That’s it. All the talking is done. The Giants and 49ers will square off for the NFC Championship. Mike Lupica of the Daily News writes that this game is for the Giants opportunity to write another chapter in a long and storied history. Mike Vaccaro of the Post writes that regardless of the forecast, these Giants have shown a propensity for coming through in the harshest of conditions. Tom Rock of Newsday writes that if Eli Manning wants to really be elite? Then win one more championship and then we can mercifully put that to rest. Ian O’Connor of ESPN.com writes that in the midst of all the anxiety that a NFC Championship can bring, Tom Coughlin is cool as a cucumber, a lesson he learned on his last Super Bowl ride. Greg Bishop of the New York Times writes that these Niners remind us of their glory teams. Mark Purdy of the Conta Costra Times writes that the Niners are a hit show. Cam Inman of the CCT writes the Frank Gore story, a must read for any who appreciate a story about a player who has had a tough road to this particular moment. Jerry McDonald of the CCT writes about laid back Eli and why NOT being his brother is the best compliment ANYONE could give him. Eric Branch of the San Fran Chronicle writes that Alex Smith thinks there’s only one guy who’s had it worse than him: Eli Manning.
Well its finally time for the game and its now at the point where you can put all the festivities aside and get down to what’s important here and that’s this: the Giants and Niners are going to play A CLASSIC NFC Championship game. Its almost as certain as the reports of showers coming in. Why? I’ll give you a few reasons why:
1. The Weather- If this were the 07 team, I’d tell you that the advantage was clearly on the Giants side since that was an offensive line that could obliterate any run defense. Remember the game against the Ravens the season after the Super Bowl win and the Giants ran up over 250 yards on the ground? The Ravens were the number one rushing defense. THIS team is not built on the run like the Niners are. But the Niners aren’t really built on the run either. As they showed in their first game, if you dare Alex Smith to throw on first and second down like the Giants dared him to do Smith CAN make plays. Hitch routes and slant patterns can effectively stop a pass rush if need be. Both teams will need to air it out, but that game will be affected by reports of rain AND 20 MPH winds. The QB better able to make the plays will prevail. Both teams will have to make effective use of the running game and the team that can run up the middle without having to go outside into the edges will be the one who wins. Look for the biggest plays to come over the tackles, the team that can effectively run off tackle against the defensive ends will be victorious. Look for the Niners to put Justin Smith, their ALL-Pro tackle in the middle on first and second down and then their second team All-Pro defensive end Justin Smith (yes, same person. Yes, its the first time a player has made it on to the team in two different positions) on third down at the edge, JUST in case the Giants try and go off tackle on their now-infamous draw plays.
2. Pass rush vs. Pass Rush- The Giants are known for getting a pass rush from their front four, especially when the Giants get their NASCAR front. But the Niners have two Smiths that aren’t average Joe’s at their position. Justin and rookie Aldon, are two extreme motor guys who will continue to keep coming and will give it everything they’ve got. Justin is probably the best defensive player on the field with JPP coming in a close second, since he can play a multitude of positions and plays it well enough to earn ALL-PRO honors, it will be important for the Giants AND Niners to get the pass rush. I think the Niners have an excellent chance to get pressure up the middle against Eli thanks to Sopoaga, and Smith and the Giants will depend on C David Baas and their interior lineman to hold the fort down. Expect the Giants to go with Tony Ugoh on several downs in place of Jake Ballard who will come ONLY on passing downs to try and neutralize the rush coming from the Niners who will also rush Navarro Bowman AND Patrick Willis. On the Niners side, don’t expect Vernon Davis to have A HUGE game considering he will be used to block and chip on most downs so any catches that he will have will come as a result of it being Alex Smith’s last option or a blown coverage on the Giants part. Since Ted Ginn’s injury and Michael Crabtree relative ineffectiveness, the onus is on these two to play critical roles.
3. Offense of Giants vs. Defense of the Niners- The Giants have the superior offensive weaponry. There’s no denying that. But, the Niners have speed. Last week, Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman played a lot of man coverage against Jimmy Graham AND Darren Sproles, lining up speed vs. speed. Now, the Niners don’t have to commit those guys into coverage like that on single players. They can have one OR two of these guys back there making tackles and making plays or going on blitzes. This will be extremely beneficial to the Niners since this will be a comfort zone. Why does this effect the Giants? Because now, the Niners can use them to go against Victor Cruz in the slot. They will play bump and run coverage. They will use Willis or Bowman to try and muscle them within five yards and delay their routes. They will try to throw off their timing. Cruz’s strength is an undeniable weapon that i’ve seen him use to go and get those jump balls or go and make plays against corners who just can’t match up against him. They will try to delay the timing and HOPE that the jam will throw them off routes. Of course what makes Cruz and Nicks so tough to stop IS their physicality and they risk getting beat and those guys going deep which is why they will have safety help over the top on those guys which brings us to the match up that I think will decide the game: Carlos Rogers vs. Mario Manningham. This will be one on one ALL DAY in my opinion. They will try and match him up, and if i were the Giants i would try and get Manningham routes going to one side of the field and Nicks and Cruz’s routes going on the other side of the field and making the safeties make a choice where to go. Eli will have to make a decision where to go and depending on where he goes, it will decide the game. Manningham has a case of the dropsies here and there, but there’s no denying that all it may take is one or two huge plays and the Giants will be in business. If Manningham is torching them early watch for the Giants to get more favorable match ups against Cruz and Nicks and having no safety help and then it being just pitch and catch for the Giants. As for the running game, I think if the Giants get a huge day running the football game the Niners have absolutely NO shot of winning which is why I DONT think the Giants will have a great day running the football. But the Giants MUST stick to the run to keep the Niners honest. If they are playing coverage Jacobs and Bradshaw MUST get into the second layer with regularity.
4. Offense of the Niners vs. the defense of the Giants- This will be where the Niners MUST win. Up front that line will HAVE to give Frank Gore lanes to run. Its interesting that nobody is talking about this but this Giant front is playing the run SO much better even with only one true defensive tackle in there. In my opinion when its 3rd and 5 or 3rd and six, and the Giants show that NASCAR look, I would run the football. I know fans may not like it if they get stopped but that’s where the Niners must run it. They have to run it to Osi’s edge. If I were coaching the Niners I’d tell the Niner offensive lineman who’s going against Osi to hard sell the interior and give up the edge, IT WILL OPEN up huge holes. Osi can’t play the run. His biggest strength is when you line him up and its a passing down. Delayed hand offs, draws, running to his side will be good. Don’t run it to JPP’s side because even with a lack of real fundamental awareness, his long athletic body can make plays and so you don’t want to run into that. The Niners best bet is to run to the tackle side where Osi is and identify that area as to where the Niners will run the football. Once that happens, the Giants WILL keep Osi out of the field on more plays which can only benefit the Niners. I think you’ll see more of what the Niners did in the first game. Three step or five step drops at the most, identify the best match up adn go to it. I expect the Niners to attack whoever Aaron Ross is covering OR Prince Amukamara who will see extended action today as well. It will be interesting to see how the Giants play their safeties. Do they play them close to the line of scrimmage or keep one or two guys deep? The Niners will take three to five shots deep in this game and it will be interesting to see how and when they choose to do the play action. It will be run heavy early on in my estimation. The Giants will have to watch for Delanie Walker who made some huge first downs for the Niners because all of the attention was on Vernon Davis. Now, even more attention will be paid to Davis given his breakout performance against the Saints. The Giants may just put Michael Boley on him and have Jacquian Williams OR Deon Grant against Delanie Walker. They MUST make Vernon Davis a non factor and have Delanie Walker as a non factor as well. Alex Smith will look to his tight ends as I don’t think their routes will go deeper than seven yards. They are move the chains kind of guys. They will be used to get first downs and the more they stop them the more the Giants will get off the field. The Giants will need Corey Webster go against Michael Crabtree and have him put up a zero. The match up will be Aaron Ross/Prince Amukamara vs. a very hobbled Ted Ginn Jr. His speed is a nightmare which means that Prince will be in there to offset that. But a double move was seen as very effective against the rookie when the Giants faced the Packers this season and so expect on a few of those play action passes for Ginn to put a double move on the young’n and get points that way. The Giants win if they play tight coverage and FORCE Alex Smith to wait for receivers to open up. Again, he’s NOT going to beat himself and throw into tight windows. He will throw it away and take a three and out instead of give the team a short field because he knows his punter, Andy Lee WILL put the other team on their heels. The Giants will need to force a BUNCH of three and outs.
5. Special Teams- Andy Lee and David Akers are All-Pros at their position and Giant fans know about Akers history. He’s used to playing against Giants. He’s been a HUGE signing for the Niners and now they have the best special teams in California which is saying something when you share the same state as the Shane Lechler/Sebastian Janikowski tandem. Lee is the fifth most important player on the field today behind ONLY Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Justin Smith and Aldon Smith. Lee MUST put the Giants up against their backs. He’s done it all year so no doubt he does it again. Lee’s most important test will be to angle his kicks. I think Lee wants to kick it to the Giants special teams returner Will Blackmon because he’s not exactly the best option they have. With the wind and the slick ball CATCHING that football will be tough. If Lee booms punts and then suddenly there’s a slip and the Niners recover deep in Giants territory it could be bad news and the same for the Giants. Last year’s Matt Dodge experiment was a horrible failure and the Giants went and stole Steve Weatheford from the Jets. His directional punting has been a God-send to this team and shored up a glaring hole. It will be very interesting to see teams kick it straight up the middle or angle it a bit with the wind gusting at nearly 25 mph at game time and see how the ball lands. It could be a comedy of errors. It could be alot of short fields for both teams. It will be interesting to note how the teams handle punts if it lands anywhere inside the ten. Do you try and handle it? Do you just let it bounce and hope for a good bounce? I think both teams will concede punts inside the twenty even. They dont want to give either team a good field IF there is a mishap. The Niners have a clear advantage and the Niners will be happy with a field goal even if they don’t score seven on a horrible special teams mishap. The Giants faithful don’t have nearly the faith the Niner faithful do in their kicker so it will be interesting to see late in the game if the Giants are trailing IF they go for it on fourth down IN field goal range OR try and get closer through the field goal. But that means both teams will be wary of handling it which gives BOTH defenses the edge because BOTH teams will have to travel longer fields to score points. Lee is the more trust-worthy commodity so I would take him in this fight.
6. Coaching- I expect a few trick plays from Jim Harbaugh who is a slam dunk coach of the year candidate despite Tom Coughlin’s job late in the year. He woke up Justin Tuck and look at what a monster he’s been late in the season. Coughlin’s take it easy demeanor is in stark contrast to Jim Harbaugh who’s football INTENSE and OBSESSED. It works for both their teams and credit them for knowing what works. Harbaugh does an excellent job preparing his team for battle each Sunday. He’s never been blown out this year DESPITE not having a full training camp and despite having to mend a lot of relationships along the way. He’s done it his way. Coughlin is a steady manager and these last four Sundays while coaches are trying onside kicks in the second quarter and going for QB sneaks on fourth and one when it hasn’t worked already instead of taking the points, Coughlin’s steady hand at understanding game management has been on full display. He knows when to go for two. He knows when NOT to go for it on fourth down. Having a feel for your team at any given moment is a gift that only the truly great coaches have. Coughlin has that and I believe that Harbaugh has that. Look, Harbaugh is going to have one or two very sneaky plays that make you jump out of your seat like “Holy shit did he just do that?”. Like that 3rd and 7 QB bootleg that scored a TD late against the Saints. He has the guts to trust his team and their ability to execute. He’s coached them up well.
These are the reasons that this game will be close. All of these match ups are WAY too close to call. The slick weather and field and ball will make the Niners only really glaring advantage over the Giants completely moot. That is if the Giants don’t have a brain fart and try and handle a ball deep in their own territory and it turns the game because it becomes a turnover. I think the Giants allow the punts to go deep into their own territory and it will become so important for Weatheford to punt the Niners deep into their territory.
The Niners will come head hunting these Giants receivers. It will be important for the Giants to protect themselves against those hits and hope that they can make plays. The Giants won’t try and hit with shoulder pads they will wrap up on tackles because the Niners know the difficult of just trying to lay the lumber on these Giant receivers as Charlie Peprah found out. Peprah tried to come in hard with his shoulder and Nicks just bounced off him like a pinball and off he ran for a long touchdown which set the tone. The Niners MUST wrap up and i have no doubt they will.
No matter how much confidence Giant fans have, this will be a close game and even if you tried, I won’t predict a winner. Enjoy the NFC Championship game.
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