I woke up this morning to an interesting perspective from a very celebrated New York sports columnist.  Mike Lupica of the Daily News and ESPN’s Sports Reporters and ESPN Radio fame made the case that perhaps Jeremy Lin would be better off playing in Houston.  Lin has been a popular subject this week, as he usually is whenever Knicks basketball is being discussed it seems  But the people I’ve talked to have felt strongly about two points of this whole Lin phenomenon:

1. No question the Knicks will/have to match the offer sheet from the Rockets which is a reported 4 year $29 million deal, details of which you can find in this USA TODAY report.

2. No one has any idea what Jeremy Lin will be.

The second part is perhaps the most troubling aspect of this.  Forget cap flexibility in 2015- that will be pretty much fiction, but you are banking on the fact that Lin will turn into one of the top flight point guards in the NBA.  At 23 years old, Lin is still young and what’s more encouraging is that he yearns to be better.  Of course it won’t really matter, according to Lupica, because he will be installed in a system that basically asks him to do one of two things: 1. pass the ball to Melo or 2. pass the ball to Melo.  The ISO offense that Woodson has his name super glued to is the real source of fear for prognosticators hoping to get a read on this whole Linsanity.

If the system isn’t modified to allow Lin to grow one has to wonder whether its even worth keeping Jeremy Lin at the cap number he would be at starting year three of the deal.  But here’s the thing that nobody talks about.  At $5 million for the first two years of the deal, Lin is MORE than capable of living up to the terms of that deal.  His third year may be squeamish especially if he doesn’t improve, but at close to $10 million that would be the worst part of the deal.  The fourth year is a team option according to sources which means this is a 3 year contract worth $20 million which when you consider the financials of the deal James Dolan will sign off on any day of the week.

Recently, Mickey Arison told news outlets that the Miami Heat, who employ the single most talked about franchise in League history and the single most discussed and analyzed player in NBA history Lebron James, lost money during their championship season.  Every NBA owner is collectively shaking their head.  Now, we haven’t gotten all the information back yet and perhaps Arison is just one of those guys still crying about the CBA which he was opposed to when it was agreed upon but it bears remembering that these men who own these franchises will ultimately base many of their decisions on the return they get on their major investment.

So one has to wonder if a team that just won the NBA Finals, who has plenty of sell outs, still can’t make money- that newer financial models are on their way; ones that will surely include trying to obtain a superstar.  Remember, the CBA was constructed with elements to make it more appeasing financially to stay with the team that drafted you- thus rewarding you for the kind of loyalty that Dwight Howard proudly boasted about while signing a one year deal.

Which brings us back to Jeremy Lin- why on earth would Dolan ever let go of that?  My opinion of what Jeremy Lin is as a basketball player is irrelevant in this decision making process and while Mike Lupica seems to be speaking on behalf of Lin’s best interest, let’s not forget that the financials of this are what’s driving this decision forward.  Lin’s two month run was one of the most lucrative in MSG’s history and even drove up Cablevision’s stock price.  Irrespective of what you believe, Dolan need only care what drives up his company’s price and nothing more.  He doesn’t have to bother himself with our basketball expertise that tells us all that despite all the good that Lin did, he did so in such a small amount of time and guaranteeing him that kind of money that can hamstring the Knicks for years is a huge risk regardless of the the windfall financially that may come as a result of Linsanity continuing to take over MSG and NY.

Here’s what I know: the move for Jason Kidd was huge.  Like I wrote earlier in the week, Kidd’s importance can’t be stated highly enough.  Kidd’s signing can be spun as a move for competitive reasons by Knicks brass but the move is one more for the future of the Knicks franchise.  IF Lin is what the Knicks brass think/hope he is, then Kidd’s presence during practices, in game coaching and every other kind of mentoring will pay his $3 million salary.  This is especially important when considering that if the Knicks had declined the option to match the Rockets offer sheet and only signed Kidd for a short term contract, the Knicks may have been able to try and make a very faint hearted attempt at Chris Paul who has the chance to become a free agent next year and be on the market and has expressed a desire to form his own big three in New York.

That wouldn’t be practical or prudent.  They would only be fooling the Knicks fan base who have longed for a winner and may have one here that can compete with the best of the best.  Of course no one knows if that is true and there will surely be backlash if a report ever comes out that Paul’s desire was to come to NY but because of cap destroying moves they couldn’t afford to enter the race.  But the fact is, the Knicks lucked out in Lin.  No one had any idea THIS would take place.  We still don’t know if absent Mike D’Antoni’s point guard centric offensive system whether Lin can be successful or not.  This is what we do know: that its worth finding out over doing the same thing the Knicks have done, and mostly unsuccessfully, signing known commodities to big time deals while not discovering their own talent.  This may have been a sign from God that perhaps the Knicks need to go that route.  To discover the potential of a blessing like Lin and see how far he can take them.

That’s still not discounting Jim Dolan’s very expensive taste that may get in the way of any kind of plan that tries to build a team.   Being thoughtful about Lin’s future in the game is nice but in the end it makes no sense Mr. Lupica.

FIRST HALF STANDINGS

At the end of the first half the Yankees won 3 out of 4 in Boston and the Mets lost 2 out of 3 against the suddenly hot Cubs.  Despite my severe bias in these discussions I’d have to say that what the Mets are having the more impressive first half.  Sustainable?  We don’t know.  The Mets have the more difficult decision making coming as the July trade deadline approaches.  What to do about the league’s worst bullpen?  They seemingly can’t hold any lead and almost always puts a run or two on the board.  Now, obviously the need would be to go out on the trade market and find a major reliever or two.  But it seems according to Joel Sherman of the NY POST that the Mets are looking at catcher help.

I’m among those who think this would be a terrible idea.  One of the endearing qualities of this Mets club is that they are loose and together.  They play for one another and for their coach and despite all their shortcomings (and there are others aside from the bullpen), the Mets have something special going with this young core of players.  There have been a number of games where a completely home grown line up has taken the field and while that may not make fans stand up and take note, its a very special tip of the cap to the decision makers in this team, both here and from the past who have built up a nice decent core of players who can take the field and make a difference.  The second half is a complete mystery and yes, the next four series, three with NL EAST divisional foes will ultimately make the decision either very easy or VERY DIFFICULT for Sandy Alderson and his staff.  Either the Mets lose a majority of games and the Mets don’t make a major move for a power right handed bat (wherever they can dig that up), or they just make a small move or two for a reliever.

We all know the reliever market is as volatile as they get in the game.  You try and string together a power bullpen, close your eyes and hope you hit on them.  Year after year bullpen makeovers happen.  You can either catch lightning in a bottle OR you can trade away an important chip for a guy who will ultimately be judged based on very limited moments where he can either win or lose you games.  And that will be how these moves are judged.  Its way too difficult.  That is why I hope the Mets don’t make a major move for a right handed power bat and I hope they continue their trend of promoting their young guys from Triple A.  Don’t break this thing up by adding more and more players from different organizations.  The Mets have a decent pipeline of talent coming up and trading some of those pieces away for what seems like an immediate fix would be problematic.  I don’t expect Alderson to trade Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler for Damaso Marte or a reliever it seems as though a B-Level prospect like Mat Den Dekker could be and even then I’d be wary of making a move because I don’t think the return (unless its a shut down reliever but I’ve been over this- reliever market is volatile) warrants giving up a prospect who can make a difference next season as a platoon player etc.

The Yankees meanwhile opened slowly and have resumed complete ownership of the AL EAST.  This weekend’s showcase was very revealing.  It was my first time watching extended Yankee baseball and one can hardly recognize the Red Sox.  Its like Bobby Valentine is trying to recreate those feisty Met teams of the late 90’s.  No star power, just young guys who are fighting to remain on a big league ball club.  That kind of desperation from big leaguers can allow Bobby Valentine to preach his gospel and be confident his players hear him.  But what happens when Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford all return?  What happens when Adrian Gonzalez is STILL hitting singles and doubles instead of doubles and home runs?  What happens when there is still ONLY David Ortiz hitting for this team?  Who by the way wants a new contract which I don’t think is absolutely ridiculous as some people make it out to be.  The Sox are a team to watch during the trade deadline.  The Yankees meanwhile may knock on the door of teams selling starters with Andy Pettite going down but they have made do because of their offense.  They continue to pour in runs at a remarkable pace while their starting pitching does JUST enough to keep them in games.  Again, the offense is what will keep them winning but it does make for interesting debate when the post season comes.  Can Phil Hughes continue his resurgence?  Can Ivan Nova continue to pitch effectively for a full season?  There’s evidence to suggest that can happen but we all know what Yankee seasons are measured by.  This is all just a subtle reminder about priorities.  The Bronx hopes to keep this core of players in it until October and let the dice fall where they may while the boys in Queens are gearing up for a major run next season and beyond as their young talent begins to rise up and play meaningful October baseball for a very long time. Sandy Alderson’s goal was to have a sustainable pipeline of talent flowing in and out of the majors.  They have not rushed any top prospects like they used to.  They have kept their mantra of developing young talent and grooming them for the big stage and with a manager like Terry Collins it looks like they are going in the right direction.  This second half should be interesting.

As for my first half awards:

AL MVP- Josh Hamilton- I am basing this on an unreal stretch in May where it looked like nobody on this planet could get him out and perhaps putting too much emphasis on his league leading 27 home runs, but we all know that he is a supreme talent who’s ability will take him very far.  Now, what his second half looks like will be interesting given the fact that he’s playing for a contract and perhaps theirs motivation there.  With not the kind of return by letting players of his ilk walk, the Rangers may entertain trade scenarios.  One that would make perfect sense is a Josh Hamilton for Cole Hamels trade.  Of course why you would break up Hamilton in that line up makes no sense but who cares.  My only point is that both teams look to be losing and it seems like Shane Victorino after this little act of insubordination is on his way out so getting the CF and then trading Victorino for prospects makes some kind of sense and the Phils may be more inclined to sign Hamilton to a long term contract more so than Hamels who’s price may be too exorbitant for the Phils to try and match with Los Angeles out there ready to spend money on a SoCal product who has similar interest in joining the revolution out in LA.   For the record I think, given his recent June, this award is Robinson Cano’s to lose.  His swing and finding his stroke means that he will make a nice little run in the second half notwithstanding injury.

NL MVP- Andrew McCutchen-  As much as I would like to put David Wright here, I think what the Pirates are doing is incredible and McCutchen has absolutely ZERO protection.  Granted their pitching is what’s kept them in the race thus far, the young CF does it all.  Plays defense at a valuable position and has done everything short of pitching to keep them in games and win them games.  He’s asked to do more in Pittsburgh than say Joey Votto in Cincinatti, and he plays a better centerfield than anyone in the game.  Ultimately, Votto’s numbers are so Sabre-friendly that I can’t see those voters NOT putting his name down in their ballot and ultimately win his second consecutive MVP.

AL ROY- Mike Trout.  There really is no discussion here needed.

NL ROY- Tyler Colvin- 10 home runs in 30 days?  Oooo wee.

AL CY Young- Jered Weaver- Another year where he has a 2 ERA and 10 wins before the All Star Break.  At some point this guy has to get the due he’s deserved.

NL CY Young- RA Dickey- At some point, if he continues on this pace, he could be the first Mets pitcher to have a 20 game season in almost two decades and have an ERA around 2 and have close to 300 strikeouts since a guy named Doc Gooden did it for them.