145           1                0- WIN (Super Bowl)

Totals:            60/97 (61.8%)      572         1               1
Both Brady and Manning are considered the elite of QB’s whenever the topic is brought up.  Look at these stats and just understand one thing: Brady was 3-0 and Manning 0-3, while Sanchez falls right in the middle with 2-1 in his first three games.  But both of their teams asked Brady and Manning to direct their offense, especially Manning who had 37 more passing attempts than Sanchize and Brady who had 29 more (although you can make the case that those numbers are that high because of the intriguing game planning by Belichiek to go pass heavy during the now infamous Tuck Rule game where they had a couple of inches of snow laying on the field.).  The Pats and the Colts both asked their QB to do a lot more than the Jets asked Sanchez to do.

That of course became the cue for the Jets to increase his weapon load and add Santonio Holmes during the offseason, another buy low pick up by the Jets front office.  I’m not saying Sanchez isn’t capable of becoming the amazing passer that the Jets front office sees in him, but look at the win/loss record of Peyton Manning who was asked to carry the offense by passing and look at Tom Brady’s win loss record when he was asked to just manage the game.  Brady 3-0, Manning 0-3.  Its not a very difficult formula.  The Jets have a successful formula that helped them: run the football, and stay with the run even being stubborn.  Is it any coincedence that their loss in the playoffs was when Sanchez was asked to do more on the passing end?

When they got Edwards and Holmes they stacked up playmakers on offense without any thought to their roles.  Were they both going to stretch the field?  Were they both going to be possession receivers?  Apparently its the latter.  They both run the same slant route which has become their go-to play.  Which brings me to Brian Schottenheimer’s game calling which has been borderline abysmal throughout the season.  He’s had his moments but never a full game where you sat back and said that the game plan was the reason the Jets won.  The game plan should be simple: run the football.  Play the time of possession game with your opponent.  Take a few shots down the field.  Always have Sanchez throw to the underneath receivers and them be his first option.  Dink and dunk and every 5th or 6th pass when you sense a pass rush, option to a different screen.  Sound familiar?  It should, its the Patriots game plan.  Sanchize DOES have the tools to be an excellent game manager and has the arm to make the tough throws.  That’s going to be necessary come playoff time.  When the weather gets bad, the Jets need Sanchez to manage the game and Sanchez needs the Jets to call on the running game for 30-40 carries a game.

– Big strategy for the Jets was simple: play keep away from Devin Hester on the special teams department.  2 punts and 2 kickoffs and they did just that.  Kept it away from perhaps the best returner in NFL history.

2nd half different story: 1st punt- goes to Devin Hester and he takes it for 38 yards back to the Jets 37.  Two plays later, TD pass by Jay Cutler to Devin Hester.  Kick off to Devin Hester from the 11 and that’s a 40 yard return meaning the Bears once again starts off in Jets territory.

So here were the scoring runs for the day:

10-0 for the Bears, followed by 24-7 for the Jets (Jets up 24-17), then 14-0 for the Bears, (31-24 for the Bears) then the Bears and Jets scoring TD’s and a FG for the Jets (38-34 Bears).  That folks is a back and forth game.  The kind of rollercoaster game that most didn’t expect to see.  But again, the weather creates a variable that many don’t expect.

– Key drive of the game only gave the Jets 3 points but its a point I wanted to make with the Jets.  Here is where Mark Sanchez is the strongest and where the Jets are at their strongest.  Let’s consider for a second here:  The Jets have weapons on offense.  They have a very good running game and a very good offensive line with receivers who are playing very well.  The Bears in the 3rd quarter scored 3 touchdowns on possessions of 1, 3, and 5 plays.  They went 40,32, and 49 yards on three possessions thanks to a turnover on downs and then two excellent returns by All-World super freak Devin Hester.  So what do the Jets do?  They slowed the game down.

they start at the 32.  There is 6:02 left in the third quarter.  The sequence of plays was

Pass for 12 to Braylon Edwards on a slant (1st down),

Run for 2 by LDT

Pass for 7 to LDT

Run for 2 by Tony Richardson (1st down)

Run for 4 by LDT

Pass for 7 to Dustin Keller (1st down)

Run for 8 by LDT

Run for 4 by LDT (1st down)

Incompletion to Holmes

Run for 4 by LDT (end of 3rd quarter)

Start of 4th quarter

Incomplete to Holmes.

Folk hits a 34 yard field goal. –  Thats 5 passing plays, 6 running plays for 51 yards.

Why is this the drive of the game?  Because the Bears were playing a pace that the Jets couldn’t keep up and the Jets wisely slowed the game down and played time of possession.  Game is now slowed.  Neither team scored in the 4th quarter but that’s more due to the fact that the Bears were milking the clock and trying to run the football.  Also, the Jet defense was being destroyed by the Bears passing game and they needed this long rest to get their feet back under them.  If you’re wondering what their next drive was?  12 plays resulting only in a punt but again playing the time of possession game.

The key to the game?  Matt Forte.  The guy was a beast.  4th quarter with the Jets needing a stop, he comes up with a 32 yard gain.  The Bears didn’t score on the drive but Matt Forte’s final tally for the day: 19 carries 113 yards 1 TD, and 4 catches for 56 yards which set up another Bears TD.  This was the first 100 yard individual rusher that the Jets defense has had since the Rex Ryan era began.

– I’m not going to kill the Jets for punting on 4th down with 5:46 to go.  They had not converted on one 4th down, albeit it was a fake.  But here’s what I don’t get: how do you punt it to Devin Hester even with the confidence that Steve Weatherford will down them deep in their territory?  It was certainly a decision that had they taken more time to discuss might have gone the other way and who knows?  The Jets were killing the Bears on that drive.  That was two consecutive long drives that the Bears had been taken on by the Jets and perhaps they were a bit winded and getting them at their low might have been beneficial.  The Jets DID pin them back and they DID get them on a 3 and out and they got the ball back with 4:32 left which is all you can ask for.  The Jets just didn’t take advantage on the next drive.  3 and out which killed them. I can however kill the Jets defense for not being prepared for the run.  Forte got a critical first down and forced the Jets to use their timeouts.

–  The final Sanchez pass was a mixed bag.  Just a poor throw, not a bad decision.  It was a line drive throw that didn’t have enough arc.  It had to be dropped over Holmes head and if it had, it would’ve gone to the house.  That would’ve been a touchdown but Sanchez threw a ball that was low enough in trajectory that allowed the safety to come underneath and pick it off.  Good idea, poor execution.  Ball game.

 

What does this  mean for the Jets? I liked some of the things that they were able to do and some of their decisions were a lot better than prior weeks where they made key mental errors that could’ve cost them and again, this is the knock on the Jets.  In games that come down to the wire, if they can’t make good decisions, they will be in a world of trouble and they need their entire coaching staff to go to time management school and go back to basics.  They were able to get away with some mistakes but again, bad decisions and turnovers turned into 21 Chicago points and those are the kind of things that the Jets need to stay away from.  Its not just the turnovers but the bad decisions.  Hopefully the Jets will make those corrections as they head into the playoffs for the second consecutive year.

 

Lets go Jets!

 

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