NFL Season Preview 2010

For the record, I’m not a fan of prediction pieces whenever one comes up.  It doesn’t make any sense.  Pardon the reference but anything can happen any given sunday so how can one possibly hope to tell the future?  But there’s a clause in the sportswriting rulebook that says I have to so that’s why I’m doing one.
What’s worse is that sports analysis has become a science run by nerds, breaking down every play and keeping stats for every possible situation.  Why does that make much worse?  Because the information overload has made it difficult to pick one stat to pay attention to and thus we’re more confused than when we started.

So I’ve decided to go back to the old gut feeling.  My pick for each division, each playoff and each award including my super bowl picks and the winner.

NFC West:
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. St Louis Rams

The Niners are everyones pick to win the division and I don’t see why I should deviate from that thinking.  They returned the most amount of key pieces that gave them success last year and with the Cards losing Kurt Warner and the Seahawks giving Pete Carroll the reins of the franchise.  The wild card is the Rams.  Sam Bradford is clearly the answer at QB, but their number one receiving threat went down for the season and Laurent Robinson won’t scare anyone.  The Niners won’t win more than 9 games and that’s all it will take to win this division: the worst division in football.

AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers
2. Oakland Raiders
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Denver Broncos

What’s a bigger surprise? That I picked the Raiders to place second in the division or that the Broncos will finish last? I love that the most surprising part of the Raiders draft was that their picks actually made sense.  Every few years Al Davis’ sanity comes back and this past offseason, it did in a way that even Raider fans had to be happy about.  They have a sneaky good defense and they got rid of Jamarcus Russell and upgraded to Jason Campbell (yeah, I said upgrade).  With the Chargers going the first few weeks without Vincent Jackson it seems like and LT Marcus McNeil, there’s no telling whether Ryan Mathews will emerge like everyone figures he will though with both those guys in tow it wouldve been an almost certainty.  Don’t be surprised with 2 and 3 switching slots, the New England crew is 3/4 complete and can help speed up the team in its current rebuilding phase.

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Panthers

This is again a highly unoriginal pick but the Saints have a lot of things going for them coming off a Super Bowl year.  They have one of the leagues most potent attacks on offense and with Drew Brees and Sean Payton they have the most stable pieces at the two most important positions on a football team.
The Falcons are the sexy pick in the division that routinely flip flops the last place team from the previous year with the first place team but I’m all but guaranteeing that it will not happen, which if anything counts as a surprise shocker!

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Tennessee Titans *
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars

There are two things I’m willing to bet comfortably with this division: the Colts will win atleast 12 games and no team will be a walk over in what’s quickly becoming the toughest division in the AFC.  The top 3 teams are legit playoff threats with the players capable of getting them deep into the playoffs.  In fact I think the wild card is coming out of the South.  The Titans started off last year 0-6, made the switch to Vince Young and reeled off an 8-2 finish.  Most would tell you that you should be careful about picking a team based off a hot finish but the Titans have the core of a team that has consistently done well and with Vince Young and Kenny Britt (I’m expecting him to take a huge leap forward), they should be a really good team.  As for the Colts, when they don’t do it, let me know and I will pick against them.

On a sidenote, the Colts are one of the teams that would be a reason to NOT have an 18 game regular season.  They are annual tankers, resting starters after having the division wrapped up by week 15 and you figure with a few extra weeks, whatever preseason games Colts fans will lose on the schedule they will get back in the later weeks when NBC is forced to run Colts games starring Curtis Painter.

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Minnesota Vikings *
3. Detroit Lions
4. Chicago Bears

The Packers are the “it” team and it wasn’t hard for them to make a statement early on by eeking past the Colts 59-24 where Aaron Rodgers threw for 3 TD’s in a half against the first team defense of the Colts.  The Vikings won’t be the same team and won’t win the division and I want to say they won’t  make the playoffs but that would be just to please the growing legion of Favre haters of whom I am one.  I see them being the other NFC Wild Card.  The Bears were the off season champs signing Julius Peppers, Chester Taylor and bringing in Mike Martz to run their offense.  Unfortunately Mike Martz hasn’t coached a really good team since he inherited the Rams from a retiring Dick Vermeil.  Cutler will only have an identical season as last year because I just don’t think Mike Martz will be any good.  The big surprise I can see is the Lions who are putting pieces together that will translate to more success.  They still are a draft away but getting a franchise defensive tackle in Ndamakong Suh and perhaps a franchise RB in Jahvid Best who already is penciled in as the starter in the first round means they are getting better at that drafting thing that Matt Millen always had problems with.  They will give the rest of the teams in this division fits.

AFC North
1. Bengals
2. Ravens *
3. Steelers
4. Browns

If you’re a fan of Peter King and Sports Illustrated, he recently picked the Steelers to beat the Packers in the Super Bowl.  As you can see, I don’t have the Steel curtain even making the playoffs.  Surprised? I think people are under estimating the challenge the first four games present in which they will be without Ben Roethlisberger whom everyone believes will automatically come back to being the Pro Bowl QB.  Their offense will have problems and without Santonio Holmes, they may need a year to adjust.  I loved what the Bengals did this year and their drafts just keep bringing in winning DNA which is important when you are trying to build on what they accomplished yesterday.  The Bengals have the best corner combo in the NFL with respect to the one in Green Bay and the one that will premier in New York with the Jets.  They also have TO and Ocho Cinco forming quite the pair and while many assume that the pairing will bring chaos, it ca, only happen if Carson under performs.  Along with Jermaine Gresham (who I predict will have a huge year), the offense will take a step up and ensure that the team will have more good headlines than bad.
I know a lot of people have the Ravens in the super bowl, but their secondary will be ripe for the picking and I’m still not ready to give all the props to Joe Flacco despite him having the ultimate QB name which has to count for a few wins all by itself.  As for the Browns, oh Mangenious.

NFC East
1. NY Giants
2. Dallas Cowboys *
3. Washington Redskins
4. Philadelphia Eagles

There is no shame in being last place in a division where 9-7 might not be good enough for 3rd place.  There were only two logical teams for me to take the division: the Giants and Cowboys.  Those were the two that had the least amount of major turnover.  The Redskins changed their QB and coach and the Eagles went away from the certainty of Donovan McNabb (though if you talk to Eagle fans, what they would be guaranteed is something of dispute), and I think the Giants and Cowboys are better than the two latter teams who are going through bigger changes than either will admit to.  I think the Giants are in for an 11-5 season or 12-4 based on nothing more than gut thinking.  Their defense will be markedly improved and as always a Wade Phillips team will come down to earth from its lofty expectations.  Though looking back, most teams will regret not taking Dez Bryant.  He will be this generation’s Randy Moss.  The Redskins could be a sneaky group because their defense was far better than what the record showed from last season thus leaving 8-8 Philly in last place.

AFC East
1. New York Jets
2. Miami Dolphins
3. New England Patriots
4. Buffalo Bills

Aside from what could truly be a brutal year for the Buffalo Bills, the AFC East could join its brethren in the NFC as one of the toughest divisions where any of the top 3 could be a playoff team.  The Jets are the obvious choice, getting all the hype and hoopla and now with Revis back in tow, they should be Super Bowl favorites.  Or should they? Preseason doesn’t mean anything but the offense left much to be desired considering the eliteness of their defense. Tom Brady is in his second year after knee surgery which in most instances when a player is actually back to 100%, but their defense will be a mess and with no running game again, there will be very little balance to the Patriots.  I love what the Dolphins did in the offseason and GM, Team President/cZar Bill Parcells clearly sees a team built for now and attacked in bolstering what is clearly the weak link in the offense: the passing attack and got a top 5 receiver just about in his prime.  They have a very good QB in Chad Henne and watch out for Ricky Williams who has been running like he means it.

AFC playoffs:
(WC)
Titans def. Bengals
Ravens def. Chargers

(Div)
Jets def Titans
Colts def Ravens

(Champ.)
Jets def Colts

NFC playoffs
(WC)
Giants def San Fran
Cowboys def Vikings

(Div)
Green Bay def Giants
Cowboys def Saints

(Champ)
Green Bay def Cowboys

Super Bowl
Jets def Green Bay

Jet fans, I don’t know if I completely destroyed your season or made it, but I am very high on them.  They have done enough to make me believe that their defense will make two scores enough to win almost every game and keep them competitive in every single one.

As for the individual awards:

NFL MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

NFL Defensive Player of the Year: Darrelle Revis, New York Jets

NFL Rookie of the Year: Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions

There’s a good chance I could be wrong on everything but what would I be if I depended on facts and numbers to guide what my gut probably does a better job at?  Enjoy the NFL SEASON!